When Tim Draper talks about good tech investments with enormous profit potential, markets listen. Some of the Silicon Valley venture capitalist’s winning picks include Baidu, Skype, Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitch.
In 2014, Draper made a massive bet on bitcoin. He spent just shy of $19 million for 30,000 BTC sold by U.S. authorities at auction.
Outbidding everyone else, it looked like Draper paid a premium for the coin then. But today that 30,000 BTC is worth over $200 million with the bitcoin price above $7,000.
He thinks it’ll be worth $7.5 billion in two years at the $250,000 price point.
In an interview with BlockTV this week, Draper said:
If you run a technical analysis, it looks like it’ll be something like six months to a year after the halving that we will cross $250,000 per bitcoin.
He followed up the prediction with some classic understatement:
So, um, yeah, it might be an interesting buying opportunity.
Draper sees the value in bitcoin’s features and benefits as a financial product:
I’m so frustrated with the banks just taking two and a half to four percent every time I swipe my credit card. I’m ready for this new currency.
Critics have called bitcoin a ponzi scheme and likened its ground shaking price boom over the last decade to the Tulip mania of the 17th century.
But it’s not as if Tim Draper is viewing the bitcoin price through rose-tinted lenses. He even predicted its price would fall back in September 2018, right before it did:
The Internet started in the same way. It came in big waves and then it kind of came crashing down. And then the next wave comes concentrated but much bigger. I suspect the same thing will go on here.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee went on CNBC to discuss the $250,000 bitcoin price prediction.
When you look at this on a log basis, the idea that bitcoin would get there would be consistent with the idea it’s a generational trade. I don’t know if 24 months is how long it will take…
The Fast Money anchor opened the segment by balking at the prediction, but noting the source is credible:
I don’t know if we should talk about it, because I felt like it was so bold, it’s almost irresponsible. But Draper – he’s a well known guy. He’s not going to say anything he doesn’t believe.
A Fast Money analyst said bitcoin could get there if it rivals gold for market share:
If bitcoin were at $250,000, that would be about a four and a half trillion dollar market cap, which would be about half the market cap of all the gold in the world. And so I think Tim Draper thinks… bitcoin is going to take market share from gold.
Bitcoin’s current market cap is $130 billion. If Draper’s prediction holds true, that would mean the exodus of trillions of dollars from other markets to bitcoin.
That could suggest bitcoin competes with gold for market share as a gold substitute. But it could indicate that when money leaves Wall Street, a lot of it ends up in bitcoin.
Other Silicon Valley heavyweights who would generally agree with Tim Draper’s assessment of bitcoin’s prospects include Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, Apple founder Steve Wozniak, and PayPal founder Peter Thiel.
Last modified: January 22, 2020 11:40 PM UTC