Key Takeaways
- Thune did not file cloture on August 5; Kalshi now prices a pre-recess vote at 10% and passage in 2026 at roughly 30%.
- Hawley became the first Republican to publicly oppose the bill, citing Missouri banking and agriculture groups; Rand Paul expected to follow.
- White House began reviewing Gallego’s ethics text on August 5, but no deal has been confirmed; the Senate leaves on August 10.
Senator Cynthia Lummis posted on X on August 5 that she believes the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess, adding that after 11 months of negotiating with Democrats and adding more than 300 pages to the bill at their request, it is simply time to get people on the record.
The statement was as much a political ultimatum as a legislative prediction.
Why the CLARITY Act’s Senate Vote Is Slipping Away
Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file a cloture motion on Wednesday, August 5, the ordinary deadline under Rule XXII for producing a procedural vote by Friday, August 7.
Without that filing, the Senate can no longer follow its normal process to hold a vote before the August 10 recess. Lummis told reporters she believes the Senate could extend its session into next week to accommodate a vote, but no such extension has been announced, and no procedural vehicle for the bill has been confirmed.
Kalshi now estimates a 43% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law before July 1, 2027. Polymarket prices 2026 passage at 14%, down from a February peak of above 80%.
Galaxy Research cut its estimate to 30%. Bernstein said failing to pass the bill before recess could accelerate SEC and CFTC rulemaking under the Trump administration’s Project Crypto initiative as an alternative path.
Hawley Becomes the First Republican to Publicly Break Ranks
The biggest setback this week came from within the Republican Party. Senator Josh Hawley announced on Aug. 5 that he would oppose the CLARITY Act, citing concerns from Missouri banking and agricultural groups that stablecoin rewards and crypto yield products could drain deposits from community banks.
Hawley’s opposition, combined with expected resistance from Senator Rand Paul, would reduce Republican support to 51 votes, increasing the number of Democratic votes needed to overcome a filibuster from seven to nine.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pushed back, arguing that senators should rely on data rather than the banking lobby’s claims, and accusing the industry of protecting large banks’ profits rather than community banks.
Democrats: Ethics Remains the Wall
Senator Thom Tillis said on Aug. 5 that the White House has begun reviewing the bipartisan ethics proposal submitted by Senator Ruben Gallego, which includes restrictions on senior officials’ crypto activities. However, no agreement has been reached.
The ethics dispute remains the biggest obstacle to the CLARITY Act. Senators Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen, and Jeff Merkley oppose the current draft, while Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks have yet to recommit their support after withdrawing backing for the July 22 version.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker also continue to criticize the bill over ethics, consumer protection, and illicit finance concerns, while other Democratic committee members have not changed their opposition.
A Senate Banking Committee analysis further argued the legislation could allow President Trump to continue profiting from crypto ventures while overseeing the industry’s regulation.
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Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
