Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin climbed back above $64,000 as traders awaited the Fed’s July interest rate decision.
- Markets expect a rate hold, but surprise hike bets remain unusually elevated.
- Traders are eyeing $64,450 as key resistance while options signal potential upside toward $72,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $64,000 level during Wednesday’s Asian session, rising 1% on the day with the broader market in the green ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, while Ether (ETH) added 1.7% to $1,909 and XRP led the majors with a 2.6% gain. Recovery from Tuesday’s dip toward $63,200 restores the largest cryptocurrency to the middle of its recent range after a retreat from last week’s one-month high above $66,400.
Wednesday marks only Chair Kevin Warsh‘s second meeting in charge, and pricing remains unusually contested for decision day. About 70% of traders expect a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, which would extend the pause to a sixth straight meeting, while roughly 30% price a quarter-point hike, per CME data.
Hike bets have serious backers: Citadel Securities told clients it expects a surprise increase this week to shore up Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility, and UBS said such a move would not surprise it. Notably, the roughly 35% hike probability represents an unusually high level of uncertainty this late in the cycle, since Fed moves are normally almost fully priced for a single outcome by this stage.
Odds have repriced at speed. CME FedWatch put the probability of a hike near 38% on July 24, up from 10.7% on July 15, one of the fastest repricings of a Fed meeting in recent memory. Energy-driven inflation underpins the shift, though Tuesday’s ADP print of just 15,000 jobs added complicated the picture, offering policymakers a cooling labor signal right before a decision dominated by inflation concerns.
Warsh has offered markets little to anchor on. June’s meeting produced a unanimous hold, a shortened statement stripped of its earlier easing bias, and a dot plot showing that 9 of 18 officials penciled in at least one 2026 hike, lifting the median year-end rate to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Warsh told Congress on July 14 that the Fed has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.”
Warsh’s Silence Is the Signal
Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and CEO of deobanking infrastructure provider WeFi, told CCN he expects the committee to hold and lean deliberately hawkish.
“Inflation remains above target, energy shocks are keeping price risks tilted higher, and the committee has no reason to validate expectations for easier policy. Warsh’s decision not to submit a projection at his first meeting showed that he is comfortable leaving markets without a clean map. I expect him to do the same in September and to force markets to price policy through incoming data,” Sakharov said.
Sakharov warned that reticence carries its own cost. “Crypto investors should prepare for a higher risk premium across liquidity-sensitive assets. A less predictable Fed can tighten financial conditions solely through uncertainty. Bitcoin will feel that pressure well before it reaches the broader economy.”
Options Traders Position for $72,000
Derivatives desks lean toward upside resolution. Notably, options traders have purchased around $2.5 billion in notional Bitcoin call spreads expiring July 31, positions that would benefit from a move toward $72,000 after the announcement.
Fund flows tell a more cautious story after a seven-session, $999 million ETF inflow streak broke on July 23 with a $225 million outflow, leaving 2026 flows roughly $4.5 billion in the red following June’s record $4.5 billion outflow month.
Konstantins Vasilenko, co-founder and CBDO of Paybis, told CCN the June omission of Warsh’s dot fits a deliberate communication strategy. “Investors have read the omission as fence-sitting, though it fits a Chair who would prefer markets stopped leaning so heavily on forward guidance.”
“Our expectation for July 29 is a hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, paired with a statement about as terse as June’s 130 words. If the committee does move before year-end, tightening looks likelier than easing, and we would be careful about pricing cuts into this year,” Vasilenko said.
On flows, Vasilenko sees measured repair. “July has delivered three straight weeks of net inflows after June’s record $4.5 billion outflow month — institutional demand is repairing, not chasing. A more reticent Fed leaves digital assets to trade on their own merits, which we see as a healthier foundation for the cycle.”
Levels Traders Are Watching
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,248.88, leaving it just 0.3% below the historical P10 stress threshold of $64,450, according to data shared by analyst David. That makes $64,450 the first key level traders are watching. A decisive move back above it would return BTC to a valuation range that has historically marked the end of extreme stress periods and the beginning of stronger recoveries.
On the downside, traders are focused on the $64,000 level as immediate support. Holding above it suggests buyers are continuing to absorb selling pressure, while a break below could open the door to another test of the $62,000-$63,000 region.
Onchain metrics remain mixed. Data from Darkfost shows long-term holders (LTHs) account for 5.1% of total Bitcoin exchange inflows on a 90-day moving average, one of the highest readings on record and just below the 5.5% peak seen in 2020. While elevated LTH inflows can increase short-term selling pressure, the 90-day smoothing also suggests the trend may begin to ease if recent selling activity slows.
Despite that caution, David’s historical analysis remains constructive. Across 36 completed P10 stress episodes, Bitcoin reclaimed the P10 threshold 78% of the time within seven days, 86% within 30 days, and 97% within 90 days, with every previous episode recovering above the level within one year.
For now, traders are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold $64,450 as resistance while monitoring exchange inflows from long-term holders for signs that distribution is beginning to subside.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
