Bitcoin price action has been slow during quiet Sunday trade. The bears continue preferring to place orders below price, rather than pro-actively trading the market. Upside is becoming strained but may continue grinding higher until more participation, on Monday, capitulates the bearish chart technicals.
Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The different exchange charts are starting to diverge in their alignments and indications. The Bitstamp chart is not as bearish as the CNY charts and others, so let’s read it:
The 1hr chart shows that the stochastics have now grouped at their upper extreme. MACD has not yet touched its upper Bollinger Band and RSI has not yet convincingly diverged to the previous highs, as illustrated with a blue arrow above the recent peaks.
The implication is that the move up is not yet complete. Once price reaches the 1-hour 200MA (at the magenta arrow) we can anticipate that RSI will have diverged and that reversal, to the downside, will occur.
For decline to gain momentum, it is critical that the bears wrestle price below the $400 (Bitstamp) and 2600 CNY level. Failure to get below these levels risks locking bitcoin price into a longer consolidation above $400 which will lack profitable range and introduce difficult-to-read corrective price action.
Traders holding short positions should be prepared to close position if price pushes above the red 200MA, since the bulls will probably return price to the vicinity of $418 and, again, remain passive until the next leg of decline. A reversal to the downside, from the 1-hour 200MA, is unlikely to break below $400 today, since more participants will be required, on Monday, to sell price lower.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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