Home / Price Predictions / Solana Price Prediction 2024: SOL Price Analysis

Solana Price Prediction 2024: SOL Price Analysis

Last Updated June 28, 2024 9:24 AM
Valdrin Tahiri
Last Updated June 28, 2024 9:24 AM
By Valdrin Tahiri
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • Solana was the best performer in the latter half of 2023 but has fallen since its yearly high in March.
  • The blockchain uses something called a Proof-of-History consensus mechanism to add blocks to its blockchain, mint coins, and reward users.
  • Our price predictions suggest that SOL will reach a new all-time high by the end of the year.

Solana faced challenges in 2023, including being accused by the SEC of being an unregistered security, though a court ruling on Ripple’s XRP coin brought some hope to SOL holders. Visa’s use of the USDC stablecoin on Solana in September and the 1.16 update in October contributed to its resurgence, which continued into December with renewed interest in the platform and buzz around spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Solana has made a notable recovery since experiencing a five-hour outage on February 6, 2024. Despite this being its first outage in nearly a year, it marked the 11th such event in two years. There has been some Solana ETF buzz after VanEck filed for a Solana trust in June.

Solana did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

But what is Solana  (SOL)? How does Solana work? What is Solana used for? Let’s take a look at our own SOL price prediction, made on June 28, 2024. We’ll also examine the SOL price history, and we will talk a little about what SOL is and what it does.

Solana Price Prediction

There are two methods used to create our SOL price predictions. More specifically predictions are created using fractals (mirroring movements and indicator readings) and the wave count.

The mean of the two predictions gives the average SOL price prediction, the more bullish one is used for the maximum price prediction while the more bearish one for the minimum.

Minimum Solana Price Prediction Average Solana Price Prediction Maximum Solana Price Prediction
2024 $252 $346 $440
2025 $71 $123 $175
2030 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500

Fractal Method

In September 2020, the weekly MACD moved into positive territory. Shortly afterward, the price created a long-term ascending parallel channel. The SOL price reached its all-time high after three touches of this channel (red icons), and failed to reach the resistance in the last touch.

The MACD briefly made a bearish cross (red circle) between the second and third touches, before making a bullish cross and increasing once more.

A very similar movement has transpired in 2023. The SOL price created an ascending parallel channel shortly after the MACD moved into positive territory. So far, there have been three touches of this channel.

If the previous pattern is followed, the next one will market the market cycle top. The MACD has already made a bearish cross (red circle), and the next upward movement is likely to put the indicator in positive territory again.

Solana Fractal Price Prediction
SOL/USD Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

The main difference between the two movements is that the MACD made a bearish cross after the second touch in 2021 and after the third one in 2024. If the pattern is followed and has the same duration, SOL will reach a new all-time high of $560 in September 2024. Then, a lengthy correction can begin.

Projecting these movements leads to prices of $252 at the end of 2024 and $71 at the end of 2025.

Wave Count Method

The wave count suggests SOL is in wave four of a five-wave upward movement that started in January 2023 (white). Wave three has extended while wave four is likely contained inside a symmetrical triangle. The sub-wave count is in black.

Using the length of wave one and the 3.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four, a potential target between $450-$484 is likely for the top of the current upward movement.

Giving waves four and five 0.61 times the length of waves one through three implies the high will be reached in December. Then, a correction that lasts 0.61 times as long as the entire upward movement and ends in wave four territory leads to a price of $120 in February 2026.

 

Solana Wave Count Prediction
SOL/USD 3-Day Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

The wave count method gives targets of $440 and $175 at the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Finally, we use the rate of increase during the past three years to make a prediction for the end of 2030. The SOL price has increased by 354% since June 2021, leading to a daily rate of increase of 0.32%.

SOL Price Prediction 2030
SOL/USD Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Projecting this rate of increase until the end of 2030 leads to a price of $1,250. Adding and removing 20% to this target leads to our minimum and maximum SOL price predictions.

Solana Price Prediction for 2024

Our fractal and wave count price predictions give targets of $252 and $440 for the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively. Interestingly, the fractal method predicts a new all-time high of $560 in 2024, while the wave count instead indicates SOL will reach a top between $450-$484.

However, the assumption is that the high will be reached earlier in the fractal method, hence SOL will be further along in its correction by the end of the year, explaining the lower price.

Solana Price Prediction for 2025

The 2025 price prediction is between $71 and $175 based on the fractal and wave count methods, respectively. The fractal method gives a lower prediction once more. While the price will be at similar levels of its correction in both possibilities, the fractal method predicts a deeper retracement.

Solana Price Prediction for 2030

The SOL price prediction for the end of 2030 uses the current rate of increase. A price between $1,000 and $1,500 is likely if a similar rate of increase continues for the foreseeable future.

Solana Price Analysis

The most plausible wave count suggests that Solana is currently in the fourth wave of a five-wave upward sequence that began in December 2022. Wave three reached its peak at the 2024 high of $210, initiating the present correction, which appears to be wave four.

While this scenario is the most probable, there is some ambiguity regarding the sub-wave count within this corrective phase. The primary hypothesis is that wave four has formed a symmetrical triangle, a typical pattern for a wave four correction.

If this assumption holds, SOL’s price will need to complete sub-waves D and E before resuming its upward trajectory (yellow).

Solana Wave Count
SOL/USDT 2-Day Chart | Credit: TradingView

An alternative, more bearish scenario suggests that SOL is instead finalizing an A-B-C corrective structure (black). In this case, SOL would break down from the triangle and complete sub-wave C below the sub-wave A bottom at $116.

The final target for wave five will depend on the bottom of wave four. However, a preliminary estimate places it at $267, based on the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of sub-wave A, which would mark a new all-time high for SOL.

Short-Term Solana Price Prediction

The short-term Solana price prediction is based on the movement inside of the triangle as part of wave four. If the previous analysis is correct, the Solana price will gradually increase toward the triangle’s resistance trend line.

Solana Wave Count
SOL/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

The Solana price prediction for the next 24 hours suggests SOL will still trade within the triangle’s confines, likely in a range between $140 and $150.

Then, SOL could potentially trade near $155 by the end of next week, nearing the end of sub-wave D. Finally, SOL is likely to complete sub-wave E by the end of July, possibly at a price of $140.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Solana

Blockchain analytics company Messari released its quarterly report on Solana . In it, they highlighted that Solana had experienced growth across a wide range of metrics, and outlined some key advantages and disadvantages of the blockchain.

They found Solana had

  • An average market cap of $86.4 billion, up year-on-year from $7.9 billion and up from $43.8 billion quarter-on-quarter.
  • Quarterly revenue of $98.8 million, up from $3.7 million from the same time in 2022, and up from $13.7 million the previous quarter.
  • An average of 596,900 daily fee-paying customers, up from 190,300 quarter-on-quarter and up from 129,300 year-on-year.
  • Had $86.4 million raised, up from $57.1 million quarter-on-quarter and up from $20 million year-on-year.

Advantages of Solana

Messari said that Solana had

  • A widespread and active user base.
  • A strong roadmap for future development.
  • Become a crucial place for memecoin traders and retail users.

Disadvantages of Solana

Messari also said that Solana

  • Saw the amount of SOL staked fall significantly.
  • Was becoming less diverse.
  • Had inefficiencies in its fee markets.

Solana Price History

Now, let’s examine some of the highlights and lowlights of the Solana price history. While we should never take past performance as an indicator of future results, knowing what the coin has achieved can provide us with some very useful context if we want to make or interpret a Solana price prediction.

2020-2021:
In early 2020, SOL was priced around $0.90, rising to nearly $50 by April 2021. August saw it break the $100 barrier, and it reached an all-time high of $260.06 in November 2021.

2022:
A challenging year saw SOL drop below $200 early on, fall under $100 in March, and crash below $10 by year’s end due to the FTX exchange bankruptcy.

2023:
SOL began recovering, reaching $25 in February and April, but dropping to $13.38 in June after SEC lawsuits and Crypto.com news. It rebounded to $22.15 in October and peaked at $125.19 in December, closing the year at $101.51, a 900% annual increase.

2024:
January saw SOL peak at $106.94 before dipping to $79.07. It recovered to $114 in February, reached $210 in April and beginning the current correction. The performance in July so far has been positive.

Solana Price History
Solana Price History | Credit: CoinGecko

 

Period Solana Price
Today (June 28, 2024) $144.75
Last Week (June 21, 2024) $133.34
Last Month (May 28, 2024) $169.81
Three Months Ago (March 28, 2024) $186.14
Last Year (June 28, 2023) $18.02
Launch price (April 11, 2020) $0.9511
All-time high (November 7, 2021) $258.78
All-time low (June 17, 2020) $0.5855

SOL Performance Comparison

Solana is a blockchain that deal with smart contracts. So, let’s compare it with other projects in the same category that have similar market capitalizations.

Current Price One Year Ago Price Change
Ethereum $3,466 $1,828 84.3%
Avalanche $27.54 $12.34 105.5%
Cardano $0.39 $0.26 38.2%
Solana $145.14 $18.93 791%

The analysis reveals the SOL price has been by far and away the best performing cryptocurrency from this category.

Who owns the most Solana (SOL)?

As of June 27, 2024, the five wallets with the most SOL tokens  were

  • MJKqp326RZCHnAAbew9MDdui3iCKWco7fsK9sVuZTX2. The wallet holds 5,178,991 SOL, or 1.01% of the supply.
  • 52C9T2T7JRojtxumYnYZhyUmrN7kqzvCLc4Ksvjk7TxD. The wallet holds 4,371,056 SOL, or 0.85% of the supply.
  • 52C9T2T7JRojtxumYnYZhyUmrN7kqzvCLc4Ksvjk7TxD. The wallet holds 3,927,080 SOL, or 0.77% of the supply.
  • GitYucwpNcg6Dx1Y15UQ9TQn8LZMX1uuqQNn8rXxEWNC. The wallet holds 3,628,341 SOL, or 0.71% of the supply.
  • 9uRJ5aGgeu2i3J98hsC5FDxd2PmRjVy9fQwNAy7fzLG3. The wallet holds 3,141,238 SOL, or 0.61% of the supply.

SOL is quite decentralized, with only one wallet holding more than 1% of the total supply.

Supply and distribution Figures
Total supply 579,075,820
Circulating supply as of June 28, 2024 462,350,390 (79% of total supply)
Holder distribution as of June 28, 204 Top 10 holders own 6.58% of the total supply

From the Whitepaper

Solana’s technical documentation, or whitepaper , says that the system is designed to be quicker and easier to use than other blockchains.

One word of warning, though. The whitepaper is full of jargon, with sentences like “When used alongside a consensus algorithm such as Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS), PoH can reduce messaging overhead in a Byzantine Fault Tolerant replicated state machine, resulting in sub-second finality times” likely to confuse the average reader.

Solana Explained

Blockchains can be slow. While this is especially true for Proof-of-Work (PoW) chains like Bitcoin, which use people solving mathematical equations to add blocks to the blockchain,  it can also be true for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) chains such as Ethereum, too.

The Solana blockchain aims to solve this problem. It uses something called Proof-of-History (PoH) to grow its chain and reward its users. It promises people 2,000 transactions per second. 

Solana is part of the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi is based on the idea that people would be able to access financial services without having to bother going through traditional banks. It supports a variety of decentralized applications (DApps), such as the Audius music-sharing program and the Phantom Wallet. 

The SOL coin, which is used to reward the people who help run the network, powers the system. The coin can also be staked in return for voting rights, and it can also be bought, sold, and traded on exchanges. 

How Solana Works

Solana’s unique selling point is its Proof-of-History consensus mechanism. This works by creating a series of timestamps, which show who held how much crypto at what particular point. In turn, this enables the data to be accurate and fair. 

PoH has allowed Solana to have a range of other functions. These include

  • The SeaLevel transaction processor.
  • The Turbine data distribution system.
  • Gulf Stream, which is used to move transaction caching across the network.
  • The Tower Byzantine Fault Tolerance system, which allows it to calculate values.
  • Pipeline, which also helps with transaction processing.
  • Archivers, which helps with data storage.

SOL powers the system. Holders can stake it, or set it aside, in return for voting rights. People can also buy, sell, and trade it on exchanges.

Is Solana a Good Investment?

Solana is one of the largest cryptocurrencies out there by market cap. Its recent rise pretty much mirrors its strong performance in the second half of 2021, when it went from an also-ran to a major player.

The ecosystem keeps growing, also thanks to the integration of new players like PYUSD, and this may be a positive catalyst for the SOL price. Memecoins, liquid staking and decentralized exchanges in Solana have enjoyed a resurgence, while the blockchain leads activity metrics such as transactions and active addresses.

On the other hand, the crypto has been rather volatile lately and we still don’t know whether it can maintain the sort of development it enjoyed earlier in the year.

As ever, you will need to be careful, do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Another worrisome development is the nearly 90% decline in Stablecoin volume  since January 2024, possibly because of manipulated data.

Will Solana Go Up or Down?

The short-term SOL price prediction is bullish, since the wave count implies the wave four correction has nearly ended. After more consolidation, an eventual breakout that completes wave five by the end of the year is predicted by various methods. Conversely, breaking down from the triangle will indicate the trend is still bearish.

Should I Invest in Solana?

Before you decide whether or not to invest in Solana, you will need to do your research, not only on SOL, but on other, similar cryptos such as Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA).

Ultimately, though, you will have to make this decision for yourself. Remember that prices can go down as well as up and that you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose. 

Solana Attention Tracker

Solana Search Volume
Solana Google Search Volume | Credit : Google Trends

Here is a chart for Solana’s Google search volume for the past 90 days. This represents how many times the term “Solana SOL” has been Googled over the previous 90 days.

FAQs

How many Solana are there?

As of June 28, 2024, there were about 462 million SOL in circulation, out of a total supply of around 579 million.

Will Solana reach $1,000?

Our long-term Solana price prediction for the end of 2030 gives a range between $1,000 and $1,500 for the end of 2030.

What is Solana used for?

The SOL coin supports the Solana blockchain. People can also buy, sell, and trade it on exchanges. 

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about this information’s completeness, reliability and accuracy. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.