Solana Price Prediction 2025: SOL Price Analysis Suggests Short-term Downturn, Long-term Rise

Key Takeaways

• Solana performed well in 2023 and 2024, peaking at an all-time high in November last year.
• The blockchain uses a proof-of-history consensus mechanism to add blocks, mint coins and reward users.
• Our price predictions suggest that SOL could drop to $140 by the end of this year.

Solana (SOL) faced challenges in 2023, including being accused by the SEC of being an unregistered security, though a court ruling on Ripple’s XRP coin brought some hope to SOL holders.

Visa’s use of the USDC stablecoin on Solana in September and the 1.16 update in October 2024 contributed to its resurgence. It continued into December with renewed interest in the platform and buzz around spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After VanEck filed for a Solana trust in June, there was some Solana ETF buzz. Meanwhile, PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin moved from Ethereum to Solana.

In September, Franklin Templeton’s Head of Partnership Development, Mike Reed, said the investment firm would launch a group of funds on Solana.

Meanwhile, November’s crypto surge saw it reach a new all-time high of $263.83 on Nov. 23, before dropping. On Jan. 7, 2025, SOL was worth about $214.95.

Let’s examine our price predictions for Solana, made on Jan. 7, 2025. We will also examine the SOL price history and discuss what Solana is and does.

Solana Price Prediction

Let’s look at the Solana price predictions made by CCN on Jan. 7, 2025. The predictions will be made using the wave count method. We will add and remove 20% from the final targets to create the minimum and maximum SOL price predictions.

The wave count suggests SOL is in the fifth and final wave of an upward movement that started in January 2023 (white). Wave three extended, while wave four possibly ended with a decrease on Aug. 5. 

Using the length of wave one and the 3.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four, a potential target between $368 and $390 is likely for the top of the current upward movement.

Giving waves four and five 0.61 times the length of waves one through three implies the high will be reached in April 2025. Then, a correction that lasts 0.61 times as long as the entire upward movement and ends in wave four territory leads to a price of $160 in December 2026.

The wave count method gives targets of $175 and $75 at the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Finally, we use the rate of increase during the past three years to predict Solana’s price at the end of 2030. The SOL price has increased by 354% since June 2021, leading to a daily rate of increase of 0.32%.

Projecting this rate of increase until the end of 2030 leads to a price of $1,250. Adding and removing 20% to this target leads to our minimum and maximum SOL price predictions.

Solana Price Prediction for 2025

The wave count method gives a Solana price prediction range between $140 and $210 for the end of 2025.

Solana Price Prediction for 2026

The wave count method gives a Solana price prediction range between $60 and 90 for the end of 2026.

Solana Price Prediction for 2030

The SOL price prediction for the end of 2030 uses the current rate of increase. If a similar rate of increase continues for the foreseeable future, a price between $1,000 and $1,500 is likely.

SOL Price Analysis

The short-term count confirms this, since Solana has completed a textbook fourth wave pullback, which happens when SOL returns to the middle of a parallel channel to complete wave four.

The channel is created by connecting waves one and two. SOL also broke out from a short-term descending resistance trend line, adding validity to this bullish count.

In case of an extension, SOL can reach $416-$418, targeting the 1.61 Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop since the 2021 high.

Short-Term SOL Price Prediction

The SOL price prediction for the next 24 hours is bullish. Solana can accelerate its increase by breaking out from its ascending parallel channel again.

Solana Average True Range (ATR): SOL Volatility

The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values: The current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days.

A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility.

On Jan. 7, the ATR for SOL was 12.12, a sign of relatively low volatility.

Solana Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is SOL Oversold or Overbought?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Movements above 70 and below 30 show over and undervaluation, respectively. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish.

On Jan. 7, 2025, Solana’s RSI was at 55, suggesting somewhat bullish conditions.

Solana Market Cap to TVL Ratio

The Market Cap to Total Value Locked (TVL) ratio  measures the valuation of a decentralized finance (DeFi) project by comparing its market capitalization to the total value of assets locked in its smart contracts.

This ratio shows the project’s utilization and links the platform’s health to locked asset value.

A ratio above 1.0 indicates overvaluation, because the market cap exceeds the value of assets used in the platform. A ratio below 1.0 indicates undervaluation, because the market cap is lower than the value of locked assets.

On Oct. 21, 2024, the Solana TVL ratio was 10.97, indicating overvaluation.

CCN Strength Index

The CCN Strength Index combines an array of advanced market signals to measure the strength of individual cryptocurrencies over the last 30 days.

Every day, it assigns a strength score, ranging from 0 to 100, to the top 500 assets by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap, focusing on both trend direction and the intensity of price movements.

• 0 to 24: Assets exhibit significant weakness, showing signs of sustained downtrend behavior.
• 25 to 35: The price tends to move within stable bounds with minimal volatility.
• 36 to 49: Assets begin a stable uptrend but without strong surges.
• 50 to 59: Consistent growth with moderate price advances, building momentum.
• 60+: Sharp price movements and high demand indicate stronger volatility and trend shifts.

The index dynamically adapts to rapid changes. For example, an asset experiencing a 100% increase within a short timeframe would see a sharp jump in its score to reflect the intensity of the rise.

However, should that asset stabilize at this new price level, the score will gradually taper down and align with the dampened momentum as the movement normalizes. The same principle applies to rapid declines: a sudden drop will spike the score downward, but as volatility decreases, the score will slowly adjust back up.

On Jan. 7, 2025, Solana scored 39.5 on the CCN Index, suggesting moderate momentum.

Best Days and Months to Buy Solana

We examined the SOL price history and found the lowest prices on certain days, months, quarters, and even weeks in the year, indicating the best times to buy Solana.

SOL Performance Comparison

Solana is a blockchain for smart contracts. Let’s compare it with other projects in the same category with similar market capitalizations.

Solana Price History

Now, let’s examine some of the key dates in the Solana price history . While we should never take past performance as an indicator of future results, knowing what the coin has achieved can provide us with some very useful context if we want to make or interpret a Solana price prediction.

Solana Market Cap

The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of SOL in circulation multiplied by their price.

On Jan. 7, 2025, Solana’s market cap was $103.96 billion, making it the sixth-largest crypto by that metric.

Who owns the most Solana (SOL)?

On Jan. 7, 2025, one wallet held a little more than 1% of the supply of Solana.

Richest SOL Wallet Addresses

As of Jan. 7, 2025, the five wallets with the most SOL tokens were:

• MJKqp326RZCHnAAbew9MDdui3iCKWco7fsK9sVuZTX2. The wallet holds 5,178,991 SOL or 1.01% of the supply.
• 52C9T2T7JRojtxumYnYZhyUmrN7kqzvCLc4Ksvjk7TxD. The wallet holds 4,371,056 SOL or 0.85% of the supply.
• 8BseXT9EtoEhBTKFFYkwTnjKSUZwhtmdKY2Jrj8j45Rt. The wallet holds 3,927,080 SOL or 0.77% of the supply.
• GitYucwpNcg6Dx1Y15UQ9TQn8LZMX1uuqQNn8rXxEWNC. The wallet holds 3,628,341 SOL or 0.71% of the supply.
• 9QgXqrgdbVU8KcpfskqJpAXKzbaYQJecgMAruSWoXDkM. The wallet holds 3,141,238 SOL or 0.61% of the supply.

SOL is rather decentralized, with only one wallet holding more than 1% of the total supply.

Solana Supply and Distribution

From the Solana Whitepaper

Solana’s technical documentation, or whitepaper , says that the system is designed to be quicker and easier to use than other blockchains.

One word of warning, though. The whitepaper is full of jargon, with sentences like “When used alongside a consensus algorithm such as Proof of Work (PoW) or Proof of Stake (PoS), PoH can reduce messaging overhead in a Byzantine Fault Tolerant replicated state machine, resulting in sub-second finality times” likely to confuse the average reader.

Solana Explained

Blockchains can be slow. While this is especially true for Proof-of-Work (PoW) chains like Bitcoin, which use people solving mathematical equations to add blocks to the blockchain,  it can also be true for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) chains such as Ethereum, too.

The Solana blockchain aims to solve this problem. It uses Proof-of-History (PoH) to grow its chain and reward its users. It promises 2,000 transactions per second. 

Solana is part of the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi is based on the idea that people can access financial services without having to bother going through traditional banks. It supports various decentralized applications (DApps), such as the Audius music-sharing program and the Phantom Wallet. 

The SOL coin powers the system and rewards the people who help run the network. The coin can also be staked in return for voting rights and bought, sold, and traded on exchanges. 

How Solana Works

Solana’s unique selling point is its Proof-of-History consensus mechanism. This mechanism works by creating a series of timestamps that show who held how much crypto at what particular point. In turn, this enables the data to be accurate and fair. 

PoH has allowed Solana to have a range of other functions. These include

• The SeaLevel transaction processor.
• The Turbine data distribution system.
• Gulf Stream is used to move transaction caching across the network.
• The Tower Byzantine Fault Tolerance system allows it to calculate values.
• Pipeline, which also helps with transaction processing.
• Archives, which help with data storage.

SOL powers the system. Holders can stake it or set it aside in return for voting rights. People can also buy, sell, and trade it on exchanges.

Is Solana a Good Investment?

Solana is one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. Its recent rise mirrors its strong performance in the second half of 2021 when it went from an also-ran to a major player.

The ecosystem keeps growing, also thanks to the integration of new players like PYUSD, and this may be a positive catalyst for the SOL price. Memecoins, liquid staking, and decentralized exchanges in Solana have enjoyed a resurgence, while the blockchain leads activity metrics such as transactions and active addresses.

On the other hand, SOL has fallen since peaking in November 2024, and we don’t know whether or not if or when it can reach a new all-time high.

As ever, you will need to be careful, do your own research, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Will Solana Go Up or Down?

The short-term SOL price prediction is bullish since the wave count implies the wave four correction has nearly ended. After more consolidation, an eventual breakout that completes wave five by the end of the year is predicted by various methods. Conversely, breaking down from the triangle will indicate the trend is still bearish.

Should I Invest in Solana?

Before you decide whether or not to invest in Solana, you will need to do your research, not only on SOL but also on similar cryptos such as Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA).

Ultimately, though, you will have to make this decision for yourself. Remember that prices can go down and up and that you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose. 

Technical analysis by Valdrin Tahiri.

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Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about this information’s completeness, reliability and accuracy. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.