Cardano Price Prediction 2024: ADA Price Analysis

Key Takeaways

• The price of Cardano has broken out from a descending resistance trend line existing since the yearly high.
• Cardano has been the worst-performing blockchain in the past year, increasing by less than 40%.
• Our Cardano price predictions suggest ADA can reach a new all-time high in 2025.

Cardano faced a setback when the SEC labeled ADA as an unregistered security in June last year, causing a price drop. Still, it has shown signs of recovery with a rising TVL and a flourishing stablecoin sector.

Despite skepticism about ADA’s performance, founder Charles Hoskinson highlighted Cardano’s industry-leading research and technical achievements.

On Sept. 13 2024, ADA was worth about $0.356.

Let’s examine our price predictions for Cardano, made on Sept. 13 2024. We will also investigate the ADA price history and discuss what ADA is and does.

Cardano Price Prediction

CCN uses two methods to create Cardano price predictions. Fractal analysis involves identifying and mirroring historical patterns and indicator readings and is one approach used to forecast future price movements. Wave count analysis, which identifies potential price waves and trends, is another method to develop predictions.

The average of these two predictions provides an overall Cardano price forecast. The higher prediction serves as the maximum price target, while the lower prediction forms the basis of the minimum price target.

Fractal Method

In June 2018, the ADA price fell under a descending resistance trend line, leading to a new all-time low in March 2020. However, the price bounced immediately afterward, confirming a double bottom pattern and breaking out from a descending resistance trend line after 749 days. The breakout was combined with an RSI increase above 50. Then, ADA started a rise toward the all-time high price of $3.16 in August 2021.

Then, the same pattern transpired once more. After creating a descending resistance trend line, ADA reached a double bottom in January and June 2023. Then, it started an upward movement that caused a breakout from the resistance trend line after 784 days. This was combined with an RSI increase above 50 (green circle).

In the previous increase, the ADA price reached a high at the 2.1 external Fibonacci retracement of the long-term decline. If the same happens this year, ADA will reach a new all-time high of $6.34 in June 2025.

We can use the shape of the increase and ensuing correction to find the prices at the end of 2024 and 2025. Doing so gives targets of $2.74 and $3.20, respectively.

Wave Count Method

The most likely wave count suggests that ADA started a five-wave increase (white) in June 2023. If so, it has just completed wave two in this structure. Using the length of these movements, we can forecast that the ensuing high will be reached in Sept. 2025.

With the extension of wave one, the top for wave three is forecasted at $2.34, while that for the entire movement at $4.94. Then, we forecast another lengthy correction.

Considering these predicted upward and downward movements, we arrive at an ADA price prediction of $1 and $4.20 for the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Before the all-time high, the wave count method gives targets of $1.06 and $5.12 for the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively. Finally, we use the rate of increase for the past five years to make a Cardano price prediction for the end of 2030.

The ADA price has increased by 571% since July 2024, leading to a daily rate of increase of 0.31%. Projecting this rate of increase until the end of 2030 leads to a price of $3.33. Adding and removing 20% to this target leads to our minimum and maximum Cardano price predictions.

Cardano Price Prediction for 2024

The fractal and wave count methods give different Cardano price predictions for the end of 2024. While both imply the ADA price will be on its way toward the all-time high, the fractal method suggests it will be closer to the high. The fractal prediction gives a target of $2.74, while the wave count predicts a target of $1.

Cardano Price Prediction for 2025

In terms of magnitude, the fractal and wave count methods give a close Cardano price prediction for the end of 2025 compared to the end of 2024. The fractal provides a target of $3.20, while the wave count predicts $3.80.

Cardano Price Prediction for 2030

The ADA price prediction for the end of 2030 uses the current rate of increase. If a similar rate of increase continues for the foreseeable future, a price between $2.70 and $3.96 is likely.

ADA Price Analysis

The daily time frame ADA chart gives a positive outlook. It shows a completed five-wave increase and W-X-Y correction. This suggests the first portion of the upward movement and its ensuing correction are over. 

Additionally, there is a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, in which ADA is completing the right shoulder. 

A breakout from the pattern will likely trigger an increase to $0.61. The target is found by projecting the pattern’s length to the breakout level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.

Short-Term ADA Price Prediction

The ADA price prediction for the next 24 hours hinges on a breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. If that happens, the price can gradually increase toward the $0.61 resistance area, possibly reaching it before the end of the month.

Cardano RSI Chart: Is ADA Overbought or Oversold?

The RSI is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether the trend is overbought or oversold. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish. The Cardano RSI is currently at 55, indicating a somewhat bullish trend.

Cardano Average True Range (ATR): ADA Volatility

The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days.

A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility. Since ATR values can be higher for higher-priced assets, normalize ATR by dividing it by the asset price to compare volatility across different price levels.

On Aug. 22, Cardano’s weekly ATR was 0.017, implying low volatility.

Best Days and Months to Buy ADA

We looked at the ADA price history and found the times when the price was at its lowest across certain days, months, quarters, and even weeks in the year, indicating the best times to buy ADA.

ADA Performance Comparison

Cardano is a blockchain for smart contracts. Let’s compare it with other projects in the same category with similar market capitalizations.

The data reveals that Cardano has been the worst-performing blockchain in the past year.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Cardano

CCN’s Senior Research Analyst took a good look at Cardano and discovered the following advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages of Cardano

• High Nakamoto Coefficient: Cardano demonstrates strong decentralization with a coefficient exceeding 200 when evaluating decentralization using the Nakamoto Coefficient. It is a well-distributed blockchain network, as the largest pool controls only about 0.17%  of the total supply.
• Research-Driven Development : Cardano collaborates with top academics for peer-reviewed research, uses formal methods (mathematical techniques to ensure software correctness), and employs interdisciplinary teams (experts from various fields) to create a secure and reliable blockchain.
• Reliable and Secure Code: Haskell’s strong typing system catches errors early, making the code reliable and reducing bugs. The language structure allows for formal verification so developers can mathematically prove the code works correctly, enhancing security. Additionally, Haskell’s code tends to be clean and easy to maintain because of its concise and clear syntax. Haskell also supports concurrent programming, which helps it handle many tasks simultaneously and is useful for building scalable and efficient applications.
• Energy Efficiency : Cardano is 24 times more efficient than Bitcoin and consumes only about 2.596 GWh across its 3,110 pools.
• Parallel Processing and State Efficiency with UTXO Model: Cardano uses the UTXO model to store user balances, allowing for efficient parallel transaction processing. In this model, transactions can be processed independently if they involve different coins, enhancing scalability. Additionally, the UTXO model helps prevent state bloat by requiring more ADA to store larger amounts of data and set a limit on the maximum state size. Cardano’s blockchain is more efficient than account-based models, where parallelizing transactions are more complex, and state bloat is a significant issue.
• Low Inflation Rate: Cardano boasts a low inflation rate, officially set at 3% per year. However, historical data from CoinMarketCap  indicates an actual inflation rate of around 2.31% over the past year.

Disadvantages of Cardano

• Slower Development Speed: While beneficial for security and reliability, the thorough and meticulous development process takes considerable time. This results in a slower development pace compared to competitors.
• Challenges in adopting Haskell: Learning Haskell can be tough for developers who are used to more common programming styles, as it uses a functional programming approach. In some situations, Haskell might not be as fast as languages like C++ for specific tasks. Lastly, the Haskell community and its library and tool ecosystem are smaller than more popular languages, so finding resources and support can be more difficult.
• Token Distribution and Centralization: Around 80% of ADA is in circulation, with broad ownership among individual investors. However, around 30%  of this circulating supply lies with the top 300 addresses, which raises concerns about centralization and influence by a small number of entities.

• Low Adoption: Cardano historically averages around 30,000 daily active addresses, which indicates very low adoption compared to its competitors.

• Intense Competition: Cardano competes in the Proof of Stake industry with major players like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche. The fierce competition challenges Cardano’s ability to attract developers, users, and investments, potentially limiting its growth and market share.
• Scalability Issues: Cardano faces scalability challenges, which can hinder its ability to handle a high volume of transactions efficiently. Despite its innovative design and use of the Ouroboros PoS protocol, the network still struggles with throughput and latency compared to some of its competitors.
• Lack of Slashing Penalties: In Cardano’s Proof of Stake protocol, the absence of slashing penalties means that validators face no punishment for adding blocks to conflicting forks. While this approach enhances user experience by reducing risks for stakers, it compromises security. Without slashing, the protocol becomes more susceptible to bribe attacks and collusion between validators.

ADA Price History

Let’s examine Cardano’s price history more closely. While past performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future results, understanding what Cardano has done can help us contextualize future predictions.

Cardano Market Cap

The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of ADA in circulation multiplied by their price. On Sept. 13 2024, ADA’s market cap was about $12.8 billion, making it the 11th-largest crypto by that metric.

Who Owns the Most Cardano (ADA)?

On Sept. 13 2024, one wallet held more than 4% of the Cardano supply.

Richest ADA Wallet Addresses

As of Sept. 13 2024, the five richest Cardano wallet addresses  were

• addr1q8elqhkuvtyelgcedpup58r893awhg3l87a4rz5d5acatuj9y84nruafrmta2rewd5l46g8zxy4l49ly8kye79ddr3ksqal. This wallet held 1,871,132,226 ADA or 4.16% of the supply.
• addr1q9cp6hfrsvqc0jn9eeskdtk3l7usqaa35lm925f7usqtzhnsr4wj8qcpsl9xtnnpv6hdrlaeqpmmrflk24gnaeqqk90qjgx. This wallet held 873,388,640 ADA or 1.94% of the supply.
• addr1q8hsff3uwtphx7dtya7unjwjwug52e5jvqp09je6pwqx8k4jvuxrw2x5rr7e258a33yzkrhhlrrc5ezvd2z7qtdq0gasme4. This wallet held 452,300,055 ADA or 1.01% of the supply.
• addr1q88ysqegp378eag7fauv5zyjvvuy8mca3dc0925hv0nzl8qp0jwyns8qwzf5dqtdlwkv7qt5upzcyfmd5yl43s89txvse89. This wallet held 288,924,568 ADA or 0.64% of the supply.
• addr1qyygqeeund4he53cqhysdltuc0j6xgxlfu3hj98z4704jsakjp4htgx7ydh0h4ulzfdq6krx7vzm27av7z56fg3rv55qg5j. This wallet held 271,779,208 ADA or 0.6% of the supply.

Cardano Supply and Distribution

From the Cardano Whitepaper

Cardano says in its technical documentation or whitepaper that scientific research is at the heart of everything it does. 

It says: “Cardano is a decentralized third-generation proof-of-stake blockchain platform and home to the ADA cryptocurrency. It is the first blockchain platform to evolve from a scientific philosophy and a research-first-driven approach.

“The Cardano platform has been designed from the ground up and verified by an industry-leading combination of top engineers and academic experts in blockchain and cryptography. It has a strong focus on sustainability, scalability, and transparency. It is a fully open-source project that aims to deliver an inclusive, fair, and resilient infrastructure for financial and social applications on a global scale. One of its primary goals is to bring reliable, secure financial services to those people who do not currently have access.”

Cardano (ADA) Explained

In the world of cryptocurrency, pretty much everything is powered by the blockchain. This decentralized ledger is so key to crypto that people outside the crypto-sphere use the two terms interchangeably.

Blockchains can be split into two. Some use the Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism.

This is where people add blocks to the chain and earn crypto by solving increasingly complex mathematical equations. Others use Proof-of-Stake (PoS).

This sees people choosing to add blocks based on how much of the crypto they already hold.

PoS is a newer method of working that is seen as more environmentally friendly. One of the most notable PoS blockchains is Cardano.

How Cardano Works

Cardano has several features that help it stand out. Firstly, it bases its developments on computer research, publishing its reports in peer-reviewed papers. It also features smart contracts and computer programs that automatically execute when certain conditions are met. These were introduced in September 2021.

It is powered by its native token, ADA, named after 19th-century computing pioneer Ada Lovelace. Cardano rewards people with ADA for adding blocks to the blockchain.

ADA holders can either vote on proposals regarding the network or delegate their voting rights in return for more rewards. 

Cardano uses a consensus mechanism called Ouroboros. The system itself has two layers. The first, known as the Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL), is responsible for recording transactions and facilitating the transfer of the ADA coin.

The second, called Cardano Computational Layer (CCL), uses smart contract technology that developers can use to transfer funds.

Additionally, the network accommodates three types of users. The first type is more nodes, which play a role in governing the Cardano blockchain. The second type is relay nodes, which help transfer data between the mCore nodes and the internet. Meanwhile, the third type is edge nodes, responsible for creating cryptocurrency transactions.

Is Cardano a Good Investment?

Despite being one of the biggest cryptocurrencies, the ADA price has not performed as well as other blockchains. More specifically, both Solana and Ethereum have outpaced it significantly. Nevertheless, our wave count and fractal Cardano price predictions suggest a new all-time high will be reached in the next two years or so.

Will Cardano Go Up or Down?

The short-term Cardano price prediction is bullish, which stands true for the next 24 hours, weeks, and months. The reason for this is the breakout from a descending resistance trend line catalyzed by numerous bullish divergences. However, while price forecasts are broadly optimistic, price predictions are often wrong. As always, it is important to remember that prices can and do go down and up. 

Should I Invest in Cardano?

Before investing in Cardano, you must research ADA and other similar coins and tokens, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Ultimately, though, this is a question you will have to answer for yourself. Before doing so, remember that you must never invest more money than you can afford to lose. 

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About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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