What's next for Ethereum?
Key Takeaways
- Ethereum (ETH) is the second-biggest cryptocurrency in the world, with a market cap of more than $3 billion.
- In 2024, the price of ETH traded above $4,000 for the first time since Dec. 2021 but did not reach a new all-time high.
- ETH dropped significantly in August and has been below $3,000 for nearly two months.
- Our Ethereum price prediction suggests that the price of ETH will reach a new all-time high by 2030.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a rule change on May 23, 2024 that will allow Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) to buy and hold Ethereum, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies.
This decision came less than six months after the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs. Those funds have been a significant success for the industry, with net inflows already in the billions of dollars.
The Ethereum ETFs went live on July 23, when the price of Ethereum stood at $3,450. The ETH ETF did over $1 billion in volume , led by ETHE, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. There are a total of nine Ethereum ETF issuers.
Grayscale also launched a “mini fund,” which carries a 0% fee for the first six months, after which it will increase to 0.15%. This will still be the lowest of any issuer, most of which have a 0.25% fee. In contrast, ETHE has a 2.5% fee.
However, Ethereum’s price has dropped since the funds’ launch, and on Sept. 24, 2024, ETH was worth about $2,645.
Let’s now examine our price predictions for ETH, made on Sept. 24, 2024. We will also examine the history of ETH prices and explain what ETH is and what it does.
Ethereum Price Prediction
Here are the Ethereum price predictions from CCN on Sept. 24, 2024. It is important to remember that price forecasts, especially for something as potentially volatile as crypto, are often wrong.
We will use the wave count to develop our ETH price predictions. Then, 20% is added and removed from the final target to arrive at our minimum and maximum ETH price predictions.
| Minimum Ethereum Price Prediction | Average Ethereum Price Prediction | Maximum Ethereum Price Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $2,700 | $3,025 | $3,350 |
| 2025 | $3,000 | $3,350 | $3,700 |
| 2030 | $21,600 | $27,000 | $32,400 |
The most likely wave count suggests that ETH started a five-wave increase in May 2022.
Since all movement portions are three-wave structures, the entire increase may be part of an expanding leading diagonal.
If wave five has the same length as wave three, ETH will reach a high of $4,715.
If, instead, it extends and has the same length as waves one and three combined (black), the price will reach a high of $5,343.
So, we will use the average of the two to create our $5,030 high for the current market cycle.
The duration of the previous waves indicates this high will be reached in June 2025.
We then project a similar decline as the one after the Dec. 2021 high.
During these projected upward and downward movements, the wave count method leads to ETH price predictions of $3,025 and $3,350 for the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
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Finally, we use the daily rate of increase to make an Ethereum price prediction for the end of 2030. In the past six years, the Ethereum price has increased by 720% for a daily rate of increase of 0.32%. Projecting this increase until the end of 2030 gives an Ethereum price prediction of $27,000.
Adding and removing 20% from this target gives our minimum and maximum Ethereum price predictions.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2024
The wave count method predicts an Ethereum price range of between $2,700 and $3,350 by the end of 2024.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2025
The wave count method leads to an Ethereum price prediction range of between $3,000 and $3,700 for the end of 2025.
Ethereum Price Prediction 2030
Using the daily rate of increase for the past six years, we arrive at an average Ethereum price prediction of $27,000 for the end of 2030.
Ethereum Price Analysis
The daily time frame ETH price chart shows a double bottom pattern between Aug. 5 and Sept. 6.
The double bottom is a bullish pattern that usually leads to upward movements. Moreover, it was combined with a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength index (RSI) and MACD (green), enhancing its legitimacy.
After the divergences, the RSI moved above 50 while the MACD moved above 0.
Currently, ETH is attempting to break out from the middle of its long-term descending parallel channel. If that happens, it can reach the resistance trend line at $3,100.
Short-Term ETH Price Prediction
The Ethereum price prediction for the next 24 hours hinges on a breakout from the channel’s midline and an increase toward the resistance.
If this happens, ETH will gradually increase toward the resistance trend line, leading to a positive September.
Ethereum Average True Range (ATR): ETH Volatility
The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days. A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility.
On Sept. 24, 2024, the weekly ATR for ETH was 28.73, a sign of low volatility.
ETH Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is ETH Oversold or Undersold?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Movements above 70 and below 30 show over and undervaluation, respectively. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish.
On Sept. 24, 2024, Ethereum’s weekly RSI was at 57, suggesting a bullish trend.
ETH Market Cap to TVL Ratio
The Market Cap to Total Value Locked (TVL) ratio measures the valuation of a decentralized finance (DeFi) project by comparing its market capitalization to the total value of assets locked in its smart contracts. This ratio shows the project’s utilization and links the platform’s health to the value of locked assets.
A ratio above 1.0 indicates overvaluation because the market cap exceeds the value of assets used in the platform. A ratio below 1.0 indicates undervaluation because the market cap is lower than the value of locked assets.
On Sept. 24, 2024, the Ethereum TVL ratio was 6.5. indicating overvaluation.
Best Days and Months to Buy Ethereum
We took a look at the ETH price history and found the times when the price was at its lowest across certain days, months, quarters, and even weeks in the year, indicating the best times to buy Ethereum.
| Time to Buy ETH | Days, Weeks, Months and Quarters |
|---|---|
| Best Day | Wednesday |
| Best Week | 33 |
| Best Month | January |
| Best Quarter | First |
ETH Price Performance Comparison
Ethereum is a blockchain that deals with smart contracts, so let’s compare its performance with other similar projects.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Ethereum
CCN’s Senior Research Analyst, Toghrul Aliyev, studied Ethereum in depth and found its advantages and disadvantages.
Advantages of Ethereum
Development
- Ethereum ranks number one across multiple key development metrics: 112,535 repositories, 1,540 sub-ecosystems, 43,475 weekly commits, and 2,913 weekly active developers. These numbers demonstrate Ethereum’s extensive range of applications and projects. The active development results in fewer bugs, faster issue resolution, and the ability to swiftly meet user demands and stay ahead of competitors.
Centralization and Decentralization
- The 2016 The DAO hack led to the theft of 3.6 million ETH. In response, Ethereum implemented a hard fork to restore the stolen funds. Critics argue this decision contradicted Ethereum’s decentralized ethos. However, the hard fork demonstrated true decentralization because it occurred only after achieving majority consensus through extensive community discussions and voting. With 14% of the total supply at risk and the ecosystem’s future in jeopardy, the move was not a bailout. In contrast, no hard fork was implemented when the Parity multi-signature wallet was exploited in 2017. Other critics compare The DAO hack to the Mt. Gox collapse, but this comparison misses key differences. When MtGox’s losses were revealed, the funds had already been widely dispersed, making a simple revert impossible. In the case of The DAO, the funds were locked for several weeks after the transfer, allowing for a different response.
Market Position
- The approval of ETH ETFs makes Ethereum accessible to institutional investors like pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies. As a result, Ethereum is now part of traditional finance, which enhances its liquidity and price stability.
- Ethereum ranks 1st in DEX trading volume, holding a 33.4% market share in the first quarter of 2024, with $144.2 billion in trades.
- Ethereum leads in real-world asset tokenization. It has an almost 72% market share in tokenized US Treasuries. Ethereum also holds more than 98% of commodities and more than 53% of stablecoin supply on its network.
| US Treasuries | Stablecoins | Commodities | |
| Ethereum | $1384.49M | $88604.92M | $864.89M |
| Stellar | $433.27M | $226.43M | $9.83M |
| Solana | $47.96M | $3199.73M | – |
| Mantle | $39.72M | – | – |
| Polygon | $10.32M | $361.26M | – |
| Arbitrum | $5.22M | $1309.82M | – |
| Gnosis | $2.23M | – | – |
| TRON | – | $61680.08M | – |
| BNB Smart Chain | – | $4994.37M | – |
| Base | – | $2,972.77 | – |
| Avalanche | – | $2185.47M | – |
| NEAR | – | $714.01M | – |
- Positive: Ethereum dominates the DeFi sector by total value locked, holding more than 56% of the total market share.
Supply and Scalability
- Positive: Users can stake Ethereum to earn rewards by participating in the network’s validation process.
- Positive: Ethereum’s burning mechanism, introduced through the EIP-1559 upgrade, reduces the total supply of ETH over time. Each transaction on the Ethereum network includes a base fee, which gets burned, permanently removing that ETH from circulation. If the rate of ETH being burned is greater than the rate at which new ETH is created, the total supply of ETH decreases, leading to increased scarcity and potentially higher value per token.
Disadvantages of Ethereum
Development
- When problems arise in the Ethereum network, solutions often involve outsourcing tasks to external organizations. This practice can compromise the protocol’s integrity because it relies on outside parties rather than the community or core developers. It creates a situation where external companies have significant influence over the network, which can lead to conflicts of interest and reduce the system’s trustworthiness.
- Layer 2 solutions offer faster and cheaper transactions, causing both users and developers to focus on them rather than the main Ethereum network. As a result, developers prioritize creating and enhancing Layer 2 or Layer 3 solutions, shifting their innovation and development efforts away from Ethereum itself.
- Ethereum developers focus on long-term solutions that take years to implement, mainly concentrating on Layer 2s and Layer 3s. Meanwhile, competitors are addressing Ethereum’s issues more quickly, thus attracting more users, developers, and investment. The dynamic leads to a loss of market share for Ethereum as other platforms offer immediate improvements and capture more of the market.
Centralization and Decentralization
- Liquid staking lets users stake Ether and receive tokens representing their staked assets, which can be traded or used in other DeFi applications. However, it poses a risk to the protocol’s health. If too much Ether concentrates in liquid staking services, a few entities could gain significant control over the network. This is already a reality because Lido and Coinbase control over 40% of the market share in Ethereum’s staking. For proof-of-stake platforms, control by more than 33% of the stake is problematic because it increases the risk of collusion and potential network compromise.
- As the hardware requirements for running a node on the Ethereum network increase, only entities with large data centers can afford to keep up. Smaller, individual node operators may find it too expensive to continue participating. This trend leads to a more centralized network, where a few large players dominate, reducing the network’s resilience and decentralization. As of July 2024, five ISPs—Amazon, Hetzner Online, OVH SAS, Comcast Cable, and Spectrum—are responsible for 1/3 of the network’s nodes out of 893 providers. The situation has improved since August 2022, when three ISPs hosted 2/3 of the nodes . However, this improvement still does not fully resolve the centralization issue.
- MEV refers to the profit miners can make by reordering, including, or excluding transactions within the blocks they produce. Instead of finding ways to solve this problem, Ethereum has started to accommodate it by supporting proprietary MEV builders. The focus on MEV builders gives them precedence over local, smaller block producers, which can lead to a more centralized and unfair system.
- Staking requires a minimum of 32 ETH, equivalent to $112,000 at an Ethereum price of $3,500, making it inaccessible for the average retail investor. The barrier reduces the level of decentralization, as fewer individuals can participate in securing the network.
- Ethereum’s decision-making relies heavily on a small group of developers, which centralizes control and slows down the decision-making process. The absence of on-chain governance means fewer community voices influence major updates, leading to less flexible responses to challenges. A centralized structure hampers Ethereum’s ability to adapt quickly and increases the risk of users and developers moving to more responsive platforms.
Market Position
- Negative: Year-to-date inflows and outflows of Ethereum have resulted in a net outflow of $0.85 billion. More money leaving the chain than coming in indicates that investors and users might prefer other chains over Ethereum, which could lead to decreased network activity and hinder its growth and development.
Supply and Scalability
- Ethereum’s low throughput of 13 Transactions Per Second (TPS) causes network congestion when transaction volume spikes. As a result, users face high fees, sometimes even exceeding $100 per transaction .
- Ethereum relies on Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism to handle more transactions. These help reduce congestion and fees but make Ethereum less viable as a standalone option. The significant market share of these Layer 2 platforms indicates a preference for alternatives. Although these solutions operate within the Ethereum ecosystem, relying on external chains instead of in-house solutions is not ideal.
- Ethereum’s inability to scale results in a poor user experience due to congestion and inefficiency. Additionally, fragmentation across Layer-2 solutions complicates dApp interoperability. It also complicates integrating new projects with existing ones, while reduced composability hampers innovation and growth within the ecosystem.
- Ethereum’s focus on being a secure data availability layer for Layer 2 solutions highlights its scalability limitations. The mainnet remains less scalable, affecting the efficiency of the DA Layer. Meanwhile, scalable blockchains can process more transactions, capture higher revenue, and enhance security. This puts Ethereum at a competitive disadvantage as it struggles to match the performance and efficiency of more scalable blockchains.
- Successful Layer 2 solutions may abandon Ethereum for more scalable Layer 1 blockchains. If Ethereum doesn’t provide sufficient revenue for these protocols to thrive, they will likely migrate to other platforms that offer better scalability and profitability, further weakening Ethereum’s ecosystem.
- Due to scalability issues, congestion, and high fees, Ethereum’s DEX trading volume market share has been chipped away by other chains, mainly its own Layer 2 solution, Arbitrum, and Ethereum’s biggest competition, Solana. In October 2023, Ethereum’s DEX trading volume market share was 56.49%, but by March 2024, it had dropped to 33.4%.
- Recently, interest in Ethereum has dropped, leading to a situation where inflation exceeds the amount of ETH being burned. Since April 2024, the net increase in ETH supply has been about 60,000 ETH per month. If this trend continues, by Dec. 2024, the total supply of ETH could return to the levels seen at the time of the Merger.
Ethereum Price History
Let’s now take a look at some of the key dates in the ETH price history . While past performance should never be taken as an indicator of future results, knowing what the token has done can help give us some very useful context when it comes to either making or interpreting an Ethereum price prediction.
| Period | Ethereum Price |
|---|---|
| Last Week (Sept. 17 2024) | $2,392.15 |
| Last Month (Aug. 24 2024) | $2,820.02 |
| Three months ago (June 24, 2024) | $3,430.70 |
| One year ago (Sept. 24, 2023) | $1,600.21 |
| Five years ago (Sept. 24, 2019) | $203.50 |
| Launch price (August 7, 2015) | $2.83 |
| All-time high (November 16, 2021) | $4,891.70 |
| All-time low (October 21, 2015) | $0.4209 |
Ethereum Market Cap
The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of ETH in circulation multiplied by its price. On Sept. 24, 2024, Ethereum’s market cap was $318.4 billion, making it the second largest crypto by that metric.
Who Owns the Most Ethereum (ETH)?
On Sept. 24, 2024, one wallet held more than 40% of ETH’s supply.
Richest ETH Wallet Addresses
As of Sept. 5, 2024, the five richest ETH wallets were
- 0x00000000219ab540356cbb839cbe05303d7705fa. This wallet held 50,275,612 ETH or 42.1% of the supply.
- 0xc02aaa39b223fe8d0a0e5c4f27ead9083c756cc2. This wallet held 2,898,371 ETH or 2.4% of the supply.
- 0xbe0eb53f46cd790cd13851d5eff43d12404d33e8. This wallet, listed as Binance, held 1,996,008 ETH, or 1.65% of the supply.
- 0x8315177ab297ba92a06054ce80a67ed4dbd7ed3a. This wallet held 1,384,769 ETH, or 1.15% of the supply.
- 0x40b38765696e3d5d8d9d834d8aad4bb6e418e489. This wallet held 1,363,195 ETH, or 1.13% of the supply.
Ethereum Supply and Demand Fact Box
| Supply and Distribution | Figures |
|---|---|
| Total Supply | 120,351,107 |
| Circulating Supply as of Sept. 24, 2024 | 120,351,107 (100% of total current supply) |
| Holder Distribution | Top 10 holders owned 51.01% of supply as of Sept. 24 2024 |
From the Ethereum Whitepaper
In its technical documentation or whitepaper , Ethereum says it is designed to take blockchain to a new level.
It says that it wants to use blockchain technology to do more than just support cryptocurrency.
It explains: “What Ethereum intends to provide is a blockchain with a built-in fully fledged Turing-complete programming language that can be used to create ‘contracts.'”
A team of developers, led by the Russian-born and Canadian-based computer wizzkid Vitalik Buterin, founded Ethereum in 2013.
Ethereum (ETH) Explained
Before Ethereum, blockchains had supported cryptocurrencies, but there was the idea that they could be used for things other than money. In 2015, it came out and allowed people to create their decentralized applications (DApps).
Ethereum, which has gone through a variety of hard forks. These are when a new form of the blockchain is created, making all valid transactions invalid and vice versa. However, it still has its native coin. This coin is, technically speaking, called Ether, but most people call it Ethereum. Anyway, this crypto, known by its ticker handle ETH, pays for transactions on the blockchain. People can buy, sell, and trade it on exchanges. Holders can also stake their ETH.
How Ethereum Works
For a long time, the Ethereum blockchain used a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which meant that people solved increasingly complex equations to add blocks to the blockchain, earning rewards for doing so. However, there were two major problems with that. Firstly, it had a negative impact on the environment. The blockchain was responsible for upwards of 90 terawatt hours (TWh) of energy per year, according to data from the Ethereum Energy Consumption Index . To put that into context , Ethereum used more energy than the entire nation of Kazakhstan.
Secondly, the Ethereum blockchain could get very slow and very crowded. This meant that transactions took longer, which cost people more money, and it also meant that there was a surge of layer 2 scaling solutions. These were platforms linked to the Ethereum blockchain with the aim of taking transactions off the blockchain, carrying them out, and then putting them back on, thus, theoretically, saving time and money.
In 2020, it was decided that Ethereum would move to a new consensus mechanism. A form of Proof-of-Stake (PoS), it now meant that people who held ETH could add blocks to the blockchain based on how much ETH they held. The final move to PoS, dubbed The Merge , was completed on Sept. 15, 2022. This was expected to contribute to a bullish Ethereum price prediction, but the price has still lagged behind Bitcoin since the merge.
Is Ethereum a Good Investment?
It is hard to say. It has recovered well from the news that the SEC was suing Binance and Coinbase. Not only that, but it is moving forward with new upgrades. However, while the Ethereum ETF launch went without a hitch, ETH is back under $3,000 and has been for some time. .
Not only that, but the Merge, which was to take Ethereum to a whole new level, was something of a damp squib, at least in terms of the ETH price. Also, cryptos have a reputation for being very volatile so ETH could drop at any time.
On the other hand, the news that there was more ETH staked than ever before suggests that, in technical terms, The Merge has been well-received. Meanwhile, it is doing better than it has done in a long time.
You must do your own research on Ethereum and not just focus on price predictions before you make a decision.
Will Ethereum go up or down?
No one can really say for sure. While a lot of forecasts are upbeat, price predictions are very often wrong. Remember, too, that prices can, and do, go down as well as up.
Should I invest in Ethereum?
This is a question you will have to answer yourself. Before you do so, you will have to do your own research, not only on ETH but on other cryptos, such as Bitcoin. It is also vital that you never invest more money than you can afford to lose.
Technical analysis by Valdrin Tahiri.
FAQs
Will Ethereum reach $10,000?
Our price predictions suggest Ethereum will reach $27,000 in 2030.
What is Ethereum used for?
ETH supports the Ethereum blockchain. People can also buy, sell, and trade it on exchanges.
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Disclaimer
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
