Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024: BTC Price Analysis

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin is $95,290 and likely to trend within $84,400 – $104,200 for the next seven days.
• The current week’s RSI values: Daily 64; Weekly 77; Monthly 75
• The market is in Belief Denial, indicating increased confidence.
• Bitcoin is looking strong for a retest of $100,000 in the next week.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Consolidation Phase After $99,800 High – Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s is currently at a price level of $95,290. After reaching an all-time high of $99,800 on November 22. Bitcoin is now in a consolidation phase and potentially cooling off after a strong rally since November 05, as observed on multiple timeframes. In an effort to understand where the price will go next, key support and resistance levels on the 1-hour timeframes have been identified.

The chart above illustrates how Bitcoin’s recent price action began with a bullish breakout from an ascending triangle, which led to an anticipated high of 8% from the breakout level. However, after the breakout, the price struggled to maintain upward momentum, repeatedly failing at a sloping resistance line while finding solid footing at a horizontal support level at the breakout level of the triangle. With Bitcoin now stuck between resistance and support. The next decisive move will determine whether Bitcoin resumes its bullish trend or faces potential downside pressure.

Key Scenarios:

• Bullish: A breakout above the sloping resistance could trigger a rally toward $100,000+.
• Bearish: Losing the horizontal support may flip it to resistance, leading to a decline.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch for Bullish or Bearish Scenarios

The below chart showcases Bitcoin’s price action over the past week. Initially, Bitcoin maintained an upward trajectory with strong support (yellow trendline), marking higher lows as the price climbed. However, after hitting its all-time-high of $99,000 Bitcoin reduced in price and cracked the support. Bitcoin has since struggled to reclaim higher levels, now facing resistance at previous support and forming a lower high. 

Key Scenarios:

• Bullish: If Bitcoin reclaims the broken support (now resistance) and breaks above the next resistance zone, a sharp rally toward the higher resistance level could occur, possibly continuing the bullish trend to $104,000 plus.
• Bearish: Failure to reclaim the resistance as support would result in a retest of $91,100 support and, if that fails, a further drop to $82,000, a critical support zone becomes likely.

Monthly Chart: Long-Term Trend

The monthly chart illustrated below is utilizing Heikin Ashi candles, which offer a clear perspective on the long-term trend of the Bitcoin price by filtering out short-term noise. If we zoom out we can see how:

• Bullish Structure: The Heikin Ashi candles highlight a series of higher highs and higher lows, underscoring Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trend. Despite the recent pullback, the monthly chart remains firmly positive, with no signs of significant reversal.
• Breakout Confirmation: The yellow descending trendline, which previously acted as resistance, has been decisively broken. This breakout is a strong signal that the macro uptrend remains intact and higher prices will be expected in 2025.
• Cooling-Off Phase: While Bitcoin is experiencing a cooling-off phase on lower timeframes, the monthly chart shows solid momentum, with no significant threats to the overall trend. Long-term investors should remain confident, as the current price action is a healthy consolidation within the broader uptrend.

Downside Risk: Being Prudent and Preparing for a Panic Wick

Although the probability of a significant downturn is low, the possibility of a panic wick down to the 20-period moving average is always a possibility and is actually quite a likely outcome. Currently the 20-period moving average is climbing but finds itself at around $74,000. Meaning a sudden and sharp decline in price, for whatever reason, will almost definitely find support at the 20-period moving average. 

Placing buy orders at these key intervals can ensure investors are prepared to capitalize on extreme dips. This strategy aligns with the broader bullish outlook while taking advantage of short-term volatility.

The Bigger Picture: Monthly Strength Provides Reassurance

Zooming to the monthly chart offers a much clearer perspective on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. By filtering out the noise of shorter timeframes, the monthly chart reveals an uptrend that remains intact despite recent consolidation and likely to keep on running until 2025.

For long-term investors, the monthly chart guarantees that the overall market structure remains bullish. This perspective highlights the importance of patience, as temporary dips and consolidations are a normal part of any sustained rally. 

So basically, Bitcoin seems to be in a correction and not the end of the bull market. When you zoom out and look at the bigger picture, Bitcoin’s historical cycles show it takes roughly 1,400 days on average to move from one peak to the next. 

This suggests that we’re still in the middle of the current bull cycle, with the next major peak likely to occur around quarter four in 2025. The recent price action is more of a temporary pullback within the larger uptrend, rather than a signal of the bull market ending.

Can 2025 Follow Bitcoin’s 2013 Double-Peak Pattern as ETF Demand Kicks In?

Even though this analysis is all guesswork and nobody knows what Bitcoin will do next, we can try. 

Judging how Bitcoin has held strong for 2024 and is now at $76,000, Bitcoin can be arguably positioned similarly to 2013, a cycle driven by new retail interest and marked by two distinct peaks.

In 2013, Bitcoin first hit $259 in April, corrected down to the $70 range, then resumed its uptrend, reaching $1,100 by December. 

With ETFs now adding institutional inflows, 2024 could follow a similar trajectory as 2013, where an initial rally to around $125,000 is seen, followed by a pullback, and a second, larger peak potentially pushing beyond $420,000 before the cycle completes.

After reaching its first high of $259 in April 2013, Bitcoin spent roughly six months (about 180 days) ranging between $70 and $130. This consolidation phase lasted until early October 2013, when Bitcoin began to gain momentum again. Imagine a scenario where in late September 2025, Bitcoin spikes to $420,000 in 60 days upon some major White Swan announcement.

Price/Date Call Estimate

The following are forecasts set in July 2024:

• September 2024 Short-term (up to 3 months End Sep): $72,000 – 29 September Closing Price: $65,800 
• December 2024 Medium-term (3 months End Dec): $92,200.
• March 2025 Medium-term (6 months End Dec): $122,400
• November 2025 Long-term (6+ months End Mar): $420,700.

Overall Mid-Long Term Sentiment: Bearish / Neutral / Bullish

The market will likely be at higher prices over the next three to six months ending December.

What We Expect to Happen When Interest Rates Get Cut

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%, following a previous 0.50% reduction, the Fed is signaling an economic shift. As expected, lower rates tend to drive investors toward risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as traditional returns weaken. 

Tether co-founder William Quigley points out that in this environment, Bitcoin often gains value as investors seek higher yields. With further cuts possible and economic uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. election, Bitcoin could move toward $91,000 by Q4 2024. This bullish trend is already underway, responding predictably to the lower rate environment. For more, see William Quigley’s recent CCN interview on why Bitcoin thrives with interest rate cuts.

For a detailed analysis on why Bitcoin is bullish during times of interest rate hikes, the following is discussed in depth in the CCN interview with Tether co-Founder William Quigley.

Bitcoin Price Predictions by the Key Influencers

Insights From Key Bitcoin Analysts

2024 Bitcoin Predictions by Two Major Banks 

Standard Chartered Bank

Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin to reach $120,000  by the end of 2024. 

Bitcoin Mathematical Model Predictions

The Stock-To-Flow Model chart belonging to PlanB for Bitcoin indicates that BTC’s price is projected to reach approximately $100,000 by late 2024, driven by the halving event. Following the historical trend and the model’s trajectory, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward momentum, aiming for around $500,000 by 2025. By 2026, the model suggests a further increase, potentially reaching nearly $1 million per Bitcoin, assuming the pattern holds and external market factors align with historical behaviors. 

The Bitcoin Power Law presented above illustrates Bitcoin’s historical price action within a linear regression channel, often referred to as Bitcoin’s power law corridor. This model, which plots Bitcoin’s price on a log-log (logarithmic scale), uses linear regression to highlight the “fair value” of Bitcoin over time. As Bitcoin consolidates within this channel, it aligns with historical patterns, suggesting potential for significant upward movement, especially as it approaches key resistance levels around $98,000 by the end of 2024.

On-chain Analytics

MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score is now at 3.29, considered lowish. When the Z-Score is 7-10, it is high; Bitcoin is likely overvalued at this level, and when it’s low, the asset may be undervalued. 

Bitcoin Hashrate

The correlation between Bitcoin’s price and hash rate indicates that higher mining competition often accompanies price rallies, signaling strong support for Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum.

In an interview with CCN, Rob Chang explained the miners’ health post-halving. He explains that while more prominent, more efficient operations continue to thrive, smaller or less efficient miners can struggle to maintain profitability, leading to a consolidation within the mining industry post-halving.

Bitcoin Fact Box

From the Whitepaper

In its technical documentation or whitepaper, Bitcoin says it aims to make internet transactions easier and safer. 

It says: “Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust-based model.”

It adds: “What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.  Transactions that are computationally impractical to reverse would protect sellers from fraud, and routine escrow mechanisms could easily be implemented to protect buyers.”

What Is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, was launched in 2008.

Founded in the wake of the 2008 recession, Bitcoin serves as an alternative to traditional, fiat currency.

While fiat currency relies on centralization, Bitcoin is decentralized. It is based on the Bitcoin blockchain, a decentralized electronic ledger.

How Bitcoin Works

Bitcoin uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism.

FAQs 

Disclaimer 

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto user should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

About the Author

Andrew Kamsky

Andrew Kamsky is a writer and chart analyst, holding a degree in Economics and an ACCA certification. Andrew’s professional background spans roles at a Big Four accountancy firm, a fintech bank, and a chart analyst position at a listed bank focusing on foreign currency hedging. Beyond his financial career, Andrew is passionate about music, glass neon lights and travel.

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