Coinbase is preparing to launch a Kalshi-powered prediction market, signaling a major step into regulated forecasting products. Here are the key details to watch. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Coinbase is building a fully regulated prediction market, powered by Kalshi.
This move could bring prediction markets into the financial mainstream, thanks to Coinbase’s over 100 million verified users, trusted brand, and strong compliance history.
USDC stands to benefit massively, as Coinbase appears set to make it the default settlement currency for event markets.
Competition is intensifying, with Polymarket, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Truth Media all vying to upgrade their products ahead of Coinbase’s launch.
Prediction markets have gone from a niche curiosity to one of the hottest sectors in both crypto and traditional finance. In 2025, trading on questions like “Will the Fed cut rates?”, “Who will win the Super Bowl?” or “Will Bitcoin close above $120,000?” has exploded in popularity.
Mainstream exchanges, media companies, and fintech platforms are now racing to offer regulated markets where users can trade on real-world outcomes.
Now, Coinbase is entering the arena, and the impact could be enormous.
Tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong, famous for uncovering unreleased features across major platforms, revealed screenshots showing that Coinbase is building a Kalshi-powered prediction market website. The discovery confirms Coinbase’s long-term strategy: transforming from “just a crypto exchange” into an everything exchange, where users can trade crypto, derivatives, tokenized assets, and now, event contracts.
This article examines Coinbase’s new prediction market initiative, the role of Kalshi, the surge in popularity of prediction markets, and how Truth Media’s recent entry into prediction markets is influencing competition. Most importantly, we examine what investors should watch next.
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Categories including economics, science, politics, technology, and sports.
A built-in FAQ explaining betting limits, contracts, and settlement rules.
Behind the scenes, Coinbase is integrating directly with Kalshi, the U.S.-regulated event-contracts exchange. Screenshots reference “Coinbase Financial Markets”, the same division that runs Coinbase’s derivatives products.
Jane Manchun Wong leaked Coinbase’s venture with Kalshi. | Credit: Jane Manchun Wong X profile
Coinbase Predictions was removed after Wong’s leak. | Credit: Jane Manchun Wong X profile
Later, Wong noted another discovery: Coinbase is also working on a stock trading feature. Her findings suggest the company may be preparing to expand beyond crypto and prediction markets, hinting at a broader push toward traditional equities within the Coinbase ecosystem.
Why Prediction Markets Are Suddenly Exploding in 2025
Prediction markets are not new. Platforms like Intrade and Betfair were early pioneers in the industry. But 2024-2025 marked a turning point due to several factors:
Political volatility: The 2024 U.S. presidential cycle brought unprecedented interest in outcome trading.
Economic uncertainty: Investors are increasingly drawn to trading contracts based on inflation, CPI, interest rates, or recession odds.
Crypto-native demand: Platforms like Polymarket reached record volume, driven by faster settlement, lower fees, meme culture, “degen” trading trends, and global accessibility.
Regulated alternatives emerge: Kalshi received approval from U.S. regulators, marking the first fully compliant event-contract marketplace.
Media and social platforms enter the space: Prediction-market widgets, news integrations, and real-time contract pricing began to appear across major platforms.
Once Coinbase, a public U.S. company with over 100 million verified users, enters the market, prediction markets shift from niche to mainstream.
Attracting users who are already politically active.
Using real-time prediction prices as “sentiment indicators” on Truth Social.
Crypto.com’s upcoming prediction market product is also expected to tie into Trump Media, aligning with the company’s vision for “active political participation through markets.”
This move adds competitive pressure on Coinbase, Polymarket, and Kalshi, especially in U.S. election markets, where demand is enormous.
What Happens When Coinbase Enters Prediction Markets
Here’s what happens when Coinbase, a publicly listed company with one of the cleanest compliance track records in crypto, launches prediction markets:
1. The Entire Sector Gains Instant Legitimacy
When a regulated, publicly traded firm enters the space, prediction markets transition from a niche to a mainstream market. Suddenly they become:
More normal for everyday users.
More regulated, or at least expected to be.
More acceptable to institutions, funds, and fintech platforms.
More visible, thanks to broader financial media coverage.
Coinbase’s involvement reframes prediction markets from a fringe activity into a potentially recognized financial primitive.
2. Retail Adoption Becomes Dramatically Easier
Most people are reluctant to sign up for small or obscure platforms, even if the tech is excellent. But almost every U.S. crypto user already has a Coinbase account.
With one-click onboarding, prediction markets transition from a specialist tool to something that your average retail user can participate in without hesitation.
3. USDC Becomes the Default Settlement Layer
Coinbase’s push for prediction markets naturally reinforces its broader strategy: to make USDC the standard currency for global on-chain activity.
If prediction markets take off under Coinbase’s umbrella, USDC gains another robust use case, one that scales with volume and velocity.
U.S. regulators have historically been wary, and often restrictive, when it comes to “event contracts.”
But if Coinbase rolls out prediction markets in a compliant framework, it could:
Push regulators to formalize industry-wide rules.
Encourage other major platforms to join.
Legitimize prediction markets as a regulated financial product.
For once, compliance stops being a hurdle and becomes a tool for market expansion.
The Race to Modernize Prediction Markets: Coinbase, Kalshi, Polymarket and Truth Media
Prediction markets are transitioning from speculative crypto experiments into regulated financial instruments.
With Polymarket dominating crypto-native markets, Kalshi leading regulated contracts, and Truth Media pushing political-social integration, the sector is becoming a battleground for attention, liquidity, and legitimacy.
Coinbase’s Kalshi-powered platform may become the first fully mainstream prediction market in the U.S., thanks to a trusted brand, over 100 million users, regulatory clarity, USDC infrastructure, and deep product integration.
Its entry signals that prediction markets are no longer a fringe phenomenon; they’re a foundational pillar of the emerging digital economy.
A prediction market is a platform where users can trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each event has “Yes” or “No” contracts that move in price based on the probability of that outcome occurring. If your contract settles correctly, you get $1; if not, you get $0.
What makes Coinbase entering the prediction-market space such a big deal?
Coinbase is one of the most trusted and regulated cryptocurrency companies in the world, with over 100 million verified users. When a company of that size launches prediction markets, the entire sector becomes instantly more legitimate, easier to access, and more acceptable to mainstream audiences.
Is Coinbase building its own prediction market or using someone else’s technology?
Coinbase is integrating directly with Kalshi, the first fully regulated U.S. event-contracts exchange. This means Coinbase will offer prediction markets powered by Kalshi’s regulatory framework, while using Coinbase’s own brand, interface, and settlement system.
Why are prediction markets suddenly so popular?
Because they provide real-time answers to important questions. Volatile political cycles, economic uncertainty, and a huge surge of interest in outcome trading have all contributed to record activity. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Truth Media integrations have helped push prediction markets into the mainstream.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
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