Key Takeaways
- Crypto’s Oct. 10, 2025, crash triggered over $19 billion in liquidations, wiping out leveraged positions as Bitcoin plunged more than 14%.
- Bitcoin open interest recently climbed 4% in seven days, almost matching the 4.1% increase before last year’s crash, although funding rates suggest less aggressive speculation.
- More than $403 million in long positions were liquidated within an hour on Oct. 7, raising fresh concerns about leverage, liquidity and macroeconomic risks.
October 10, 2025, remains one of the darkest dates in cryptocurrency trading history.
Within 24 hours, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, triggering the largest single-day liquidation event recorded in crypto markets.
Nearly one year later, some familiar warning signs are resurfacing.
Bitcoin’s derivatives market has shown renewed leverage accumulation, Ethereum’s open interest remains elevated relative to its market capitalization, and another wave of liquidations has hit traders just days before the anniversary.
However, the latest data also reveals important differences.
Is crypto approaching another historic liquidation event, or are traders confusing similar leverage figures with an entirely different market environment?
What Happened During Crypto’s $19B Crash on October 10, 2025?
The October 2025 crash began with an unexpected macroeconomic shock.
US President Donald Trump threatened an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, triggering a selloff across risk assets.
Crypto markets reacted particularly violently.
Reportedly, Bitcoin fell to approximately $106,560, while Ethereum dropped to $3,551 and Solana reached $174.
The damage extended far beyond major cryptocurrencies.
https://twitter.com/cryptorover/status/2107681897291579841
Average token declines across CoinDesk Data’s tracked universe reached approximately 47%, exceeding the roughly 41% average decline recorded during the May 2021 crash.
Meanwhile, perpetual futures open interest contracted 43% to $123 billion, including a 57% decline on Hyperliquid.
The selloff also exposed vulnerabilities in crypto market infrastructure.
As leveraged positions were liquidated, market makers withdrew liquidity, making it increasingly difficult to execute trades without causing additional price declines.
Ethena’s USDe briefly traded around $0.65 on Binance, adding pressure to interconnected collateral and derivatives markets.
The result was a cascading liquidation event rather than an ordinary market correction.
Bitcoin Open Interest Is Rebuilding Before the Anniversary
One of the clearest similarities between October 2025 and October 2026 is the behavior of Bitcoin’s derivatives market.
According to CoinGlass data examined in an Oct. 7 market comparison, Bitcoin open interest increased 4% over seven days to approximately 650,480 BTC.
Immediately before the October 2025 crash, open interest had increased 4.1% over five days.
The resemblance becomes more interesting when leverage is measured relative to market capitalization.
| Metric |
Before 10/10 Crash |
October 2026 |
| BTC open interest growth |
4.1% in five days |
4% in seven days |
| BTC open interest/market cap |
3.70% |
3.20% |
| ETH open interest/market cap |
11.30% |
10.40% |
These figures suggest that leverage remains significant relative to market size.
However, open interest alone cannot predict a crash.
It measures outstanding derivatives positions, not whether traders are overwhelmingly betting on higher prices.
That distinction matters because another indicator tells a different story.
Funding Rates Suggest Crypto Is Less Overheated Than in 2025
Funding rates help reveal whether leveraged traders are aggressively positioning for higher or lower prices.
When funding becomes persistently elevated, long traders generally pay higher costs to maintain their positions.
That can indicate an increasingly crowded bullish trade.
Before the October 2025 crash, annualized Bitcoin and Ethereum funding rates on Binance and Bybit exceeded 8% on 18 of 32 exchange-days examined in the comparison.
During the comparable October 2026 period, funding exceeded that threshold only once across 28 observations and turned negative three times.
This is an important difference.
https://twitter.com/Crypto__Haris/status/2107423119023735268
Although leverage has rebuilt, traders are not paying the same consistently elevated premiums to maintain bullish exposure.
Coinbase Institutional’s October 2026 report reinforces that distinction.
Bitcoin’s leverage ratio declined for a fourth consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since August 2024.
That weakens the argument that another liquidation cascade is inevitable.
October 7 Liquidations Raise Fresh Concerns
Despite relatively restrained funding rates, leveraged traders remain vulnerable to sudden price movements.
On Oct. 7, Bitcoin declined toward $84,100 while Ethereum fell approximately 3.5%.
The move triggered roughly $403.58 million in long liquidations within one hour.
The selloff demonstrated how quickly leveraged positions can unravel even without the extreme conditions preceding last year’s crash.
Macroeconomic pressures are also intensifying.
On Oct. 7, Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.284%, and the US Dollar Index climbed to 102.24.
Bitcoin fell toward $83,323 as higher yields and a stronger dollar pressured risk assets.
Unlike October 2025, however, there has been no equivalent sudden tariff announcement triggering a marketwide liquidation cascade.
ETF Inflows and Liquidity Offer a Different Picture
Another important difference is institutional demand.
Coinbase Institutional reported approximately $2.6 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows during September 2026, including roughly $2.7 billion during the week beginning Sept. 21.
Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $900 million over the month.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s order-book data showed improving bid-side liquidity.
Bitcoin’s order book approached balance between buyers and sellers, while Ethereum’s became more heavily weighted toward bids for the first time in months.
These developments suggest that spot demand could provide some support during periods of derivatives-driven selling.
However, stronger ETF inflows do not guarantee protection against sudden market shocks.
Liquidity can disappear quickly when volatility rises, as October 2025 demonstrated.
Altcoin Leverage Could Be the Bigger Warning Sign
While Bitcoin leverage has cooled, speculative activity has increasingly shifted toward smaller cryptocurrencies.
Coinbase reported that altcoin open interest dominance averaged 0.86 in September, compared with 0.71 in August.
The measure finished September slightly above 1.0, a level last recorded in early February.
https://twitter.com/GrantCardone/status/2106383478967488534
Average altcoin market capitalization also increased approximately 22% month over month.
This suggests that leverage-related vulnerabilities may be concentrated outside Bitcoin.
That matters because smaller cryptocurrencies generally have thinner liquidity, making them more susceptible to sharp price movements during forced liquidations.
Will Crypto’s October 10 Crash Repeat in 2026?
The data presents a mixed picture.
Bitcoin open interest has recently grown at a pace resembling the buildup before October 2025. Ethereum leverage also remains relatively elevated, and the Oct. 7 liquidation wave demonstrates that forced selling remains a significant risk.
However, funding rates are considerably less aggressive, Bitcoin’s leverage ratio has declined, and institutional spot demand remains positive.
The clearest warning is not the October 10 anniversary itself, but the combination of leverage, weakening liquidity and an unexpected macroeconomic catalyst.
Last year’s crash required all three.
October 2026 has some of the ingredients, but current evidence does not establish that another $19 billion liquidation event is imminent.
The anniversary may revive painful memories for traders.
Whether history repeats will depend on market positioning and the next major shock, not the date on the calendar.
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Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
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