The landscape of prediction markets is currently split between the blockchain-based, permissionless Polymarket and the more centralized, U.S.-regulated Kalshi. But what if it were possible to do both?
That’s the premise behind the Clearing Company, a new venture that emerged from stealth on Wednesday, Aug. 27 with a vision to offer regulated, on-chain prediction markets.
The Clearing Company was founded by a team with previously experience at both Polymarket and Kalshi.
The startup has raised a $15 million seed round led by Union Square Ventures, with participation from Haun Ventures, Variant, Coinbase Ventures, and others.
Like the other platforms it draws inspiration from, the Clearing Company downplays similarities with traditional bookmakers to emphasize how prediction markets function as “collective intelligence.”
“Today, prediction markets function as a new kind of news, surfacing live forecasts rather than lagging headlines. Markets force honesty because being wrong carries a real cost, and traders are incentivized to price without bias.”
The Clearing Company isn’t alone in its vision for regulated, on-chain prediction markets.
Earlier this year, Polymarket acquired QCEX—a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
With the acquisition, “we are laying the foundation to bring Polymarket home — re-entering the U.S. as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions,” CEO Shayne Coplan stated at the time.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is increasingly making moves in the crypto space, although it hasn’t indicated any plans to introduce on-chain trading.
How regulated, on-chain prediction markets will work in practice remains to be seen.
While the CFTC does not have a hard rule that exchanges must settle transactions in dollars, in practice, fiat USD is the only settlement medium accepted at CFTC-regulated clearinghouses.
However, the GENIUS Act opens the door for bank-issued stablecoins to be used in wholesale payment and settlement systems.
If the CFTC and banking regulators collaborate, they could create frameworks where trades still clear under CFTC rules, but banks act as intermediaries, converting between USD and stablecoins for settlement.
This would enable prediction market platforms to incorporate stablecoin payments into a regulated futures exchange.