Key Takeaways
- DOGE’s 365-day MVRV implies average unrealized losses of 26%, compared with approximately 8% for XRP’s measured cohort.
- Santiment sees these underwater positions as potentially favorable opportunity signals, while BTC, ETH, and LINK remain near breakeven.
- Low MVRV does not confirm a bottom; stronger demand and price stabilization would strengthen the rebound case.
XRP and Dogecoin are flashing on-chain signals that Santiment associates with more favorable buying conditions, as losses among investors active over the past year distinguish both tokens from several major cryptocurrencies.
Dogecoin’s 365-day market value to realized value ratio, or MVRV, stands near 0.74, while XRP’s sits around 0.92, according to Santiment.
Both readings place the measured cohorts underwater on average, potentially reducing the incentive to sell for profits.
The figures support a potential recovery setup. However, they do not establish that either token has reached a bottom, and an earlier Santiment update shows why the distinction matters.
DOGE Shows Deeper Losses Than XRP
Expressed as returns relative to the measured cost basis, Dogecoin’s 0.74 ratio implies an average unrealized loss of approximately 26%. XRP’s 0.92 reading translates into a loss of roughly 8%.
That makes DOGE the more depressed asset on this particular measure. It also means its holders face a substantially larger recovery hurdle before reaching breakeven.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink look comparatively neutral. Their 365-day MVRV readings cluster between 0.97 and 1.04, corresponding to positions ranging from approximately 3% underwater to 4% in profit.
Santiment interprets the contrast as evidence that XRP and DOGE offer more favorable positioning than assets whose holders have accumulated large unrealized gains.
The reasoning centers on selling incentives: investors sitting on substantial profits may cash out, adding supply to the market. Underwater holders have fewer gains to realize, although they can still sell to limit losses.
A methodological detail also matters. Santiment’s 365-day metric includes coins that moved at least once during the previous year. It therefore measures a time-bound on-chain cohort, rather than the documented purchase returns of every investor who bought during that period.
September’s Signal Shows Why Timing Remains Uncertain
The latest readings follow a similar warning about investor pain almost a month earlier.
On Sept. 23, Santiment reported XRP’s 365-day MVRV at approximately negative 11.75% and Dogecoin’s at negative 19.26%. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink were slightly profitable on the same measure.
Since then, XRP’s measured profitability has improved, with average losses narrowing to approximately 8%. Dogecoin’s has deteriorated, with losses widening to roughly 26%.
That divergence complicates any blanket claim that both tokens are already recovering. They share below-breakeven readings, but the direction of their cohort profitability has differed.
The comparison also illustrates the limits of treating an opportunity signal as a countdown to a rally. DOGE already showed substantial holder losses in September, yet its latest reading reflects deeper pain.
Because these are rolling cohorts, the changes can reflect both price movements and shifts in which coins qualify for the calculation. They should not be read as the performance of an unchanged investor portfolio.
What Would Strengthen the Recovery Case?
The broader analytical framework supports watching these levels, with qualifications.
Glassnode’s MVRV documentation says readings below one have historically accompanied capitulation and late-stage bear-market accumulation.
It also cautions that low readings can reflect weak demand, alongside possible undervaluation. Its framework is broader than Santiment’s specific 365-day cohorts.
Santiment’s own historical research likewise evaluates MVRV across multiple timeframes and recommends combining it with measures such as address activity, token circulation, and large-holder supply.
For XRP and DOGE, stronger demand accompanying price stabilization would make the recovery argument more convincing. Continued selling despite deeply negative holder returns would weaken it.
The current signal identifies investor pain and potentially better entry conditions. Whether that pain is ending depends on buyers absorbing supply, rather than on losses alone.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
