XRP Price Faces Critical Test as Bears Target a Drop Below $1

XRP is entering a decisive phase as its latest recovery struggles to overcome resistance near $1.09. The token is trading around $1.06 after buyers defended an important demand zone just above $1, but the wider technical structure continues to favor sellers.

The next move could determine whether XRP begins a more meaningful recovery or falls through the psychologically important $1 threshold.

Bulls must first reclaim former support at $1.08–$1.09. Failure to do so would leave the token vulnerable to renewed selling and a possible decline toward the $0.80-$0.90 range.

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XRP’s Broader Trend Still Favors Sellers

The daily chart shows XRP trading inside a long-term descending channel and below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This combination suggests that the latest rebound has not altered the prevailing bearish trend.

Recent recovery attempts have repeatedly stalled before establishing a higher high. Instead, sellers have returned near resistance, reinforcing the impression that rallies are being used to exit positions rather than build long-term exposure.

XRP daily chart. | Credit: CoinMarketCap

Buyers have nevertheless continued to defend the $1.02-$1.04 area. XRP bounced after testing this zone again, showing that demand has not disappeared completely.

However, support often becomes less reliable after repeated tests because each decline absorbs some of the available buying orders.

A daily close below $1.02 would weaken the remaining bullish argument and increase the risk of a move under $1. The next significant demand zone would then sit around $0.89.

Former Support Becomes a Critical Resistance Test

The four-hour chart highlights the immediate obstacle facing XRP. The token recently broke below an ascending trendline that had connected a series of higher lows, indicating that buyers had lost control of the short-term structure.

That breakdown carried XRP into the $1.02-$1.04 region before bargain hunters triggered a recovery. The bounce has now brought the price back toward $1.08–$1.09, an area that previously functioned as support.

Because broken support frequently turns into resistance, the current retest may determine XRP’s near-term direction. A rejection could send the price back toward $1.02, further straining the support zone.

A decisive break above $1.09, however, would improve the short-term outlook and could open the way toward $1.16-$1.18.

Bulls would still need to reclaim the larger $1.24-$1.28 supply zone before claiming a genuine trend reversal.

Could Bearish Positioning Trigger a Rebound?

Some analysts see the potential for XRP to fall toward $0.80-$0.90 if support collapses. From its current price, that would represent a decline of approximately 15% to 25%.

Broader cryptocurrency weakness adds to the risk. XRP remains sensitive to Bitcoin’s direction, and fragile market confidence has reduced demand for speculative altcoin positions.

Without a wider recovery, XRP may struggle to generate the trading volume required for a sustained breakout.

‼️ $XRP DAILY CHART UPDATE ‼️

Price is now retesting the exact trendline that was holding as support since the $1.00 low back in June. Failure to break above this trendline will resort in a bearish retest back towards the local lows.

Invalidation: reclaim the trendline/50 EMA. https://t.co/fLHbbT7wNy pic.twitter.com/TjLfW5SiLs

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) July 30, 2026

Futures positioning offers one possible counterargument. XRP funding rates have dropped to unusually depressed levels, suggesting traders are heavily tilted toward bearish positions.

If the price unexpectedly breaks higher, short sellers could be forced to close their positions, accelerating a rebound.

Negative funding alone does not guarantee a recovery, however. XRP must still confirm strength through price action. A move above $1.09 would offer the first encouraging signal, while reclaiming $1.24-$1.28 would challenge the broader downtrend.

Until then, losing $1.02 remains the key risk separating XRP from a potentially deeper fall below $1.

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