Arthur Hayes’s $100,000–$200,000 Ethereum forecast hinges on an AI bust triggering a market selloff.
Share
Key Takeaways
Arthur Hayes says Ethereum could reach $100,000–$200,000 at the peak of the next market cycle.
He expects an AI-related credit crisis to trigger an initial selloff in risk assets, followed by a liquidity response that could benefit crypto.
The Oct. 13 semiconductor rout coincided with heavy crypto liquidations, but does not prove Hayes’s predicted crisis has begun.
Ethereum could reach $200,000 in the next market cycle, according to BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes.
In a July 10 interview with the Thinking Crypto podcast, Hayes argued that the AI investment boom could eventually unwind and trigger a financial crisis.
He expects crypto to fall alongside other risk assets before governments and central banks respond with measures that could return liquidity to the market.
The scenario has resurfaced as investors have seen how quickly pressure can cross between markets.
On Oct. 13, an Asian semiconductor selloff coincided with more than $800 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours; Ethereum accounted for about $178 million.
Try Our Recommended Crypto Exchanges
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
Hayes puts Ethereum between $100,000 and $200,000 at the peak of the next cycle; he has also repeatedly reiterated a $1 million target for Bitcoin.
His concern is that AI companies may struggle to justify the scale of their spending.
Hayes pointed to loans used to finance graphics processing units, which can lose value quickly as newer chips arrive, and to lower-priced Chinese AI models that could challenge assumptions about future revenue.
“If it’s all about if we go to the China price,” Hayes said, the cash-flow assumptions behind GPU financing could become “spurious.”
He described the resulting credit event as “bigger than subprime.”
“AI sucked all the capital out of the room,” he said, adding that it “continues to suck all the capital.”
He expects the eventual unwinding of that trade to drag down risk assets before a government and central bank response changes the market conditions.
Semiconductor Rout Offers a Test of the Selloff Risk
The Oct. 13 market moves showed how crypto can be affected during a technology-sector selloff.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell about 8% amid concerns over AI valuations and competition from Chinese chipmakers, while Bitcoin briefly dropped below $81,000.
South Korea's AI-driven stock market selloff is intensifying:
The KOSPI plunged as much as -7.4% on Tuesday, briefly falling below 6,000 for the first time since late July and triggering a temporary trading halt, before closing down -5.5%. $EWY
From that level, Hayes’s $100,000 target would require a rise of roughly 39 times, while $200,000 would require about 80 times.
At an estimated circulating supply of 122.1 million ETH, those prices would imply market capitalizations of approximately $12.2 trillion and $24.4 trillion, respectively, if supply stayed near that level.
At roughly $5.5 trillion, Nvidia was worth less than half of ETH’s $12.2 trillion valuation in mid-October 2026.
The $24.4 trillion implied by Hayes’s $200,000 target would come close to the combined value of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies.
That comparison shows the scale of Hayes’s call, as even the $100,000 target would put Ethereum’s implied value at more than twice Nvidia’s.
Reaching either level would require an extraordinary repricing of Ethereum.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
