Key Takeaways
- $1 million Bitcoin is moving into the mainstream.
- Supply scarcity remains the core bullish thesis.
- AI models disagree on timing.
Bitcoin reaching $1 million was once considered a fringe prediction reserved for the asset’s most enthusiastic supporters.
Today, however, seven-figure forecasts are increasingly coming from mainstream asset managers, research firms, and even academic studies.
The latest call came from VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, who recently said Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next five years.
Meanwhile, a 2025 academic paper predicting Bitcoin could hit $1 million or $2 million as early as 2027 has recently resurfaced across social media.
With no shortage of theories explaining how Bitcoin could eventually reach seven figures, we asked ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok to evaluate the assumptions behind these forecasts.
Can Bitcoin really hit $1 million?
Bitcoin’s $1 Million Price Forecasts Keep Coming
Bitcoin has spent much of the past decade defying both its supporters and critics.
Predictions of a $1 million Bitcoin have circulated since the asset first crossed $10,000. Still, the forecasts have only intensified as Bitcoin repeatedly recovered from major crashes and went on to set new all-time highs.
It surged above $69,000 in 2021 before collapsing more than 70% during the 2022 bear market.
It later rebounded to fresh record highs following rapid institutional participation, and has since dropped again — albeit not as low as before.
That resilience has encouraged a growing number of analysts to view seven-figure price targets as a true possibility.
While timelines differ dramatically, forecasts from firms including VanEck, Bitwise, and Strategy share the view that Bitcoin’s heading toward $1 million.
VanEck Joins Growing Chorus of Bitcoin Price Bulls
Speaking on CNBC, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said the asset manager sees Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation as its “base case.”
“We think this asset’s gonna reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said.
At the time of the interview, Bitcoin was trading near $80,000, implying a more than twelvefold increase would be required to reach the target.
Sigel argued that adoption trends remained favorable, particularly among younger investors and institutions.
“We now have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves,” he said, describing Bitcoin adoption as a “mega trend.”
Sigel’s comments follow similar forecasts from other prominent industry figures.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has repeatedly described a $1 million Bitcoin as “inevitable,” while Arthur Hayes has projected Bitcoin could eventually trade between $750,000 and $1 million.
JAN3 CEO Samson Mow has also maintained that Bitcoin remains “on track” to reach seven figures.
Meanwhile, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has offered a somewhat longer timeline, arguing Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade.
Academic Study Predicts $1M Bitcoin Price
A 2025 academic paper that found Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027 has also resurfaced on social media recently.
The study uses a supply-and-demand equilibrium model specifically designed for Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule.
The authors argue that if more than 1,000 BTC are withdrawn from the liquid circulating supply each day, Bitcoin could reach $1 million by early 2027.
According to the paper, once withdrawals exceed that threshold, Bitcoin’s price trajectory becomes increasingly steep.
Under more aggressive accumulation scenarios, the model projects Bitcoin reaching $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.
We asked AI for its take on the forecasts.
ChatGPT: Plausible, But The Timeline Looks Too Aggressive
ChatGPT viewed the study’s core logic as economically sound but questioned whether accumulation rates can remain high enough.
“The supply-shock thesis is real. Bitcoin’s fixed issuance means sustained institutional buying can have an outsized impact on price compared with traditional assets,” it wrote.
However, the model said a move to $1 million by 2027 would likely require an exceptionally favorable combination of ETF inflows and supportive macroeconomic conditions.
“My base case is Bitcoin reaching between $300,000 and $600,000 before 2030,” it said.
Adding: “A $1 million Bitcoin is possible, but I would assign a much lower probability to the 2027 timeline.”
Gemini: Supply Constraints Could Trigger A Rapid Repricing
Google’s Gemini was more receptive to the study’s conclusions.
“The paper correctly identifies Bitcoin’s most unique characteristic: supply cannot respond to demand,” it wrote.
The AI added that institutional accumulation accelerates while liquid supply continues shrinking, meaning prices could rise much faster than traditional valuation models anticipate.
Gemini noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs have already removed significant amounts of Bitcoin from active circulation and argued that sovereign adoption could amplify the trend.
Its outlook breaks down into three scenarios:
- Bearish: $180,000-$300,000
- Base case: $500,000-$900,000
- Bullish: $1 million-$1.5 million
“A seven-figure Bitcoin is no longer a fringe outcome. The key question is timing.”
Claude: The Math Works, The Assumptions May Not
Anthropic’s Claude delivered the most skeptical assessment.
While acknowledging that Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are unique, Claude argued that the study relies heavily on assumptions about future demand that are difficult to verify.
“The model demonstrates what could happen if large-scale withdrawals continue indefinitely,” it wrote.
Adding: “The challenge is proving that demand growth will remain strong enough to sustain those withdrawals.”
Claude also highlighted Bitcoin’s history of long cyclical drawdowns.
Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced 70% to 80% declines, the AI noted, adding that any model projecting exponential growth should account for the possibility that adoption may slow.
Its base-case forecast places Bitcoin between $200,000 and $400,000 by the end of the decade.
“Could Bitcoin reach $1 million? Yes. Do I consider it the most likely outcome by 2027 or 2028? No.”
Grok: The Study May Actually Be Too Conservative
The most bullish response came from xAI’s Grok.
According to Grok, the study captures a dynamic that many traditional analysts still underestimate.
“Bitcoin’s market increasingly resembles a supply squeeze. Every cycle, more coins move into long-term storage while institutional access becomes easier.”
Grok argued that even modest sovereign adoption could dramatically alter Bitcoin’s valuation framework.
“If nation-states begin treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a $1 million Bitcoin could arrive faster than most investors expect,” it said.
Its forecast ranges were:
- Bearish: $250,000-$450,000
- Base case: $750,000-$1.2 million
- Bullish: $2 million+
Adding: “The biggest mistake bears continue making is assuming Bitcoin behaves like a normal asset. Its supply structure is fundamentally different.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
