Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million in about 10 years.
Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows.
Some analysts project major upside for Bitcoin, but others, such as Arthur Hayes, remain cautious.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade if it captures a modest share of a rapidly expanding global store-of-value market, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in a recent investor memo.
The prediction implies roughly a 14-fold increase from current levels, as Bitcoin was trading at around $69,610, down over 2% in the last week.
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Using that framework, he said Bitcoin’s long-term price can be estimated by calculating the size of the global store-of-value market, determining Bitcoin’s share of that market, and dividing the resulting value by Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins.
Currently, the store-of-value market is worth just under $38 trillion, consisting of about $36 trillion in Gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin, according to Bitwise estimates.
That means Bitcoin today represents slightly less than 4% of the market.
At that market size, Bitcoin would need to capture more than half of the store-of-value market to reach $1 million per coin—an outcome Hougan acknowledged would be difficult.
Gold market cap | Source: Bitwise Asset Management with data from World Gold Council and Bloomberg.
However, he said the key assumption often overlooked is that the market itself has grown significantly over time and may continue expanding.
Hougan pointed to Gold’s rise over the past two decades.
Around the launch of the first U.S. gold exchange-traded fund in 2004, the total gold market was valued at roughly $2.5 trillion.
It has since expanded to nearly $40 trillion, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 13%.
If that pace continues, Hougan estimated the global store-of-value market could grow to roughly $121 trillion within 10 years.
In that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a price of $1 million.
Is It Possible?
While that would represent a significant gain from its current share, Hougan said institutional adoption and broader investment allocations could make the shift plausible.
“A few years ago, there were no U.S. bitcoin ETFs and few institutional holders,” Hougan wrote, adding that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have since become among the fastest-growing in history.
“…Bitcoin is owned by everyone from the Harvard endowment to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, and Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has declined to the point that many professional investors are considering 5% allocations,” he said.
Adding: “There are still miles to go, but with these undercurrents, capturing one-sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme.”
Recent exchange-traded fund (ETF) data suggests investor demand may be shifting back toward Bitcoin.
Over the past 30 days, net flows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive, reversing the heavy withdrawals seen earlier in the year.
📈 JUST IN: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $246.9M in inflows, following $167.1M on Monday.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led the rebound, attracting about $185.8 million in recent inflows.
At the same time, gold-backed ETFs have begun to see outflows following a prolonged period of strong demand.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest U.S. gold ETF, recently recorded its biggest single-day withdrawal in more than two years, according to market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter.
Other Analysts See Strong Bitcoin Price Upside
Hougan’s projection comes amid a renewed wave of bullish forecasts from crypto analysts.
🚨 Bitcoin at $67k… but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! 📈 Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? 🤔 What's your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj
Pseudonymous analyst PlanB said Bitcoin could average around $500,000 during the current 2024–2028 market cycle under his Stock-to-Flow model, which values Bitcoin based on its programmed scarcity.
The model implies an average price near $500,000 for the cycle, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially reach between $250,000 and $1 million if historical patterns repeat.
Caution Remains
Not all market observers are rushing to buy bitcoin at current levels.
In a recent interview, Maelstrom Fund Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes said he would not purchase Bitcoin today—even if he had only $1 to invest—arguing that the next major rally will likely require a renewed wave of global liquidity.
Hayes said he is waiting for a clearer signal that central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, are returning to aggressive monetary easing.
For now, he said his portfolio is positioned defensively, split evenly between cash and gold.
“When central banks start printing money again, that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin,” he said.
In the meantime, Hayes warned that several macroeconomic risks could pressure markets in the near term, including geopolitical tensions and potential economic disruption linked to rapid advances in AI.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
