Can Bitcoin really hit $1M? More and more institutions believe it can. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million in about 10 years.
Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows.
Some analysts project major upside for Bitcoin, but others, such as Arthur Hayes, remain cautious.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel said in a bullish forecast, adding to a growing wave of optimistic predictions from major crypto industry figures.
The recent comments come despite persistent concerns about macroeconomic risks and a potential further drop in the price of the world’s largest crypto.
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Speaking on CNBC, Sigel said VanEck sees Bitcoin’s long-term rise as its “base case,” even as it continues to trade in sharp cycles.
“We think this asset’s gonna reach a million dollars over the next several years,” he said.
Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 at the time of the interview, meaning a move to $1 million would imply more than a 12-fold increase in value.
Sigel said a five-year timeline for Bitcoin reaching seven figures was “possible,” pointing to growing adoption among younger investors and institutional interest.
“We now have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves,” Sigel said, describing it as a “mega trend.”
He compared Bitcoin adoption to the growth of the video game industry, arguing that younger generations entering the financial system are increasingly likely to hold digital assets long term.
“When you look at the demographic trends and the intentions of young investors to allocate to Bitcoin, it can be like the video game industry,” Sigel said.
Adding: “People don’t quit Bitcoin.”
Despite the bullish outlook, Sigel cautioned that Bitcoin remains highly cyclical and subject to large swings.
“There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so there will be cycles along the way,” he said.
Sigel also noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq had recently climbed to a five-year high.
Still, he said VanEck remains constructive because derivatives markets are not showing signs of excessive speculation.
More Aggressive Than Bitwise’s $1 Million Call
VanEck’s projection is significantly more bullish than a recent forecast from Bitwise Asset Management, which argued Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next decade.
In an investor memo, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin’s long-term valuation should be analyzed as a digital store-of-value asset competing primarily with gold.
Under that framework, Hougan estimated Bitcoin’s future value based on the size of the global store-of-value market and Bitcoin’s potential share of that market.
Gold market cap | Source: Bitwise Asset Management with data from World Gold Council and Bloomberg.
According to Bitwise estimates, the current global store-of-value market is worth nearly $38 trillion, largely composed of gold and Bitcoin.
Hougan argued that many analysts overlook the possibility that the total store-of-value market could continue expanding rapidly over time.
He pointed to the growth of the gold market since the launch of US gold exchange-traded funds in 2004, noting that gold’s total market value had risen from roughly $2.5 trillion to nearly $40 trillion over two decades.
If the broader store-of-value market expands to around $121 trillion over the next 10 years, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of that market to reach $1 million per coin, according to Bitwise’s projections.
Chorus of Bitcoin Price Bulls
VanEck and Bitwise join a growing list of prominent Bitcoin advocates forecasting dramatic long-term gains for Bitcoin.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor has repeatedly said BTC reaching $1 million is “inevitable.”
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has projected Bitcoin could trade between $750,000 and $1 million within the next few years.
JAN3 CEO Samson Mow has also maintained that Bitcoin remains “on track” to hit seven figures.
Many bullish forecasts center on concerns about rising global debt levels and the expectation that governments and central banks will continue to expand the money supply over time.
Supporters argue that Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins gives it an advantage as a scarce asset amid monetary expansion.
The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US has also strengthened the bullish case.
Skeptics, however, argue that many of the most optimistic forecasts underestimate the scale of adoption required for Bitcoin to reach seven figures.
At a $1 million price, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would approach roughly $20 trillion, placing it above the current value of the global gold market.
We asked ChatGPT and Grok for their take on the bullish forecast.
ChatGPT’s $1 Million Bitcoin Price Take
Asked about the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching seven figures within that timeframe, ChatGPT described the target as “possible but extremely dependent on global liquidity conditions and sustained institutional demand.”
“A move to $1 million would require Bitcoin to mature from a speculative asset into a globally accepted reserve-like asset,” the AI model said.
“That transition may happen eventually, but expecting it within five years assumes a pace of adoption that financial markets rarely sustain without interruption.”
ChatGPT also warned that Bitcoin remains heavily tied to broader risk sentiment despite growing institutional participation.
“Bitcoin still trades like a macro-sensitive asset during periods of tightening liquidity and market stress,” it added. “Large forecasts make for compelling narratives, but volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain significant obstacles.”
Grok Pushes Back
Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok offered a more skeptical assessment, criticizing what it described as increasingly exaggerated crypto forecasts.
“Every cycle, someone predicts Bitcoin is going straight to the moon,” Grok said.
“A $1 million target sounds exciting, but turning Bitcoin into a $20 trillion-plus asset isn’t just a meme — that would require one of the biggest capital reallocations in financial history.”
Grok also pushed back against the assumption that institutional and sovereign adoption alone would rapidly push prices higher.
“Buying a few billion dollars of Bitcoin through ETFs is one thing,” it said.
“Convincing governments, pension funds, and corporations worldwide to treat Bitcoin like digital gold at a massive scale is something else entirely.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
