A look at the 2025 Christmas rally and if Bitcoin can outperform gold, highlighting seasonal trends, macro pressures, and investor sentiment. | Credit: Veronica Cestari/CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Gold’s market cap hit $30 trillion, widening its lead over Bitcoin’s market value.
Indicators show a bearish setup, with BTC at risk of dropping below $100,000.
For years, Bitcoin’s (BTC) fiercest believers imagined a day when its market cap would rival Gold’s.
But now, it appears that the road to parity looks longer than ever as Gold’s market cap has hit $30 trillion for the first time.
For BTC to match that figure, it needs a 1,500% rally.
But by the look of things, this might not be easy as Bitcoin’s price continues to struggle to retest its all-time high. Gold’s price, on the other hand, has notched a record high above $4,300.
For BTC to bridge that gap, its prices would need to surge above $1 million per coin. But how feasible is that?
Why Gold Price Is Outperforming BTC
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Gold’s price has increased nearly 65%. Bitcoin’s price, on the other hand, has recorded an 11% increase.
This is one of the few years that the precious metal has outperformed the flagship cryptocurrency.
Several factors seem to be driving gold’s record-breaking run, and they’re not all about market speculation.
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Rising economic uncertainty, ballooning government debt, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown have amplified fears about fiscal stability.
As a result, investors are flocking to gold as a hedge against the growing possibility of economic strain.
Adding to that, concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence have increased.
Markets fear that political pressure could push the Fed to cut interest rates prematurely, which might stoke inflation. Since gold has historically served as a store of value and inflation hedge, these worries fuel further demand.
Geopolitics is also playing a key role. Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions have intensified after U.S. officials condemned China’s new rare earth export restrictions, sparking fears of global supply chain disruptions.
However, the biggest force behind the metal’s rise may be institutional — specifically, a surge in demand from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
These ETFs have been aggressively accumulating gold, amplifying buying pressure and adding liquidity to the market. If this trend continues, Gold’s price will likely inch closer to $5,000 before the year ends.
Bitcoin has experienced a mixture of ups and downs. Over the past few months, Bitcoin ETFs have seen an increase in inflows, driving the price above $126,000.
However, today, the BTC price has dropped 16.9% from its all-time high, as institutions have recently opted against adding more funds to their stack.
Following the development, renowned economist and Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff opined that the Bitcoin bear market will be brutal.
“It’s not just a de-dollarization trade but a de-bitcoinization trade. Bitcoin has failed the test as a viable alternative to the U.S. dollar or digital gold. HODLers are in denial and their refusal to accept reality will cost them dearly,” Schiff wrote on X.
In another post, he added that Gold’s price will likely hit $1 million before Bitcoin.
Fellow Gold maximalist Peter Spina echoed the sentiment, saying that Bitcoin’s price action is nothing compared to Gold’s performance.
“Since 2021, Bitcoin has failed to make a breakout run against real money = Gold. Now with the uptrend from 2023 failing, one has to question if another tumble is coming and what does that mean for all markets? Is Bitcoin still a good liquidity indicator?” Spina asked.
Others Remain Bullish
However, Mexican Billionaire Ricardo Salinas had a different opinion. According to the outspoken Bitcoin advocate, the price will catch up with Gold and outperform it later.
“Bitcoin will go up at least 14 times ( means $1.516 Million USD) to catch up with Gold — and then it will continue to outperform,” Salinas emphasized.
BTC Price Eyes $98K Drawdown
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart paints a cautious picture.
The cryptocurrency has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a setup associated with trend reversals. A closer look reveals that Bitcoin’s price has already broken below the neckline at $108,905, confirming the bearish structure.
Adding to the downside risk, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flashed a bearish crossover, reinforcing weakening momentum. At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has slipped into the negative region, signaling that sellers are in control.
With these indicators aligning, Bitcoin’s price risks dropping below the $100,000 psychological support.
If bearish momentum strengthens, BTC could extend its decline toward $98,194, marking its lowest level in weeks.
Meanwhile, in the traditional market, Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target, forecasting the metal could reach $4,900 before year-end.
This reflects a growing appetite for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty.
However, the tide could quickly shift. If Bitcoin begins to attract the same kind of institutional liquidity flowing into gold, the cryptocurrency could stage a rebound.
In that bullish scenario, BTC price might rally toward $126,234, reclaiming lost ground and reigniting bullish sentiment across the market.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
