Will Bitcoin Price Drop After Powell's Last FOMC Speech?

Key Takeaways

BTC is holding around $75,000 after the Fed paused rates, but market demand remains weak.
The $80,000 level is key resistance, as a breakout could accelerate toward higher targets.
Thin liquidity makes price moves more volatile and reactive, with direction unclear.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has held the $75,000 level after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, with Jerome Powell expected to deliver what is expected to be his final FOMC speech before stepping down on May 15.

As expected, the shift in monetary policy did not bolster appetite for risk assets. However, markets remain cautious.’

Here is why that happened and what could be next for Bitcoin’s price.

The Fed Holds Rates, BTC Wobbles

At exactly 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve confirmed what markets had already priced in — no rate change.

For weeks, investors had assigned a near 100% probability to a pause. But that headline hid a deeper issue.

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Powell’s Final Speech to Carry the Real Weight?

Meanwhile, at 2:30 PM ET, Powell will step up, and markets will listen differently.

This is not just another press conference. It is likely his last.

As expected, Powell will likely strike a neutral tone, echoing TD Securities’ view that the Fed would remain “patient” and noncommittal given the current environment.

But even neutrality carried meaning. Powell made one thing clear.

The path forward is uncertain. The Fed is balancing:

Persistent inflation driven by energy prices.
Geopolitical risks that cannot be modeled easily.
and an economy that hasn’t clearly slowed.

This explains why the FOMC has now held rates steady across January, March, and April meetings.

In the meantime, what stands out is that Bitcoin spot volume across major exchanges has dried up completely.

Rate Cuts Unlikely for the Remainder of 2026

Besides that, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to pause rates drew four dissents.

Three regional bank presidents opposed retaining an easing bias, while one governor dissented in favor of a rate cut. Notably, this marks the first meeting with four dissents since 1992.

As a result, expectations have shifted. The Fed is no longer widely anticipated to cut interest rates in 2026 following today’s decision.

Moreover, market sentiment reflects this change. On Polymarket, the probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 has risen to 59%, reinforcing a more hawkish outlook for the remainder of the year.

2026 Fed rate cut chances — Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 Chances | Credit: Polymarket

According to the Glassnode chart below, this is the lowest level we’ve seen since October 2023.

You can see how volume has steadily declined while BTC remains relatively elevated, creating a clear mismatch between participation and price.

This means that there is less real demand supporting the price, so moves become less stable and more reactive.

Moreover, the key part is where this is happening. Bitcoin’s price is currently pushing into that major resistance zone around $80,000.

If volume were expanding here, it would support a breakout toward $100,000.

But with volume collapsing, any breakout attempt is more fragile and prone to rejection or fakeouts.

Bitcoin BTC spot volume price analysis — BTC Spot Volume on Exchanges | Credit: Glassnode

On the flip side, this thin liquidity can work both ways. If buyers step in and push through resistance, the lack of sell-side depth could accelerate the price quickly toward $100,000.

But if sellers defend this zone, the same lack of demand underneath could lead to a fast move back toward $65k.

No Liquidity for Bitcoin Price

Additionally, the Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows where real liquidity is, and it aligns well with the low-volume environment we discussed earlier.

Right now, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $76,000. But the important part is the imbalance around it.

There’s a dense cluster of liquidity below, especially in the $70,000-$72,000 range.

That’s essentially a magnet in a thin market, as BTC price tends to move toward areas where there’s more liquidity to be filled.

Above the price, liquidity is stacked around $$80,000. However, it is thinner and more fragmented compared to what’s sitting below.

This reinforces the idea that the $80,000 zone remains a strong resistance. At the same time, it is not necessarily a breakout zone unless new demand comes in.

In a normal high-volume market condition, the price could grind through these levels more evenly.

Bitcoin BTC price reaction to FOMC Interest rate Fed — BTC Liquidation Levels | Credit: Coinglass

But with spot volume this low, the market is more likely to hunt for liquidity.

This means if BTC fails to hold above $75,000, it could quickly sweep down into those dense clusters around $70,000.

On the flip side, if buyers manage to push through $80,000, there’s less overhead liquidity, so Bitcoin’s price could move faster toward $88,000.

BTC Price Reacts: What Next?

On the technical side, Bitcoin’s price is compressing into a triangle right under the 0.236 level ($76,000), which makes this a pretty decisive spot.

The broader structure is still a pullback from the highs, but price has already reclaimed from the $60,000 region and is now pushing into that first major resistance band.

The triangle you drew shows volatility tightening, and that usually leads to expansion. So, this is more about when it breaks than if.

The key thing here is positioning relative to the fibs. If BTC can break and hold above $76,000, that opens the path toward $85,000 (0.382) pretty quickly.

From there, you’re looking at a continuation move back into the $93k–$100k range. That would basically confirm this was just a corrective structure resolving higher.

If it rejects here, though, it’s still technically a lower high inside a broader pullback. In that case, I’d expect a move back toward $70k, with $65,000 being the stronger support below.

Bitcoin price analysis Fed interest rate FOMC — BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

Holders’ sentiment is turning positive again, which supports the idea that this is accumulation rather than distribution, but it still needs price confirmation at this resistance level.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Holds $75K as Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged Ahead of Powell’s Final FOMC Speech