Bitcoin Price to $250k in 18 Months? Tim Draper Makes a Bold Call Again But Has He Been Right Before?
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is undergoing a mid-cycle reset as rising losses flush out weak hands.
Supply in loss is stabilizing, and leverage has cooled, signaling a healthier market.
Rising volatility expectations suggest a significant price move is approaching.
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a pivotal moment. The market feels uncertain, sentiment is mixed, and price action has slowed.
Yet beneath the surface, something important is happening.
The data suggests this is not a breakdown. It is a reset.
And historically, resets like this often come right before major moves.
To understand where Bitcoin’S PRICE could go next, we need to look at what investors are doing, how much pain the market is absorbing, and whether speculation is rising or fading.
The latest on-chain and derivatives data offer a clear story.
Bitcoin Holders Continue to Hold Losses
The first signal comes from realized losses, according to Glassnode data. These have started to rise sharply again, especially among short-term holders.
This is important because short-term holders are typically the most reactive participants. They tend to buy late and sell early.
When they begin to realize losses in size, it often signals that weaker hands are being flushed out of the market.
We have seen this before. Similar spikes appeared during the 2022 bear market and again during the early 2023 bottoming phase. In both cases, those spikes marked moments of stress, but also transition.
However, the current situation carries a subtle difference. Bitcoin’s price is still trading at relatively elevated levels compared to those in earlier periods.
This tells us that while investors are taking losses, the market is not collapsing under the pressure.
That distinction matters. It suggests the underlying demand is still present. As such, BTC might escape another notable correction soon.
What Else Is Happening?
The second chart reinforces this view. Total supply in loss recently surged toward the upper end of its historical range before stabilizing.
This means a large portion of the market is now underwater, particularly those who entered during recent highs.
In past cycles, a rapid increase in supply loss often triggered deeper drawdowns.
But this time, the metric is no longer accelerating upward. It is flattening and showing early signs of cooling.
This shift indicates that selling pressure is being digested rather than amplified.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s price appears to be finding balance in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. This zone is becoming a psychological anchor for the market.
Buyers are stepping in consistently, while sellers seem less aggressive than before. As a result, the price is compressing rather than trending sharply lower.
This kind of behavior typically reflects consolidation rather than distribution.
BTC Price Fails to Benefit From Low Leverage
The third signal comes from the derivatives market. The perpetual futures directional premium shows that speculative positioning has cooled significantly.
Earlier in the cycle, elevated premiums indicated aggressive long positioning, which often made the market fragile and prone to sharp corrections.
That excess has now been largely flushed out.
The premium has returned closer to neutral levels, meaning traders are no longer excessively leaning in one direction. This reduces the risk of cascading liquidations and creates a more stable foundation for future price movement.
In simple terms, the market is less crowded and less vulnerable.
The one-week volatility risk premium has recently shifted, with implied volatility moving above realized volatility. This suggests that traders expect larger price swings ahead.
Such transitions are rarely random.
When volatility expectations rise after a period of deleveraging and loss realization, it often signals that the market is preparing for expansion.
Importantly, this does not guarantee direction. However, when combined with the cooling leverage and stabilizing supply in loss, it tends to lean toward constructive outcomes.
In other words, uncertainty is increasing, but so is potential
What to Expect From Bitcoin Price
When we connect all these signals, a clear narrative emerges. The market is going through a mid-cycle reset. Losses are rising, but they are being absorbed.
Supply in loss is elevated, but no longer accelerating. Leverage has been reduced, removing excess risk.
At the same time, volatility expectations are rising, suggesting a significant move is approaching.
This combination is not typical of market tops or deep bear phases. Instead, it aligns more closely with transitional periods that precede strong directional moves.
The key question now is direction.
If Bitcoin continues to hold its current range and supply in loss begins to decline, the foundation for a renewed uptrend strengthens.
In that scenario, the market could regain momentum, push back toward previous highs, and potentially return to price discovery.
On the other hand, if losses continue to rise and supply in loss expands further, the market may need more time to consolidate.
A deeper pullback would then become possible, likely revisiting lower support zones before stabilizing.
For now, the balance of evidence suggests resilience.
No Clear Direction Still
Bitcoin is not showing signs of euphoria, but it is also far from panic. Instead, it is navigating a phase that often feels uncomfortable but serves an important purpose.
It resets expectations, clears out excess speculation, and redistributes supply into stronger hands.
These phases rarely attract attention. They are quieter, slower, and often filled with doubt. Yet, historically, they have been among the most important moments in the cycle.
Because they set the stage for what comes next.
Right now, the data point to a market healing rather than breaking. Sellers are active, but weakening.
However, BTC buyers are present, quietly absorbing pressure. Leverage has been reduced, and volatility is beginning to build.
And when all of these forces align, the result is usually not stagnation.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
