By last December, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price had dropped below $100 after it had exploded from $60,000 two months earlier.
Over the past month, the coin has struggled to maintain its momentum, with Bitcoin short-term holders signaling a lack of confidence by taking profits.
Even when Bitcoin’s price dropped below their on-chain cost basis, many still exited at a loss, highlighting weak conviction among this group. However, it appears that things are slowly changing, with the value of realized losses falling.
Historically, this signals that BTC could be in line for a rebound. But will it be the same this time?
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin short-term holders had a high level of realized losses in February. When this happens, BTC’s price finds it challenging to register gains.
So, it was unsurprising that the cryptocurrency’s value plunged from $98,635 on Feb. 21 to $78,880 on March 10. However, this capitulation phase appears to be nearing its end, as realized losses have plummeted to just one-tenth of their level from a month ago.
Amid this decline, Bitcoin’s price has surged past $85,000, indicating that the earlier correction may have marked its local bottom.
While this suggests potential bullish momentum, analysts suggest that key price levels will determine whether BTC sees a sustained rebound.
Axel Adler Jr. highlights three crucial resistance levels: the realized price, the 111-day SMA, and the 3-to-6-month short-term holder realized price.
“Currently, the key resistance levels for Bitcoin are as follows: $95,000 (the 111-day Simple Moving Average), $90,000 (the Short-Term Holders’ Realized Price), and the $89,000 range (the 3–6-month Short-Term Holders’ Realized Price). Breaking through these levels would likely confirm the strength of the current bullish trend,” Alder stated in a post on X.
In line with the analyst’s position, the Global In/Out of Money (GIOM) also agrees with the resistance points.
The GIOM group clusters based on their purchase price, helping to identify key support and resistance levels. Larger clusters indicate stronger support or resistance. When most addresses are holding at a loss, selling pressure increases as they seek to break even, creating resistance.
On the other hand, a large volume in profits highlights crucial support zones, where many addresses or tokens were bought at lower prices and are now in profit, reducing the likelihood of selling pressure.
As seen above, the major resistance for BTC lies between $89,040 and $106,839. This value is still within the range Adler highlighted.
If Bitcoin experiences a surge in buying pressure, it could break through these resistance zones and rally close to its all-time high. However, if demand remains weak, BTC could struggle to stay above $89,000, potentially facing further consolidation or a pullback.
BTC Price Analysis: Next Move Revealed
From a technical perspective, CCN noticed that Bitcoin’s price now trades within an ascending channel. It has also broken the $82,086 support near the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
In addition, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has flipped from a negative reading to a positive one. The rise in the AO reading indicates bullish momentum, which could help BTC prevent another drawdown.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price might climb to $92,503 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. If buying pressure increases, the cryptocurrency’s value might soar to $98,947.
Alternatively, if Bitcoin short-term holders return to realizing losses, this forecast might not pass. In that case, BTC’s price might drop to $74,670.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
