XLM continues to struggle, likely to experience a mild recovery soon | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
XLM has dropped ~10% and is now consolidating near $0.16, with momentum weakening
Key support at $0.15 remains critical, as holding it keeps recovery potential intact
Bearish pressure is fading, but without reclaiming $0.17, upside remains limited.
After briefly showing signs of strength earlier this month, Stellar (XLM) has now slipped roughly 10% in the past seven days.
As a result, the altcoin has lost its bullish momentum, drifting back toward the $0.16 zone.
However, a critical support zone is still holding, setting up what could be a decisive move next.
Market Awaits Clear Direction
At the time of writing, XLM is attempting to stabilize after pulling back from its recent high near $0.18, with the price now consolidating around $0.16.
Importantly, the altcoin continues to hold above a key support zone near $0.15—a level that has repeatedly attracted demand.
On the 4-hour chart, the XLM price action shows sellers remain active.
However, downside momentum appears to be losing force.
After a prolonged corrective move, XLM is beginning to print smaller bearish candles, often an early sign that selling pressure is weakening.
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Moreover, the broader structure remains constructively aligned as long as support remains intact.
The earlier breakout impulse from the $0.15 region has not been fully invalidated, suggesting this may be a correction within a larger recovery trend rather than a full trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in bearish territory, reflecting lingering downside pressure.
The histogram bars are beginning to flatten, suggesting selling momentum may be slowing.
If this develops into a bullish crossover, it could support a rebound scenario.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 39, also shows weak momentum but hints at possible stabilization.
The indicator is attempting to rise from near-oversold levels, which could signal dip accumulation.
Even so, momentum remains below neutral, showing bulls have not regained control. However, downside risks remain.
If XLM’s price breaks the $0.16 support band, bearish pressure could accelerate, exposing lower levels.
Therefore, this zone remains pivotal for the next directional move.
TVL Stability Masks Weakness
On-chain data paints a more cautious picture for Stellar as April comes to a close.
Data from DefiLlama shows Total Value Locked (TVL) at $194.8 million, slipping about 0.88% as momentum cools after earlier gains.
This suggests that while capital remains in the ecosystem, fresh inflows have started to slow.
At the same time, XLM is trading near $0.16, roughly 16.6% below its Q1 levels. The gap between price and network activity points to divergence rather than alignment.
For now, the month looks set to close with mild downside pressure, indicating that consolidation may be taking over from expansion.
Unless fresh inflows return, Stellar’s price risks entering a sideways phase despite its earlier DeFi growth.
XLM Price Analysis: Bearish Momentum Fading
On the daily chart, XLM has started showing signs of fatigue on the downside, trading near $0.16 as price action tightens.
The broader trend remains bearish, reinforced by the descending trendline, yet recent candles suggest sellers are gradually losing control.
More importantly, XLM’s price continues to defend the $0.14 support, a level that previously triggered a sharp rebound. This base is holding the structure together for now.
However, the upside remains constrained, with the 20-day Moving Average Exponential (EMA) at $0.17 acting as a ceiling.
Until bulls reclaim this level, any recovery attempt risks fading quickly.
At the same time, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator stays slightly negative, confirming that sellers still have the upper hand.
Even so, the weakening histogram signals that bearish pressure is no longer aggressive.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
