Stellar Price Prediction 2025: XLM Could Break Past $1 This Year

Key Takeaways

• XLM is one of the longer-standing cryptos, founded in 2014.
• The Stellar blockchain was a hard fork from Ripple and was co-founded by XRP creator Jed McCaleb.
• XLM shot up in late 2024.
• Our Stellar price prediction says the coin can reach $1.20 this year.

For most of 2024, XLM largely hovered at around $0.10. However, in November, the market moved up as a result of Donald Trump’s re-election as U.S. President, and Stellar’s coin went up with it.

Things got even better in early December as XLM shot up to above $0.50, its highest price since the bull market of 2021.

Although Stellar dropped after that, there was something of a recovery at the start of 2025 and, on Jan. 3, XLM was worth about $0.4475.

Let’s take a look at our Stellar price prediction, made on Jan. 3, 2025. We will also examine Stellar’s price history and talk a little about what it is and does.

Stellar Price Prediction

Let’s examine the XLM price predictions made by CCN on Jan. 3, 2025.

Stellar Price Prediction 2025

In 2025, XLM is expected to benefit from its current bullish momentum and the completion of its impulsive wave structure. However, price growth may be limited by macroeconomic uncertainty and resistance levels around $0.65, with a potential for significant upside, if adoption or partnerships increase.

Stellar Price Prediction 2026

By 2026, continued growth in blockchain adoption and Stellar’s role in cross-border payments could push XLM higher. If market sentiment remains positive, it could exceed $1, though downside risks from regulatory challenges or market corrections may keep it above $0.50.

Stellar Price Prediction 2030

For 2030, XLM’s price could see exponential growth driven by the widespread adoption of decentralized finance and blockchain technologies. The max price of $3.00 reflects the potential for Stellar to become a leading player in the financial sector, while risks of stagnation or competition may keep the price above $0.80 at a minimum.

Stellar Price Analysis

The four-hour XLM chart shows a breakout from a descending wedge, signaling a bullish reversal. The price surged from $0.32 to $0.45 by Jan. 1, but has stalled below the key resistance at $0.45. This move followed an RSI recovery from oversold to overbought levels, reflecting increased buying pressure.

Elliott Wave analysis suggests the completion of a corrective ABCDE pattern by Dec. 20, with a new impulsive wave potentially starting. Sustained momentum and a close above $0.45 could confirm further upside, while rejection may lead to a retest of $0.40.

Short-term Stellar Price Prediction

The hourly chart highlights a Fibonacci retracement and extension setup, aligning with a five-wave impulse since Dec. 20. XLM’s next key resistance is at $0.47676, with potential extensions to $0.513 and $0.54.

Wave four may retest support at $0.44 or $0.417 before the final wave five rally.

RSI shows strong momentum, but suggests a possible short-term pullback. A drop below $0.40 could lead to deeper retracements toward $0.38 or $0.343. The Stellar price prediction for the next 24 hours hinges on whether or not the pullback happens.

Stellar Average True Range (ATR): XLM Volatility

The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values:

1. the current high minus the current low;
2. the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close;
3. the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days.

A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility.

Since ATR values can be higher for higher-priced assets, normalize ATR by dividing it by the asset price to compare volatility across different price levels. On Jan. 3, 2025, Stellar’s ATR was 0.0452, suggesting comparatively high volatility.

Stellar Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is XLM Overbought or Oversold?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Movements above 70 and below 30 show over and undervaluation, respectively. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish.

On Jan. 3, 2025, the Stellar RSI was 60, indicating bullish conditions.

Stellar Market Cap to TVL Ratio

The Total Value Locked (TVL) to market cap ratio (TVL ratio) measures the valuation of a decentralized finance (DeFi) project by comparing its market capitalization to the total value of assets locked in its smart contracts. This ratio shows the project’s utilization and links the platform’s health to locked asset value.

A ratio above 1.0 indicates overvaluation because the market cap exceeds the value of assets used in the platform. A ratio below 1.0 indicates undervaluation because the market cap is lower than the value of locked assets.

On Jan. 3, 2025, the Stellar TVL ratio was 250, suggesting severe overvaluation.

CCN Strength Index

The CCN Strength Index combines an array of advanced market signals to quantify the strength of individual cryptocurrencies over a recent 30-day period.

Every day, it assigns a strength score, ranging from 0 to 100, to the top 500 assets by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap, focusing on both trend direction and the intensity of price movements.

• 0 to 24: Assets exhibit significant weakness, showing signs of sustained downtrend behavior.
• 25 to 35: The price tends to move within stable bounds with minimal volatility.
• 36 to 49: Assets begin a stable uptrend but without strong surges.
• 50 to 59: Consistent growth with moderate price advances, building momentum.
• 60+: Sharp price movements and high demand indicate stronger volatility and trend shifts.

The index dynamically adapts to rapid changes. For example, an asset experiencing a 100% increase within a short timeframe would see a sharp jump in its score to reflect the intensity of the rise.

However, should that asset stabilize at this new price level, the score will gradually taper down and align with the dampened momentum as the movement normalizes. The same principle applies to rapid declines: a sudden drop will spike the score downward, but as volatility decreases, the score will slowly adjust back up.

On Jan. 3, 2025, Stellar scored 45.2 on the CCN Index, suggesting moderate momentum.

Stellar Price Performance Comparisons

Best Times To Buy Stellar

We looked at the Stellar price history and found the best times to buy XLM.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Stellar

CCN’s Senior Research Analyst, Toghrul Aliyev, looked at Stellar and found the following advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages of Stellar

• Low Transaction Costs : Stellar’s average transaction cost is about 4,000-5,000 stroops, or 0.0004-0.0005 XLM, which is a fraction of a cent. To put it in perspective, it takes more than 20,000 transactions to spend just $1.

• Fast Transaction Speed: Stellar’s transactions are fast, averaging 5.19 seconds per transaction.
• Efficient Cross-Border and Cross-Exchange Transactions: Stellar excels in international payments and transfers between exchanges due to its fast transaction speed, low costs, and relatively stable price throughout the day. Users can move funds quickly and inexpensively, minimizing the risk of losing value during transactions.
• Real-world Asset Tokenization: Stellar’s network has more than $400 billion in commodities  and US Treasuries tokenized, making it the second largest in the world after Ethereum.
• Safety Advantage: Stellar prioritizes safety to ensure transaction integrity. Stellar reduces the likelihood of conflicting transactions and double-spending attacks by requiring consensus from trusted nodes.

Disadvantages of Stellar

• Competition: Stellar faces strong competition from other blockchain networks and payment systems, such as Ripple. This can affect its market position.
• Large Holdings by SDF: As of June 2024, the Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) holds 20,592,611,381 XLM , which accounts for 70% of the circulating supply and 41% of the total supply. The significant concentration of ownership poses a risk, as any large-scale movement or sale of these tokens by SDF could influence the market price and create volatility.
• Low Developer Activity : Stellar has relatively low developer activity, with only 500 weekly commits, ranking 42nd overall. It ranks 68th in sub-ecosystems with 12 sub-ecosystems, 46th in repositories with about 2000 repos, and 41st in weekly active developers with 92 developers . This low level of developer engagement can impact the network’s growth and innovation.
• Centralization : The structure of quorum slices in Stellar creates centralization. Each node selects a set of trusted nodes, forming its quorum slice, in order to agree on transactions. Many nodes often choose the same few trusted entities, such as those controlled by the Stellar Development Foundation. The concentration of trust can, meanwhile, lead to network centralization and vulnerability, where the failure or compromise of these key nodes could halt the entire network.
• Reliance on Trusted Nodes: Stellar’s increased safety relies heavily on the assumption that trusted nodes will not fail or act maliciously. While the network is safer from certain attacks, it remains vulnerable to centralization issues if these assumptions do not hold.
• Liveness: Prioritizing safety over liveness can halt the network if specific nodes fail or are compromised. This trade-off can, therefore, cause significant downtimes.
• Limited Validator Participation: The network only has 60 full validators . Not all asset issuers and exchanges run public validators, leading to potential discrepancies in consensus.

Stellar Price History

Let’s now take a look at some of the key dates in the Stellar price history . While past performance should never be taken as an indicator of future results, knowing what the coin has done can help give us some very useful context when it comes to either making or interpreting a Stellar price prediction.

Stellar Market Cap

The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of XLM in circulation multiplied by its price.

On Jan. 3 2025, Stellar’s market cap was about $13.56 billion, making it the 14th-largest crypto by that metric.

Stellar Supply and Distribution Fact Box

From the Stellar Whitepaper

In its technical documentation or whitepaper , Stellar says it aims to fix the problem of closed financial systems. 

It says: “We need a worldwide financial network open to anyone so that new organizations can join and extend financial access to unserved communities. The challenge for such a network is ensuring participants record transactions correctly.” 

“With a low barrier to entry, users won’t trust providers to police themselves. With worldwide reach, providers won’t all trust a single entity to operate the network.” 

“A compelling alternative is a decentralized system in which participants together ensure integrity by agreeing on the validity of one another’s transactions. Such agreement hinges on a mechanism for worldwide consensus.”

What Is Stellar?

The Stellar blockchain is designed to make transactions quicker and cheaper.  Crypto entrepreneur Jed McCaleb, better known for his involvement in Ripple’s XRP cryptocurrency, and lawyer Joyce Kim founded it. 

The system, which is a spin-off from Ripple, allows people to easily transfer assets, including but not limited to fiat currency, into crypto. 

Stellar is supported by its native token, properly called Stellar Lumens, but often just referred to as either Stellar or by its ticker handle, XLM. 

How Stellar Works

Stellar uses a platform called Stellar Core, which is based on a technology called Horizon 2.0. Stellar has three kinds of network operators or nodes. 

Full Validators submit transactions, validate transactions, and publish history. Basic Validators submit and validate transactions, while Archivers can submit transactions and publish history.

XLM allows one to pay for transactions on the network and is also used to reward node operators. Holders can create their own new tokens, which can be bought, sold, and traded on exchanges.

Is Stellar a Good Investment?

Stellar is one of crypto’s medium-sized institutions and has been a fixture of the second tier for a long time. 

XLM has performed well over the last couple of months or so, but prior to that, it was pretty weak. We still don’t know if it can keep going up or crash back down. 

That said, Stellar has a strong base of developers and investors, and updates and improvements to the platform occur constantly.

As always with crypto, you should do your research before deciding whether or not to invest in XLM.

Will Stellar go up or down?

No one can tell right now. While the Stellar crypto price predictions are largely positive, price predictions have a well-earned reputation for being wrong. Keep in mind that prices can and do go down and up. 

Should I invest in Stellar?

Before deciding whether to invest in Stellar, you will have to research XLM and other similar coins and tokens, such as Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL). Either way, you must also ensure you never invest more money than you can afford to lose.

Technical analysis by Nikola Lazic.

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