XRP, Solana ETFs Have 95% Chance of SEC Approval This Year, Experts Say

Key Takeaways

• ETFs for Litecoin, Solana, and XRP lead the approval race with 95% odds.
• The SEC has officially acknowledged all related filings, with final deadlines between October and December.
• Big-name issuers like Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares are driving momentum with multiple filings.

Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas are projecting a breakthrough year for crypto in 2025 as optimism swells around the approval of multiple spot cryptocurrency ETFs.

Backed by a surge in institutional filings and growing regulatory engagement, several leading digital assets are emerging as frontrunners in what could become a landmark wave of crypto-based financial products.

High Confidence for Major Tokens in 2025

A wave of optimism surrounds the approval of several spot crypto ETFs in 2025, with top digital assets like Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) leading the charge.

These coins—along with Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX)—have seen significant institutional interest, with multiple firms, including Grayscale, Canary, 21Shares, and Bitwise, filing for S-1s.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged all 19b-4 filings for these assets, with deadlines stretching from October to December 2025.

Given their perceived alignment with commodity standards and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures trading, analysts estimate 90–95% odds of approval for these top-tier tokens.

In particular:

• Litecoin, Solana, and XRP have the highest odds at 95%, with strong support from multiple issuers and SEC recognition.
• DOGE, ADA, DOT, HBAR, and AVAX trail slightly at 90%, still well within strong approval territory.

Uncertainty Looms for SUI, TRX and Pengu

While the top tokens enjoy bullish outlooks, newer or more controversial assets face hurdles.

SUI, backed only by Canary, shows 60% odds and lacks precise SEC commodity classification or CFTC-regulated futures.

Tron (TRX) and Pengu are even more tenuous. Both are at 50% odds, with no futures regulation and questions around SEC commodity status.

Importantly, Tron and Pengu are not expected to reach a final SEC decision until 2026, placing them on a longer regulatory path.

SEC To Rule on Grayscale’s Multiple Proposals

The first step on the horizon is the SEC’s July 2 deadline to rule on Grayscale’s request to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) into a spot ETF.

The GDLC fund holds five significant crypto assets—primarily Bitcoin (80.8%), followed by Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana, and Cardano—with $762 million in AUM as of June 27.

On Monday, the SEC acknowledged Grayscale‘s revised S-3 filing, signaling continued engagement.

According to ETF Store President Nate Geraci , the amendment shows regulatory momentum.

If approved, GDLC could set the stage for future single-asset ETFs tied to XRP, Solana, Cardano, and more.