Is Avalanche (AVAX) Price Headed to an Imminent Breakdown?

Key Takeaways

Avalanche has a significant spike in active addresses this year.
The AVAX price trades inside an essential support level at $15.
Can AVAX bounce, or will it break down to single-digit lows?

AVAX has underperformed in the current market cycle, failing to approach its all-time high of $148.18.

A significant rally occurred in April and May, boosted by a surge in active addresses.

However, last week’s downturn has negated most of the previous gains, and AVAX risks a breakdown at a key horizontal support level.

Avalanche Network Activity

Avalanche had a significant spike in network activity this year, coinciding with a similar price increase in May.

In an interview with CCN, Messari Avalanche analyst Matthew Nay outlined some of the reasons for this increase in activity.

The big jumps recently have been from the meme coins launching natively on the C-Chain and from a couple of other L1s – Lamina1 and QChain.

Nay said that for the AVAX price to reflect this increase, the C-Chain must contain these addresses, which did not happen in June.

The number of active addresses fell significantly after the spike in May.

AVAX Active Addresses — Avalanche Addresses | Credit: Messari

Nay explained that gaming is the most significant growth driver among the three categories of decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, and real-world assets (RWA).

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AVAX Returns to Support

The AVAX price bounced in April and reached a high of $26.84 in May, aligning with the spike in active addresses.

However, the price failed to sustain its increase and lost nearly all its gains from the bounce.

More importantly, the price of AVAX trades close to the $15.50 horizontal support area. A breakdown below could cause another 50% price decrease to the next support at $10.50.

AVAX Pattern — AVAX/USDT 3-Day Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are falling.

Furthermore, the wave count is bearish. The April 7 bounce is a three-wave A-B-C structure, a sign of a long-term bearish trend.

Therefore, the long-term AVAX price prediction is bearish, suggesting a breakdown toward $10.50 is inevitable.

While short-term bounces could occur, a breakout from the descending resistance trend line is unlikely.

AVAX Price Risks Breakdown

Avalanche active addresses surged in Q1 driven by new meme coin launches.

The AVAX price analysis is bearish, suggesting a breakdown below $15 is likely.

If that happens, the Avalanche price could fall to $10.50.

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About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

[email protected]

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About the Author

Ryan James

Ryan is the Managing Editor at CCN, specializing in the crypto markets with a strong focus on technical and on-chain analysis across a broad spectrum of digital assets. His areas of expertise include Layer-1 and Layer-2 solutions, artificial intelligence (AI), real-world assets (RWA), decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), meme coins, and altcoins.
Before his current role, Ryan worked as a managing editor for BeinCrypto, while also contributing to Blockchain.com as a customer success associate, where he played a pivotal role in launching the company's margin trading product. He also has extensive experience in the financial sector, having served as a sales manager for foreign exchange brokerages such as Tradeview Markets and IronFX.
Ryan holds a bachelor's degree in Marketing and an honors degree in Business from the University of South Africa.

[email protected]

Avalanche (AVAX) Price Risks Breakdown Despite Surge in Active Addresses

Avalanche Network Activity

AVAX Returns to Support

AVAX Price Risks Breakdown

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