CIO
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has argued that holding no Bitcoin is now a portfolio mistake, as he backed the asset to return to $100,000 this year and eventually climb above $1 million.
In a new CoinDesk Markets Outlook interview, Hougan said traditional investors were too exposed to fiat-denominated assets and should consider replacing part of their bond allocation with Bitcoin.
The crypto executive argued that to benefit from either economic outcome, investors should own both AI stocks and Bitcoin.
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Hougan said a traditional 60/40 portfolio is effectively a 100% bet on fiat currency.
He said investors were reducing their exposure to long-term bonds. Some were moving into short-term Treasurys and adding crypto instead.
That could turn a 60/40 portfolio into a 60/35/5 split, he suggested.
“I think having 0% in Bitcoin at this point is a misallocation and puts you at risk in the future,” Hougan said.
He went further during a separate Forward Guidance appearance.
Hougan claimed that allocations of between 2% and 5% had become the norm among wealth managers, with some moving as high as 10%.
He said the 1% allocation, once commonly proposed as protection against Bitcoin going to zero, had largely disappeared from discussions.
Bitwise’s own historical research has argued that introducing a modest Bitcoin position while shortening bond duration could have improved returns.
Hougan framed the investment choice around Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s argument that AI-led productivity can help the US economy outgrow its debt burden.
“If Bessent is right and we grow our way out, you want to be long AI stocks,” Hougan wrote on X.
“If Bessent is wrong and we inflate our way out, you want to be long bitcoin. If you want to win in either scenario, own both.”
The Bitwise CIO argued that if productivity growth falls short, policymakers may have little choice but to tolerate higher inflation and further currency debasement.
Bitcoin advocates believe this scenario would benefit a scarce asset with a fixed supply.
He also credited recent Treasury action with helping turn crypto sentiment from “despair to euphoria.”
On Aug. 19, the Treasury announced that it would at least double the maximum size of buybacks to support liquidity in longer-dated government bonds, beginning Sept. 9.
Hougan said the move gave crypto investors an excuse to return after weeks of improving news around tokenization and real-world assets.
While he expects Bitcoin to digest its recent rally in the short term, he said another positive macro development could ignite a second leg higher.
The Bitwise executive said conditions were “extremely bullish,” pointing to signs that crypto had formed a bottom just as Wall Street investors returned from their August break.
“I think we have a good chance to get back up to $100K this year,” he said.
Hougan was even more confident about Bitwise’s long-range forecast.
“I think $1.3 million by 2035 is going to be relatively easy for Bitcoin.”
Bitcoin was trading near $79,900 at the time of writing, meaning it would need to gain roughly 25% to reach Hougan’s short-term target.
Based on its price at the time of writing, Bitcoin would have to rise about 16-fold to reach $1.3 million.
For comparison, ARK Invest’s published 2030 model puts Bitcoin at approximately $300,000 in its bear case, $710,000 in its base case, and $1.5 million in its bull case.
ARK explicitly warns that the projections depend on uncertain assumptions about institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s store-of-value role, and other sources of demand.
Hougan joked that even if ARK CEO Cathie Wood’s top forecast came true, the media would declare Bitcoin “dead” after a drop from $1.5 million to $1.4 million.
A swipe at the repeated obituaries that have accompanied previous crashes.
However, BTC remains highly volatile, and neither the return to $100,000 nor the longer-term targets are assured.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
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