Key Takeaways
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has reiterated a long-term case for Bitcoin reaching $1.3 million by 2035, with institutional allocations central to the thesis.
- A 1% allocation from institutions controlling $200 trillion would equal roughly $2 trillion, but Bitwise’s published $1.3 million model depends on much more than that single flow assumption.
- Previous Bitcoin targets from Bitwise, Standard Chartered and others have missed or been sharply revised, showing why decade-long price forecasts should be treated as scenarios rather than endpoints.
Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 as large institutions gradually allocate a fraction of their portfolios to the asset, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, reviving one of the industry’s most aggressive long-term price forecasts.
CoinMarketCap highlighted Hougan’s argument that even a 1% Bitcoin allocation from institutions overseeing as much as $200 trillion could materially alter Bitcoin’s supply-demand balance.
$2 Trillion of Potential Capital
The number is enormous: 1% of $200 trillion equals about $2 trillion of potential capital.
But there is an important qualification. Bitwise’s published $1.3 million target is not simply the result of putting $2 trillion into Bitcoin.
Bitwise’s 2025 long-term capital-market assumptions projected Bitcoin at $1.3 million by 2035, equivalent to a 28.3% compound annual growth rate from the report’s starting point.
The model envisioned institutional allocations eventually reaching 1% to 5% of portfolios.
1% Allocation Alone Does Not Explain $1.3 Million
At $1.3 million per coin, Bitcoin’s fully diluted value across its 21 million maximum supply would be approximately $27.3 trillion.
That is more than 13 times the $2 trillion represented by a 1% allocation of $200 trillion.
This does not mean $27 trillion of fresh cash must literally enter Bitcoin. Market capitalization is determined by the marginal trading price multiplied by outstanding supply, so relatively smaller inflows can produce much larger changes in market value.
Still, it shows why the $1.3 million thesis requires assumptions beyond institutional allocation.
Hougan laid those out more explicitly in March. He estimated that gold and Bitcoin together represented a roughly $38 trillion store-of-value market, with Bitcoin holding less than 4%. If that market expands to around $121 trillion over a decade, Bitcoin would need approximately 17% of it to support a $1 million valuation, according to his model.
The thesis, therefore, depends simultaneously on the store-of-value market expanding, Bitcoin taking a substantial share from competing assets, and institutional adoption continuing.
Bitcoin Forecasts Have a Difficult Track Record
Those assumptions deserve scrutiny because even forecasts made only one year ahead have repeatedly broken down.
Bitwise predicted in December 2024 that Bitcoin would trade above $200,000 during 2025. Bitcoin instead peaked above $126,000 in October before falling toward $89,000 by December. Standard Chartered had also forecast a $200,000 year-end price.
Forecasts have continued to move with market conditions. Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target in March 2026 from $143,000 to $112,000, while setting a recessionary downside case at $58,000. In June, Standard Chartered, once among Wall Street’s most aggressive Bitcoin bulls, was still targeting $100,000 by the end of 2026 after Bitcoin fell back toward $64,000.
Bitcoin is trading around $65,000 on Aug. 10, meaning $1.3 million would require roughly a 20-fold increase from current levels.
That makes Hougan’s forecast less a conventional price target than a long-duration adoption scenario. The decisive variable is not whether institutions can allocate 1%, but whether they actually do so consistently enough over the next decade while Bitcoin simultaneously captures a much larger share of global stored wealth.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
