NYDIG says Bitcoin could fall to $38K-$39K if the current bear market follows historical four-year cycles, citing several factors. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Wintermute says Bitcoin could still fall to $50,000.
Standard Chartered declares ‘Crypto Spring’.
Macro uncertainty continues to weigh on crypto.
Bitcoin’s price could still fall into the $50,000 range despite signs of improving conditions and growing optimism around digital assets, according to crypto market maker Wintermute.
Warning investors against assuming the market has already bottomed, the firm urged them not to confuse improving sentiment with a full market bottom.
The comments come as famed bank Standard Chartered announced that Crypto Spring had arrived, following earlier predictions from figureheads, even as prices continue to falter.
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In a June 15 market update, Wintermute said Bitcoin’s price had rebounded from recent lows near $60,000 to around $65,000, snapping a four-week losing streak.
The firm attributed the slight rebound to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a US inflation reading that met market expectations.
Despite describing longer-term risk-reward levels in the low $60,000s as attractive, Wintermute said it remained possible for Bitcoin’s price to decline further before a more durable recovery takes hold.
“That’s not the same as the bottom being in,” the firm wrote.
Adding: “It’s not ruled out that we trade into the 50s before any of this improves.”
According to Wintermute, investor positioning has largely reset following multiple sharp drawdowns since late 2024, but key sources of crypto liquidity remain weak.
The firm pointed to continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, slowing stablecoin growth, and a sharp decline in Digital Asset Treasury activity as evidence that fresh capital has yet to return to the market.
“The one thing to watch is flows, not price, not headlines,” Wintermute said.
Standard Chartered Says ‘Crypto Spring’ Has Arrived
Wintermute’s caution contrasts with more optimistic forecasts emerging elsewhere in the industry.
In an emailed statement to Forbes on Monday, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said that a new “crypto spring” had begun.
The analyst argued that institutional adoption and supportive regulatory developments were laying the groundwork for the next phase of growth in digital assets.
“I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle,” Kendrick told the publication. “That would be $59,000 for Bitcoin, 53% down from $126,000 high.”
Wintermute Sees Macro Relief
Wintermute attributed the latest rebound to two developments: a US inflation report that matched expectations, and the end of the Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices sharply lower.
The firm said Brent crude had fallen from above $110 per barrel to the high $80s over the past month as the Strait of Hormuz moved toward reopening.
While crypto and equities have all participated in the relief rally, Wintermute said uncertainty remains ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
According to the firm, policymakers face a difficult balancing act between elevated headline inflation and softer core inflation readings.
Wintermute said the Fed’s updated projections and Warsh’s comments could determine market direction through the second half of the year.
What Is Weighing on Bitcoin Price?
A separate analysis by CoinMarketCap highlighted additional headwinds facing Bitcoin, including liquidity concerns.
The data platform said Bitcoin’s price fell roughly 1% over the previous 24 hours to around $65,600, slightly underperforming the wider crypto market.
Analysts attributed much of the weakness to the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates to 1%, its highest level since 1995.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1%. | Source: CCN.
According to CoinMarketCap, higher Japanese rates have revived concerns about the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades.
Any significant strengthening of the yen could trigger further deleveraging in risk assets, including major cryptocurrencies.
The platform also noted that nearly $48 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority of the losses.
Looking ahead, CoinMarketCap said Bitcoin’s ability to hold support around $64,000 could determine near-term direction.
A successful defense of that level could pave the way for a recovery toward the mid-$66,000 range, while a breakdown could leave the market vulnerable to a fall near $60,000.
Other Analysts See Scope For Deeper Bitcoin Decline
Wintermute is not alone in warning that Bitcoin may have further downside ahead.
Several prominent market commentators have also recently argued that Bitcoin could fall well below current levels.
Investor Gary Cardone has repeatedly warned that crypto markets remain vulnerable if new buyers fail to enter.
The investor has previously suggested Bitcoin could revisit levels as low as $38,000 under a more severe downside scenario.
Despite the bearish near-term outlook, Cardone has said he remains a long-term Bitcoin buyer and believes stronger demand could eventually support another recovery phase.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
