The US-Iran conflict is set to impact Bitcoin's price — how? | Source: CCN
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin price fell to nearly $63,000 after U.S.–Iran tensions escalated.
Analysts warn of deeper downside risk.
CCN analysis shows $60,263 remains the key support level to watch.
Bitcoin steadied near $63,000 on Monday after a volatile weekend that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency tumble in the wake of escalating U.S.–Iran tensions, before clawing back some of its losses.
The coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory action across the region rattled global markets, driving investors toward traditional safe havens such as gold and oil while weighing on risk-sensitive assets.
With Bitcoin’s price still down roughly 47% from its peak, analysts are debating whether the pullback marks a cyclical bottom—or if a deeper 60% to 70% drawdown remains possible.
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“Just imagine the reaction from investors and the media if such a correction were to happen again. With only a 47% decline today, some are already claiming that Bitcoin is dead.”
Over time, however, bear market declines have gradually become less severe, he noted.
“If this pattern continues, one could reasonably expect a drawdown in the 60% to 70% range,” Darkfrost said.
A 70% drawdown means Bitcoin would fall 70% from its cycle peak, not from its current price.
If we use the previous peak near $123,000, a 70% drawdown would equate to around $36,900.
Bitget Wallet: Bitcoin Price Acting as High-Beta Risk Asset
Lacie Zhang, Research Analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CCN the latest move underscores Bitcoin’s growing sensitivity to macro liquidity rather than geopolitical hedging.
“The escalation of U.S.–Iran tensions has triggered a classic macro divergence across asset classes,” Zhang said.
“Bitcoin initially dropped toward $63,000 following strike headlines before stabilizing in the mid-$66,000 range, behaving more like a high-beta risk asset alongside equities rather than a geopolitical hedge.”
In contrast, oil and gold rallied sharply as capital rotated into traditional safe havens.
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Zhang described the move as “less ‘geopolitical hedging’ and more liquidity front-running,” with traders reducing exposure ahead of potential policy responses or further escalation.
She added that Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has intensified in the short term, while its relationship with safe-haven flows has weakened.
Over the medium term, she said, renewed liquidity easing stemming from conflict-driven fiscal expansion could support prices.
“If conflict-driven fiscal expansion leads to renewed liquidity easing, Bitcoin could reprice higher as macro conditions stabilize and risk appetite rebuilds.”
CCN’s Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bottom Signals Flash
CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju said Bitcoin’s weekend decline followed a familiar pattern, noting that the asset often absorbs geopolitical shock selling when traditional markets are closed.
“BTC is one of the few large assets tradable on weekends, unlike gold. So, it absorbs geopolitical shock selling when traditional markets are closed,” he wrote.
BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
Olanrewaju said a breakdown below the $60,263 support level could open the door toward $55,000 and potentially the $49,000 macro support zone.
Conversely, a high-volume breakout above the pennant could trigger a short squeeze toward $75,865.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
