Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has returned to its 200-week moving average.
- Analysts remain sharply divided on BTC’s next move.
- The 200-week moving average has historically preceded major recoveries.
Bitcoin has fallen back to its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023, returning to a long-term technical level that has historically marked major turning points in the crypto’s market cycles.
The move has sparked debate among traders, with some viewing the retest as a potential bear-market bottom and others warning that Bitcoin could still face a deeper decline toward $30,000.
Analysts Split on Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin’s price decline, currently trading at around $64,000, has brought it back to a technical level that proved decisive during the last major crypto downturn.
It is once again testing its 200-week simple moving average, a level closely watched by traders after influencing price action during previous bull and bear markets.
With the price hovering around the level once more, X users are divided over whether it will provide a foundation for recovery or signal further weakness.
Famed crypto influencer David Hoffman highlighted the significance of Bitcoin reaching the 200-week moving average, noting the last time it went any lower was in 2022.
“Bitcoin is right on the 200 week moving average,” Hoffman wrote on X.
“The only time BTC went below it was post Terra/3AC/FTX – the worst contagion event in crypto.”
Meanwhile, crypto analyst ColinTCrypto also highlighted the importance of the metric.
“$BTC 200-week moving average tagged! This is one of those key milestones that occurs in every bear market,” he wrote on X.
While acknowledging the difficulty of making short-term predictions, ColinTCrypto suggested Bitcoin could be due for a relief bounce after its recent decline.
“Does it bounce here or keep dropping? My guess is BTC has a decent chance of bouncing soon as it’s been dropping pretty steeply. But honestly it’s anyone’s guess in the short term,” he added.
Others remain significantly more bearish.
X user CryptoCrunch argued that Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests further downside is likely before any meaningful recovery emerges.
“Bitcoin may stabilize for a day or two, but the way it moved today suggests a rapid move toward $50,000,” the analyst wrote.
“That level could hold for several days or weeks before another major decline.”
CryptoCrunch suggested that stronger buying interest may not emerge until around $40,000 and warned it could eventually fall to the low-$30,000 range.
It comes just one day after Peter Schiff argued that Bitcoin’s price could fall below $20,000.
There is way too much complacency in Bitcoin for the market to be anywhere near a bottom,” Schiff wrote on X.
He claimed there would be a “quick fall” below $20,000 when Bitcoin breaks $50,000.”
What Is the 200-Week Moving Average?
The 200-week moving average is one of Bitcoin’s most respected long-term technical indicators.
Calculated by averaging Bitcoin’s closing price over the previous 200 weeks, roughly 1,400 days, the metric filters out short-term volatility and provides a clearer picture of the asset’s underlying trend.
Historically, the indicator has acted as a critical support zone during major bear markets.
Bitcoin has spent relatively little time trading below the 200WMA, and prior tests of the level have often preceded substantial recoveries.
During the 2015 bear market, Bitcoin briefly traded below the indicator before recovering, ultimately culminating in the 2017 rally toward $20,000.
A similar pattern emerged during the 2018-2019 downturn, when Bitcoin found support near the 200WMA around $3,100 before recovering toward $14,000.
The March 2020 COVID-19 market crash produced another brief breakdown below the indicator, with Bitcoin falling to roughly $3,800 before launching a rally that eventually carried the asset above $64,000 in 2021.
The indicator was last heavily tested during the 2022 crypto market slump, after which Bitcoin gradually recovered and went on to establish new record highs.
After bottoming near $15,500 and reclaiming the level, it embarked on a multiyear advance that culminated in record highs during 2025.
In each instance, Bitcoin eventually recovered and went on to set new all-time highs within the following 1 to 2 years.
Will Bitcoin Price Surge or Fall Below $30,000?
The latest test of the 200-week moving average has revived one of the market’s most important questions: Is Bitcoin forming another generational buying opportunity or pausing before deeper losses?
With analysts sharply divided over Bitcoin’s next move, CCN turned to leading AI models to assess the risk of a deeper slide below $30,000.
“Historically, tests of the 200-week moving average have often marked major Bitcoin bottoms, but history doesn’t guarantee the same result this time,” ChatGPT said.
“A bounce from current levels is possible, but investors shouldn’t ignore the risk of further downside if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.”
The AI noted that the key question is whether buyers view the current selloff as a long-term accumulation opportunity.
“If support holds, Bitcoin could eventually begin building a recovery,” it said.
“However, a sustained break below this level would increase the probability of a deeper decline toward lower support zones, including the $30,000-$40,000 range.”
Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok took a more skeptical view of the bullish case.
“People see the 200-week moving average and immediately start calling a bottom,” Grok said.
“Markets don’t work that neatly. Just because a level held before doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to hold again.”
Grok argued that traders may be underestimating the possibility of another capitulation event.
“If fear accelerates and liquidity dries up, Bitcoin falling below $30,000 isn’t some impossible scenario,” it added.
“The market has a habit of inflicting maximum pain before a genuine recovery begins.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
