Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin demand growth has returned to positive territory, with demand at roughly 25,000 BTC, resembling conditions before May’s move toward $82,000.
- Derivatives are increasingly driving the recovery, while analysts warn that spot demand remains too weak to confirm a sustainable rally.
- Bitcoin longs have reached a record 361,000 BTC, worth about $23.4 billion, creating both upside momentum and growing liquidation risk.
Bitcoin is beginning to recreate the market structure that preceded its May rally toward $82,000, but analysts warn that the latest setup is missing one crucial ingredient: strong spot demand.
Bitcoin recently traded between $64,000 and $65,000 after recovering from its late-June lows, with the rebound bringing the sustainability of the latest advance into focus.
Behind that recovery, however, the composition of demand is becoming increasingly important.
CryptoQuant data shared by an analyst shows that Bitcoin‘s 30-day demand growth has returned to positive territory, with demand at approximately 25,000 BTC.
The analyst said the emerging structure resembles the setup that helped BTC climb toward $82,000 in May, but described the current improvement in demand as modest.
Derivatives Are Driving Bitcoin’s Recovery
The concern is that much of the recent improvement appears to be coming from derivatives rather than simultaneous futures and spot buying.
That distinction matters because futures allow traders to amplify exposure through leverage. They can accelerate a rally without requiring equivalent amounts of Bitcoin to be purchased in the spot market, but that positioning can unwind rapidly when prices move against leveraged traders.
The broader structural shift toward derivatives is well established. A recent WisdomTree analysis argued that futures, options, and leverage have become increasingly important for Bitcoin’s short-term price discovery, while a CFTC filing citing Kaiko data said perpetual futures accounted for 68% of Bitcoin trading volume in 2025.
The CryptoQuant analyst’s argument is therefore not that derivatives cannot push BTC higher. May showed they can. Rather, the question is whether spot buyers eventually arrive to support that move.
Without them, another rally could prove considerably less durable.
Adding to the uncertainty, Bitwise portfolio manager Jeff Park highlighted an unusual divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets, noting that Bitcoin implied volatility has fallen to a 2026 low while US bond yields have climbed to a year-to-date high.
Park wrote that the combination “can only end one way,” without initially specifying the direction.
Gold advocate Peter Schiff interpreted the setup much more bearishly. Reposting Park’s comments, Schiff argued that the outcome would be a Bitcoin crash, claiming investors were ignoring the risks building around the market.
Park subsequently pushed back on Schiff’s interpretation rather than endorsing the crash call. The exchange underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s unusually compressed volatility: low implied volatility can precede a significant move, but it does not determine whether that move will be higher or lower.
Combined with the record 361,000 BTC positioned long, weak spot participation, and growing reliance on derivatives, the volatility setup provides another reason to approach the emerging resemblance to May’s $82,000 rally with caution.
A renewed expansion in spot demand would strengthen the bullish comparison, while continued leverage growth without spot confirmation could leave Bitcoin increasingly exposed to a sharp liquidation-driven move.
Record $23.4B Long Positioning Raises Liquidation Risk
The derivatives imbalance is also becoming more extreme.
Crypto analyst Joao Wedson said aggregate Bitcoin long positioning across the exchanges he tracks has reached an all-time high of approximately 361,000 BTC, worth $23.4 billion. Shorts stand at roughly 264,000 BTC, or $17.14 billion.
That translates into an estimated positioning split of 57.62% long versus 42.38% short.
Wedson warned that similar long-side extremes have previously appeared before major liquidation events, including around the FTX collapse, the August 2023 selloff, Bitcoin’s $73,000 pre-halving peak and periods above $100,000.
The signal does not guarantee another selloff. Instead, it shows that leverage has become concentrated on one side, meaning even a relatively modest downside move could trigger forced long liquidations and amplify volatility.
That risk is especially relevant when spot demand is not expanding at the same pace.
Bitcoin Needs Spot Buyers to Make the $82K Setup Stick
The bullish case is straightforward: demand has turned positive, Bitcoin has recovered from its June lows, and derivatives traders are positioning heavily for further upside.
The weakness is the source of that demand.
Retail participation remains weak, even as institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs continues to show relative resilience. Meanwhile, Fidelity Digital Assets has noted that perpetual futures continue to dwarf spot volumes because they provide continuous leveraged exposure without requiring traders to roll expiring contracts.
That leaves Bitcoin with a potentially powerful but fragile setup.
If spot demand accelerates alongside futures positioning, the resemblance to May’s $82,000 rally becomes more convincing. If spot buyers remain absent while leveraged longs continue piling in, the same positioning intended to capture a breakout could instead become fuel for a liquidation-driven reversal.
In other words, 25,000 BTC of positive demand is a start. Where the next wave of demand comes from may matter considerably more.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
