Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today as Japan Bond Market Cracks, US Treasuries Surge?

U.S. Treasury Yields Are Triggering a Global Risk-Off Event

The biggest macro pressure currently crushing Bitcoin’s price is the violent repricing happening inside the US bond market.

As of this writing, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.62%, marking its highest level since mid-2025.

Even more alarming, the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.12% — a level markets last saw before the 2008 financial crisis.

For institutional investors, these yields represent a shift in global capital allocation.

When “risk-free” government bonds suddenly offer returns above 5%, speculative assets like Bitcoin become significantly less attractive in the short term.

US 10-year treasury yield — US 10-Year Treasury Yield | Credit: TradingEconomics

But that’s not all.

According to CCN’s findings, the bond market sell-off was triggered by another wave of hotter-than-expected inflation data.

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Japan’s Bond Market May Be the Biggest Threat of All

While U.S. yields are already creating pressure, we believe the real systemic shockwave is coming from Japan.

At press time, the yield on Japan’s 30-year government bond surged above 4% for the first time since the instrument began trading in 1999.

At the same time, Japan’s 20-year bond yield exploded to levels not seen since 1996 as traders increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its June meeting.

Japan 30-Year LSEG yield — JP30Y Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

This matters enormously for global markets, as well as Bitcoin’s price

For over two decades, Japan’s near-zero interest rate environment encouraged massive overseas investment into global assets — including more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries.

Japan US treasuries Bitcoin — Japan US Sovereign Bonds Chart | Credit: Bloomberg

Now, rising domestic yields are triggering a historic capital repatriation cycle. As a result, Japanese institutions are selling foreign assets, including $29.6 billion in US Treasuries, and bringing money back home.

Like Japan, Chinese holdings of US Treasuries have dropped to the lowest level since the 2008 Financial crisis.

That process is draining global liquidity at the exact moment Bitcoin and crypto markets are already under pressure from rising U.S. yields.

“Warsh Fed” Has Changed Market Expectations

Outside the bond and treasury yield market, the macro pressure intensified further after Kevin Warsh officially became the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve following Senate confirmation.

For context, Warsh has long been viewed as one of Wall Street’s most aggressive inflation hawks. As a result, markets have abandoned expectations for interest rate cuts for the rest of 2026.

Instead, swap markets are now increasingly pricing in the rising probability of another Fed hike. Beyond that, analysts forecast a more aggressive balance-sheet contraction during Warsh’s reign.

This shift is critically important for Bitcoin because tighter monetary policy directly removes liquidity from financial markets.

LTH May Ease the Downward Pressure

Looking at on-chain data, Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply is rising again.

According to CryptoQuant data, LTH supply has climbed back to 15.26 million BTC. This metric last reached these levels in August 2025, while over 316,000 BTC have been added over the past 30 days.

Historically, rising LTH supply has been considered bullish. This is because more coins are being moved into wallets unlikely to sell soon, thereby reducing the market’s liquidity.

Interestingly, this contrasts with late November, when the metric showed a -650,000 BTC decline as long-term holders distributed coins near local highs.

In the meantime, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that the upcoming May 23 milestone is significant as well.

Around 800,000 BTC moved by Coinbase six months ago will officially become classified as long-term held coins.

long-term holder supply impact analyzed — BTC 30-Day LTH Supply Change | Credit: CryptoQuant

If sustained, this could push the metric even higher and attract more attention to LTH dynamics.

Overall, the data suggests that many holders who accumulated BTC during the previous correction are still holding rather than taking profits.

At the same time, this does not imply that Bitcoin’s price will surge past $85,000. But it signifies that selling pressure is easing, and a notable correction in the $60,000 direction might not happen.

BTC Price Analysis: What to Expect

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing signs of short-term weakness after breaking a key support level within an ascending channel on the daily chart below.

At the time of writing, BTC is currently trading around $76,700. This breakdown comes as the MACD confirms a bearish crossover, with momentum shifting in favor of sellers for the first time since the April recovery.

The rejection below the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $78,992 is significant because it invalidates the recent bullish structure that had been building toward the $85,000 resistance zone.

As such, Bitcoin’s price is now approaching the 0.382 Fibonacci support near $74,520. Notably, this is the key level that bulls need to defend.

A sustained move below that zone could open the door for a deeper correction toward $69,000, aligning with the 0.236 retracement.

Despite the recent pullback, the broader structure is not yet fully bearish. Bitcoin remains above the major macro support around $60,000, and the previous rebound from that region still suggests long-term accumulation.

Bitcoin BTC technical analysis — BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

However, in the near term, momentum has weakened, and bulls will need to reclaim the broken channel support quickly to regain control.

If BTC recovers above $79,000 and re-enters the channel, the market could attempt another push toward $83,463 and eventually $89,830.

Bitcoin (BTC) Under Pressure to Slide Under $74K as US 10-Year Yield Surges, Japan Bonds Break 1999 Highs