Key Takeaways
- Strategy claims its 649,870 BTC can fund dividends for 71 years at current prices.
- The S&P 500 rejected Strategy despite meeting eligibility criteria.
- MSCI may remove Strategy from major indices, risking $2.8B–$8.8B in passive outflows.
- Strategy appears on MSCI’s list of 38 digital-asset-treasury companies under review.
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to lean heavily on its massive Bitcoin treasury to support its equity narrative.
But despite claiming extraordinary dividend-funding capacity from its BTC holdings, the company now faces simultaneous pressure from global index providers, including an S&P 500 rejection and a looming decision from MSCI that could force billions in passive outflows.
Strategy’s “71 Years of Dividend Coverage” Claim Comes From Its Own Bitcoin Model
On its official X account, Strategy (@Strategy) published an internal credit-dashboard slide stating:
“At current $BTC levels, we have 71 years of dividend coverage assuming the price stays flat. And any $BTC appreciation beyond 1.41% a year fully offsets our annual dividend obligations.”
According to the company’s data:
- BTC holdings: 649,870 BTC
- Valuation basis: $87,000/BTC
- Total BTC value: $56 billion
- Annual dividend coverage: $700 million
- Total debt obligations: $8.2 billion
The dashboard shows “71 years of dividends” under present Bitcoin price assumptions.
What does the model assume?
The 71-year figure is entirely derived from Strategy’s internal math:
- Bitcoin price remains flat.
- All BTC holdings are available for sale or collateral.
- No external shocks or tax impacts alter liquidation value.
- Convertible-debt timing and coupon structures remain manageable.
- Dividend payout stays constant.
The 1.41% annual BTC appreciation threshold is the company’s stated breakeven rate at which BTC growth alone covers dividends without touching principal.
No Independent Verification
- No auditor or third-party analyst has confirmed the 71-year figure.
- No detailed assumptions were released beyond the dashboard.
- Strategy itself characterizes these as model outcomes, not guarantees.
That said, the raw numbers 650k BTC, tens of billions in value, multi-billion debt – match public data on Strategy’s treasury position.
However, Daniel Muvdi, Head of Markets at Quantfury and founder of Bitfinanzas, expressed sharp skepticism toward Strategy’s “71 years of dividend coverage” claim. In his view, the logic behind funding dividends by selling Bitcoin is fundamentally flawed.
Muvdi argues that any liquidation of BTC would immediately trigger a major sell-off in MSTR, since the market closely tracks the company’s Bitcoin holdings as its core value driver. He questions whether investors would tolerate watching the company “burn Bitcoin” to pay dividends, suggesting such a move would damage confidence and accelerate downside pressure on the stock.
From his perspective, the claim isn’t just unrealistic, it misunderstands how the market values Strategy and reacts to changes in its Bitcoin reserve.
MSCI May Remove Strategy From Major Equity Indices — $8.8 Billion in Outflows Expected
J.P. Morgan warns that Strategy is “at risk of exclusion from major equity indices as the January MSCI decision approaches.”
Research shared by Matthew Sigel (@matthew_sigel) cites JPM estimates:
- $2.8 billion in passive outflows if MSCI removes Strategy alone
- Up to $8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead
This would occur because ETFs and mutual funds that track MSCI indices would be forced to sell MSTR shares to match index changes.
Why MSCI is Reconsidering Strategy
MSCI Inc. (Morgan Stanley Capital International) is reviewing whether to exclude companies whose primary function resembles “digital asset treasury management” – firms where large BTC holdings define valuation more than operating revenue.
Strategy is specifically listed in MSCI’s preliminary review.
MSCI’s Preliminary List Identifies 38 Digital-Asset-Treasury Companies Under Scrutiny
A newly published “Preliminary List of Digital Asset Treasury Companies” from MSCI includes 38 crypto companies that meet the criteria for potential removal under the proposed methodology.
The list includes:
- Strategy A (USA) – Issuer market cap $90,443M; float-adjusted market cap $84,115M
- Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) – $6,426M
- Hut 8 (US) – $3,628M
- Riot Platforms – $6,799M
- Sharplink Gaming – $1,611M
- Metaplanet (Japan) – $2,339M
- Bitcoin Group (Germany) – $229M
- Bitfarms – $612M
- CoinShares International – $1,000M
- Nano Labs – $127M
- DigitalX (Australia) – $60M
- Exodus Movement – $802M
- Many others across the US, Europe, Singapore, Japan, and China.
These companies are being evaluated based on the proportion of corporate valuation tied to digital-asset holdings rather than traditional operating metrics.
This places Strategy in a classification bucket that the MSCI methodology may no longer allow inside mainstream equity benchmarks.
Why Strategy Was Not Added to the S&P 500 — Even Though Robinhood Was
In the September 2025 S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing, the index committee added Robinhood Markets (HOOD), AppLovin (APP), and Emcor Group (EME), but did not add Strategy (MSTR) even though the company met the standard eligibility criteria for market capitalization, trading volume, U.S. incorporation, and positive earnings.
Notably, Strategy increasingly resembles a Bitcoin holding vehicle rather than a traditional software company, and S&P Dow Jones Indices explicitly excludes ETFs and ETF-like structures from the S&P 500 methodology.
Analysts note that Strategy’s valuation is dominated by its 649,870 BTC reserve rather than recurring software revenue, while its stock displays extreme volatility and a high beta, both of which conflict with index-stability requirements.
Furthermore, Strategy’s earnings are heavily influenced by unrealized Bitcoin gains and losses, raising concerns over earnings quality and sustainability. In contrast, Robinhood met the S&P committee’s operational, earnings-quality, and business-model criteria – and Strategy did not.
How Strategy (MSTR) Is Performing Right Now
Strategy’s stock (ticker: MSTR) is currently trading around $177.13, reflecting a sharp 5% single-day decline and continuing a multi-month downtrend that closely mirrors Bitcoin’s drawdown.
Trading volume remains extremely elevated, with more than 27.6 million shares exchanged in the latest session, a level far above its long-term average, signaling heightened volatility and investor uncertainty.
The stock has fallen significantly in recent months:
MSTR is now trading near the bottom of its 52-week range (from roughly $171.48 to $457.22), underscoring how severely sentiment has reversed. Analysts and market observers continue to note the extremely high correlation between MSTR and the price of Bitcoin, with the stock behaving more like a leveraged BTC proxy than a software-sector equity. This means that when Bitcoin weakens, MSTR typically falls faster and harder.
Adding to downward pressure is the growing risk of index exclusion, which has introduced a structural overhang on the stock. Passive funds tied to indices such as MSCI USA and MSCI World hold billions of dollars in MSTR, and any index removal could trigger mechanical forced selling, accelerating declines regardless of Bitcoin’s price.
Taken together, a plunging share price, heightened volatility, heavy trading volume, and looming index-provider decisions, Strategy is currently experiencing one of its most turbulent market periods in years, with both crypto-market weakness and institutional-index risks weighing heavily on investor confidence.
Should You Invest in $MSTR?
Whether $MSTR is an attractive investment depends largely on an investor’s risk tolerance and view of Bitcoin.
The company’s financial profile is uniquely tied to its 649,870 BTC reserve, meaning $MSTR tends to behave more like a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle than a traditional software stock. This structure can amplify gains when Bitcoin rises, but it can also accelerate losses during downturns.
Investors must also weigh index-related risks, including potential MSCI exclusion, S&P 500 rejection, and possible passive outflows of $2.8–$8.8 billion, which could add structural pressure to the share price.
$MSTR may appeal to those seeking long-term Bitcoin exposure through an operating company, but it may not suit investors requiring earnings stability or lower volatility.
Strong BTC Reserve, Weak Index Outlook: Strategy’s Emerging 2025–2026 Dilemma
Strategy claims its 649,870 BTC reserve can fund 71 years of dividends, or indefinitely if Bitcoin grows more than 1.41% annually.
But at the same time, the company is experiencing:
- S&P 500 rejection, despite meeting mechanical criteria
- MSCI scrutiny under a new classification review
- JPMorgan-estimated passive outflow risk of $2.8B–$8.8B
- Inclusion on MSCI’s preliminary list of 38 digital-asset-treasury companies flagged for removal
This puts Strategy at the crossroads of Bitcoin-driven financial strength and index-driven structural vulnerability, a rare combination that could define the company’s market fate in 2025–2026.
FAQs
Because its internal model assumes Bitcoin remains flat and its 649,870 BTC can fully fund annual dividends of $700M and service ~$8.2B in debt. This is not independently verified.
Analysts say Strategy resembles a Bitcoin holding vehicle, not a traditional software firm. S&P excludes ETF-like structures and prioritizes earnings quality, stability, and sector consistency, all areas where Strategy falls short.
ETFs and mutual funds tracking MSCI indices would be forced to sell MSTR. JPMorgan estimates $2.8B in passive outflows, and potentially $8.8B if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead.
MSCI identified firms whose valuations rely heavily on digital-asset holdings rather than operational business metrics. Strategy’s BTC-centric balance sheet places it in this classification risk category.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
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