Will Bitcoin Price Hit $11M by 2036? Joe Burnett Makes the Case, Power Law Inventor Disagrees

Could Bitcoin reach $11 million per coin by 2036?

That’s the bold projection from Joe Burnett, a longtime Bitcoin analyst, who argues that the interaction between artificial intelligence (AI), monetary policy, and digital scarcity could drive Bitcoin to eight-figure territory within a decade.

Not everyone agrees. Giovanni Santostasi, the creator of Bitcoin’s popular “power law” price model, says the math points to a price closer to $2 million, not $11 million.

The debate highlights two very different ways of thinking about Bitcoin’s future: one rooted in macroeconomic shifts, the other grounded in statistical modeling.

Joe Burnett’s $11 Million Bitcoin Prediction Explained

Burnett’s argument begins with a simple claim: AI will create powerful deflationary pressure across the global economy.

As artificial intelligence automates white-collar jobs, compresses corporate margins, and lowers production costs, prices for many goods and services could fall. Historically, major productivity shocks, like electrification or the automobile, have disrupted labor markets and slashed costs.

But in today’s debt-heavy system, deflation is dangerous. When wages and asset prices fall, but debts remain fixed, defaults rise and credit markets strain.

Burnett argues policymakers will respond the only way they know how: by expanding liquidity.

Lower interest rates. Larger central bank balance sheets. More fiscal stimulus.

In his framework, the future equilibrium looks like this: persistent productivity deflation plus persistent monetary expansion. And when liquidity expands, it needs a destination.

Burnett believes Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, is the prime candidate.

At $11 million per coin, Bitcoin’s market value would reach roughly $230 trillion. If global financial assets grow from about $1 quadrillion today to nearly $2 quadrillion by 2036 (assuming 7% annual growth), Bitcoin would represent around 12% of global financial assets.

In his view, Bitcoin doesn’t need to replace fiat currency. It simply needs to become the dominant long-term savings asset in a world where the money supply keeps expanding.

AI, Monetary Expansion and Bitcoin Scarcity Roles

Burnett also points to the rise of “Digital Credit”, financial products backed by large Bitcoin reserves.

These structures allow companies to issue dollar-denominated income securities backed by Bitcoin holdings. Investors seeking yield buy the credit. The issuer uses proceeds to buy more Bitcoin.

The loop looks like this: yield demand to credit issuance to dollars raised to Bitcoin purchased to stronger collateral to more issuance.

If global credit markets, measured in the hundreds of trillions, begin allocating even modest percentages to Bitcoin-backed instruments, structural demand could far exceed those of previous cycles, driven mainly by retail speculation.

Bitcoin Power Law Model Predicts $2 Million by 2036

Giovanni Santostasi, known for modeling Bitcoin’s long-term price using a power-law curve, sharply disagrees with the $11 million forecast.

His model, based on Bitcoin’s historical growth trajectory, suggests a price closer to $2 million in 2036.

The power law approach treats Bitcoin’s price growth as a statistical pattern emerging from millions of independent actors. Santostasi argues that while individual events, such as crashes, bans, and exchange failures, create deviations, the long-term trajectory reverts to a predictable curve.

He compares it to thermodynamics: we cannot predict the movement of a single molecule, but we can predict the behavior of a gas.

From this perspective, even dramatic human events, such as a government adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset, would likely cause jumps along the curve rather than breaking the underlying mathematical structure.

The power law would only fail, Santostasi argues, if Bitcoin’s core “relevant operators” changed, such as its fixed supply or decentralized consensus.

In short: Bitcoin can surprise, but not infinitely.

Bitcoin Price Forecast 2036: Macro Trends vs Mathematical Models

Short-term indicators offer mixed signals.

Analysts tracking the MVRV Z-Score, a metric comparing market value to realized value, note Bitcoin recently entered what some consider a “fair value” zone. Historically, similar conditions have preceded strong multi-year returns, though not without volatility.

Meanwhile:

• Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen renewed inflows.
• Retail sentiment spikes often coincide with short-term rallies.
• Geopolitical shocks continue to drive volatility across global markets.
  

Recent swings, including sharp reversals in equities and Bitcoin amid Middle East tensions, highlight how sensitive markets remain to uncertainty.

Bitcoin has rallied 7% in single sessions and faced steep drawdowns within weeks. Even Burnett’s $11 million scenario includes multiple 50% corrections along the way.

Macro vs Math: The Philosophical Divide Behind Bitcoin’s $2M vs $11M Forecasts

At its core, the debate is philosophical.

Burnett’s thesis is straightforward: AI displaces labor, policymakers respond with monetary expansion, excess liquidity chases scarce assets, and Bitcoin captures the spillover.

Santostasi’s thesis is mathematical: adoption follows a power-law curve, price appreciation decelerates in line with that curve, and extreme deviations eventually mean-revert to trend.

Both assume Bitcoin’s core properties remain intact:

• Fixed supply
• Decentralized consensus
• Global liquidity
• Verifiable scarcity
  

Where they differ is scale.

Is Bitcoin destined to capture a modest slice of global assets, landing near $2 million? Or does AI-driven monetary expansion accelerate capital migration enough to justify $11 million?

What Would Need to Happen for Bitcoin to Hit $11M?

For Bitcoin to reach $11 million by 2036, several conditions would likely need to align:

• Continued global liquidity expansion.
• Institutional adoption at sovereign and pension levels.
• Bitcoin functioning as a primary reserve asset.
• No fundamental protocol changes undermining scarcity.
  

In the $2 million power-law scenario, adoption would continue steadily, but without a dramatic acceleration in global capital flows.

Both paths imply growth from current levels. They differ mainly in magnitude.

Is $11 Million Bitcoin Price Realistic?

Even the most bullish long-term forecasts acknowledge Bitcoin’s history of extreme volatility. Past cycles have included drawdowns of 70% to 80%.

Short-term metrics, sentiment data, and geopolitical developments suggest turbulence will likely continue.

The question is not whether Bitcoin will be volatile; it almost certainly will be.

The question is whether the long-term structural forces of AI-driven productivity and monetary expansion will outweigh statistical constraints on growth.

By 2036, the answer will be clear.

For now, the debate between $2 million and $11 million reflects something more profound: whether Bitcoin’s future is governed more by macroeconomic transformation or by mathematical inevitability.

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About the Author

Giuseppe Ciccomascolo

Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.

Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.

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