Bitcoin price fell to nearly $63,000 after U.S.–Iran tensions escalated.
VanEck says the crypto market may be forming a bottom.
Analysts warn a deeper downside remains possible.
Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom after months of steep losses, VanEck said, even as nearly 40% of altcoins hover near all-time lows and broader risk appetite remains fragile.
While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cloud sentiment, some analysts say signs of stabilization are emerging.
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Speaking on CNBC, a VanEck Funds’ Jan van Eck said the recent rally across the crypto complex, including Bitcoin and large-cap names such as Coinbase and Circle, could signal that the downturn is nearing exhaustion.
VanEck reiterated its view that 2026 represents the fourth year in Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle — typically the weakest phase following three consecutive years of gains.
“Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, then goes down pretty massively in that fourth year,” the executive said. “That’s why we’re in a crypto bear market.”
Despite that, VanEck believes a bottoming process may be underway.
“I think we’re making a bottom and this is a very nice sign of life,” the executive added.
The firm also pointed to rapid growth in stablecoins, which it views as a key structural driver for the sector.
Stablecoin supply jumped 55% in the past week, according to the executive, underscoring what VanEck describes as the “plumbing” evolution of crypto markets.
Altcoins Near All-Time Lows
VanEck’s cautiously optimistic tone comes as altcoins face mounting pressure.
Crypto analyst Darkfrost wrote on X that 38% of altcoins are currently trading near their all-time lows (ATL), marking the largest regression observed during the current market cycle.
For comparison, the metric reached 35% in April 2025 and 37.8% in the immediate aftermath of the FTX collapse, Darkfrost said.
🚨 38% of Altcoins Near ATL, worse than the post-FTX period
The overall environment remains unfavorable for risk-taking, and the first sector to bear the consequences is the cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins.
“The overall environment remains unfavorable for risk-taking,” the analyst wrote, adding that liquidity appears to be flowing into equities and commodities instead of crypto.
The data suggests investor appetite for speculative digital assets remains subdued, particularly for smaller tokens outside Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, Darkfrost noted that periods of extreme deterioration have historically coincided with emerging opportunities.
VanEck’s Long-Term Bitcoin Forecast
VanEck’s near-term comments about a potential market bottom come alongside an aggressively bullish long-term forecast for Bitcoin’s price.
The investment firm has projected that Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050 under its base-case scenario, driven primarily by adoption as a global settlement asset.
Under its scenarios, VanEck outlined a wide range of potential outcomes:
Bear case: $130,000 per Bitcoin by 2050, implying a 2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Base case: $2.9 million per Bitcoin, reflecting a 15% CAGR.
Bull case: $53.4 million per Bitcoin, requiring a 29% CAGR.
The firm also recommends strategic allocations of 1% to 3% in diversified portfolios, with high-risk-tolerant investors potentially allocating up to 20%.
Bearish Bitcoin Price Outlooks Persist
Despite signs that Bitcoin may be stabilizing, some analysts caution that the current downturn could deepen.
Crypto analyst Darkfrost argued that Bitcoin’s present 47% drawdown from its cycle peak remains relatively modest compared with prior bear markets.
“With a 47% drawdown (daily close), we are still far from the magnitudes seen in previous bear markets,” Darkfrost wrote on X, noting that the 2012 bear market saw losses exceeding 90%.
He said investor reaction to the current pullback underscores how sentiment has shifted over time.
“Just imagine the reaction from investors and the media if such a correction were to happen again. With only a 47% decline today, some are already claiming that Bitcoin is dead,” he added.
While historical bear markets have generally become less severe with each cycle, Darkfrost said that pattern does not rule out further downside.
“If this pattern continues, one could reasonably expect a drawdown in the 60% to 70% range,” he said.
A 70% decline from the previous cycle peak near $123,000 would imply a price of roughly $36,900 — significantly below current levels.
At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin price was currently trading at $66,630.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains under macro pressure despite recent consolidation, according to CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju.
The critical support level to watch is $60,263. A breakdown below that level could open the door to $55,000 and potentially the $49,000 macro support zone, Olanrewaju said.
Conversely, a bullish breakout above the pennant formation, accompanied by strong volume, could trigger a short squeeze toward $75,865.
Geopolitical tensions — particularly involving Iran and Israel and the strategic Strait of Hormuz — may also influence near-term price direction, the analyst noted.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
