Toncoin (TON) Price Consolidates as Pavel Durov-Induced Rally Cools Off

Key Takeaways

• Toncoin’s price surged after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov exited France, but bullish momentum has slowed.
• Analysts told CCN that TON’s price may continue consolidating unless the broader altcoin market rallies.
• A bullish scenario could see the altcoin rise to $4.21, while selling pressure might send the price below $3.
• Interested in buying or selling TONCOIN TON? Read our review of the best exchanges to buy and sell TONCOIN TON.

On March 15, Toncoin’s (TON) price rallied from $2.90 to $3.60 following reports that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov had been allowed to leave France. This breakout translated into a 35% 14-day hike.

However, since the new week began, TON’s price has struggled as the bullish momentum has faded. This has led to a period of sideways movement.

Will TON resume its uptrend, or will it fail to keep consolidating?

Toncoin Strength Stalls

TON’s rally earlier on happened after Durov confirmed that he had left France for Dubai. This came months after French authorities arrested him in August 2024.

Since his arrest, Toncoin’s price struggled to keep up with the trend that helped it rally to an all-time high of $8.24 on June 15, 2024.

Based on the daily chart, this month’s rebound triggered TON’s price breakout from the descending channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also climbed in the same direction, indicating bullish momentum around the cryptocurrency.

However, as of this writing, the RSI reading has stalled. The position of this indicator signifies that bullish momentum is fading.

If sustained, Toncoin’s price might fail to retest the $4 mark. Instead, the price of the Telegram-based cryptocurrency may continue to fluctuate around its current level, maintaining the same range it has held since the start of the week.

A look at the Awesome Oscillator (AO) also seems to support this thesis. As seen below, the AO reading is positive but has flashed red histogram bars.

This position indicates that bullish momentum is fading. If this remains the same, Toncoin’s price might find it challenging to trade higher.

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Concerning the short-term potential, CCN spoke to analysts at B2BINPAY, a platform that allows users to operate a multi-currency wallet. According to the analysts, Toncoin’s price might not move closer to its all-time high soon, but it could continue to consolidate.

“So far, the primary target for the price is $3.6-$3.7, which is a very strong resistance level, and it can be turned into a strong support one if broken out. Plus, there are $4 and $4.6 levels, which are also key resistance points,” The B2BINPAY analysts opined.

TON Price Analysis: Bull or Bear?

Zooming into the daily chart again, we observed that Toncoin’s price has risen above the 20 EMA (blue). The 20 EMA is a key support level.

So, climbing above indicates that a major correction might not happen soon. At the same time, TON is trading near the 50 EMA (yellow), indicating that the altcoin might continue moving sideways.

But what happens if the broader market condition improves?

• Bullish scenario: Should the wider crypto market see increased liquidity deployed, Toncoin’s price might climb to the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $4.21. If sustained, TON might climb to $5.35.

However, Fei Chen, CEO of Intellectia AI, a platform created to decode the crypto market and emerging trends, had something to say about this. According to Chen, Toncoin’s price might only be near its all-time high if altcoins rally simultaneously.

“In the absence of a definitive roadmap update from Durov or the TON Foundation, it will likely retest previous highs only within the context of a broader altcoin bull run,” He stated during our conversation.

• Bearish scenario: To invalidate the bullish thesis, TON has to drop below the 20 EMA. Selling pressure also has to outpace the buying volume completely. If that happens, the cryptocurrency’s value might drop toward the $2.35 mark.