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Toncoin (TON) Price Bounces 34% — Key Levels to Watch for a Reversal

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Rebound from 0.618 Fibonacci support
  • Potential corrective ABC pattern developing
  • RSI recovering from oversold territory

Toncoin (TON) has recently undergone significant price shifts, reflecting key turning points in its market structure.

From its all-time high of $8.30 in June last year, the price fell to the $4.50 area, which served as key horizontal support. This level held throughout most of the corrective phase, but finally, we saw a breakdown at the start of February.

Despite the sharp decline to $3, there were some bullish signs, most notably the 34% wick on the daily chart, indicating strong buyers’ interest in scooping up the token. But is this enough to call out a reversal?

TON Price Analysis

On the daily chart, Toncoin has completed a corrective W-X-Y pattern, with wave (Y) bottoming near $3.81, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.

This level is a typical ending point for corrective waves, prompting a sharp rebound. 

TON price analysis
TONUSD  | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView

The price spiked to $3 at its lowest point on Feb. 3 but quickly spiked, closing above $4 on the same day.

It made a 34% wick before retesting the 0.618 at $3.80 the next day. Having dipped into oversold territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now recovering, indicating potential bullish momentum.

The price breakdown below the key horizontal support near $4.62, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, marked a significant bearish shift.

However, the quick recovery suggests a possible bear trap, with the potential for a bullish reversal if the price sustains above $3.81.

The descending channel from the prior peak has been breached temporarily, hinting at the start of a new impulsive structure, though confirmation is needed through sustained upward movement above $4.62.

Toncoin’s price structure reveals significant demand near $3.81, which aligns with strong historical support levels. This area acted as a launchpad for previous bullish moves, suggesting buyers aggressively defend this zone.

Additionally, the bullish divergence observed on the RSI reinforces the potential for a trend reversal.

A decisive close above $4.62 would solidify the bullish scenario, targeting higher Fibonacci levels, while a failure to maintain current gains could expose the price to further downside risks.

TON Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart reveals the early formation of an impulsive five-wave structure from the recent low, indicating the potential start of a new bullish cycle.

Wave (i) marked the initial surge, followed by a corrective wave (ii). Wave (iii) seems to be in progress, targeting the $4.62 resistance level.

TON price prediction
TONUSD reversal developing | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView

Wave (iii) is expected to extend beyond $4.62 if bullish momentum persists, with potential resistance at $5.43, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.

After completing wave (v), a corrective ABC structure is anticipated, potentially retracing back toward the $3.81 support zone before resuming the uptrend.

The RSI is climbing from oversold levels, supporting the bullish case for wave (iii).

The bullish scenario suggests that Toncoin could eventually target the $6.43 area, corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.

However, if the price fails to maintain above $3.81, the bullish outlook may be invalidated, leading to a retest of deeper support levels near $2.65 (0.786 retracements).

Key price reactions are expected to be around $4.62 and $5.43, where market sentiment will play a crucial role in determining the next directional move.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $4.62 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Key Resistance: $5.43 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Critical Resistance: $6.43 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Immediate Support: $3.81 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Critical Support: $2.65 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Invalidation Zone: Below $2.65, signaa ling bearish continuation.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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