Key Takeaways
Toncoin (TON) has recently undergone significant price shifts, reflecting key turning points in its market structure.
From its all-time high of $8.30 in June last year, the price fell to the $4.50 area, which served as key horizontal support. This level held throughout most of the corrective phase, but finally, we saw a breakdown at the start of February.
Despite the sharp decline to $3, there were some bullish signs, most notably the 34% wick on the daily chart, indicating strong buyers’ interest in scooping up the token. But is this enough to call out a reversal?
On the daily chart, Toncoin has completed a corrective W-X-Y pattern, with wave (Y) bottoming near $3.81, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
This level is a typical ending point for corrective waves, prompting a sharp rebound.
The price spiked to $3 at its lowest point on Feb. 3 but quickly spiked, closing above $4 on the same day.
It made a 34% wick before retesting the 0.618 at $3.80 the next day. Having dipped into oversold territory, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now recovering, indicating potential bullish momentum.
The price breakdown below the key horizontal support near $4.62, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, marked a significant bearish shift.
However, the quick recovery suggests a possible bear trap, with the potential for a bullish reversal if the price sustains above $3.81.
The descending channel from the prior peak has been breached temporarily, hinting at the start of a new impulsive structure, though confirmation is needed through sustained upward movement above $4.62.
Toncoin’s price structure reveals significant demand near $3.81, which aligns with strong historical support levels. This area acted as a launchpad for previous bullish moves, suggesting buyers aggressively defend this zone.
Additionally, the bullish divergence observed on the RSI reinforces the potential for a trend reversal.
A decisive close above $4.62 would solidify the bullish scenario, targeting higher Fibonacci levels, while a failure to maintain current gains could expose the price to further downside risks.
The 1-hour chart reveals the early formation of an impulsive five-wave structure from the recent low, indicating the potential start of a new bullish cycle.
Wave (i) marked the initial surge, followed by a corrective wave (ii). Wave (iii) seems to be in progress, targeting the $4.62 resistance level.
Wave (iii) is expected to extend beyond $4.62 if bullish momentum persists, with potential resistance at $5.43, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
After completing wave (v), a corrective ABC structure is anticipated, potentially retracing back toward the $3.81 support zone before resuming the uptrend.
The RSI is climbing from oversold levels, supporting the bullish case for wave (iii).
The bullish scenario suggests that Toncoin could eventually target the $6.43 area, corresponding to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.
However, if the price fails to maintain above $3.81, the bullish outlook may be invalidated, leading to a retest of deeper support levels near $2.65 (0.786 retracements).
Key price reactions are expected to be around $4.62 and $5.43, where market sentiment will play a crucial role in determining the next directional move.
Key Levels to Watch