Toncoin (TON) Stalls After 37% Price Surge — Key Resistance Still in Play

Key Takeaways

• Major support break but potential recovery signs.
• Elliott Wave impulse forming on lower timeframes.
• Key Fibonacci levels acting as resistance.

Toncoin (TON) has recently undergone a significant correction, breaking below key horizontal support daily but showing early signs of a potential recovery.

The Elliott Wave count suggests a completed corrective wave, and the price structure hints at a possible reversal.

Short-term momentum forms an impulsive structure, signaling a potential trend change.

TON Price Analysis

Toncoin recently completed an extended corrective wave, breaking through a significant horizontal support level around $4.72. This led to a steep decline to a low near $3.

It quickly pulled above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical support historically providing strong reactions. 

The wave count suggests a completed W-X-Y correction, indicating the possibility of a trend reversal.

However, its latest recovery is still insignificant, so it is not appropriate to call a reversal just yet. 

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped into oversold territory and is still sitting below the 30% mark.

It is now recovering, supporting the possibility of a rebound. If this is the end of the corrective phase, TON could be forming the early stages of a new impulsive wave.

From a structural perspective, the price was previously consolidated within a descending channel, a known reversal pattern, before breaking the support below.

If the price sustains above $3.80, it could attempt to reclaim lost ground, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4.62 as the first major resistance.

A break beyond this level would strengthen the bullish case, pushing toward $5.43 (0.382 Fib retracement) and potentially the $6.00 region.

Failure to hold above $3.80 could trigger further downside toward $2.65 (0.786 Fib retracement), making this a crucial monitoring level.

TON Price Prediction 

On the hourly timeframe, TON is showing signs of a potential five-wave impulse structure, which would confirm a reversal if it sustains momentum.

The first wave (i) saw a sharp rally to $4.15 from the lows, followed by a corrective wave (ii) at $3.65, forming a bullish flag pattern—a typical continuation structure.

It broke out above the triangle structure but still traded sideways without reaching a higher high above $4.15. 

The next key move to watch is wave (iii), which could push the price toward the $4.62 resistance zone. If wave (iii) extends according to Fibonacci projections, it could reach $4.80-$5.00 before wave (iv) brings a short-term retracement.

Wave (v) could then complete the impulsive structure, targeting $5.40-$5.60, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement from the daily chart. If the price clears this level with strong momentum, a full recovery to the $6.00 region could be possible.

However, a failure to break $4.62 convincingly could lead to a retest of lower supports, particularly $3.80 (0.618 Fib retracement).

If this level fails, the bullish scenario would be invalidated, and further downside would be likely.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $4.62 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Major Resistance: $5.43 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $3.80 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $2.65 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target for Wave (v): $5.40-$5.60 if impulse continues.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $3.80, indicating further downside risks.