Toncoin (TON) Gains 44% Since March Low — Descending Resistance Ahead

Key Takeaways

• Breakout from the descending channel, signaling a bullish reversal.
• 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance at $3.88 in play.
• RSI is rising but nearing the overbought zone, requiring confirmation.
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Toncoin (TON) has recently rebounded from a critical support zone, suggesting a potential trend reversal.

The daily chart highlights a key resistance reached inside the corrective structure, while the 1-hour chart shows a developing Elliott Wave sequence, with a potential breakout soon.

TON Price Analysis

Toncoin has been in a prolonged downtrend, forming a descending channel since its peak at $8.28. The price recently found strong support at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $2.68, leading to a bullish reversal.

This low could have ended the WXY corrective pattern, with its next recovery to $3.50 indicating the starting bull phase. 

The price came up to the descending channel’s resistance, whose breakout would confirm the bullish assumption. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned upwards from oversold conditions since the March 11 low, indicating increasing buying momentum.

However, TON faces key resistance at the descending channel boundary, with its next one at the 0.618 Fib of $3.88.

A successful break above this level would confirm a larger bullish trend, with targets at $4.72 (0.5 Fibonacci) and $5.56 (0.382 Fibonacci).

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If rejection occurs at current levels, TON may retest the $2.68 support before resuming its upward trajectory.

A failure to hold this level could invalidate the bullish setup, potentially dragging the price lower toward $2.37.

TON Price Prediction

The 1-hour chart provides a detailed Elliott Wave structure, indicating that TON is within a five-wave impulse sequence. Wave (iii) has completed, reaching resistance at $3.61, and the price is now in a corrective Wave (iv).

This pullback could test support around $3.14 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) before Wave (v) resumes the uptrend.

If Wave (iv) finds support at $3.14 or the 0.5 retracement level of $2.99, it could confirm the next impulsive leg, pushing TON toward the next resistance at $4.12. Beyond that, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the daily chart at $4.72 could serve as a key target.

However, if the correction extends deeper and breaks below $2.84 (0.618 Fibonacci), it would signal weakness, invalidating the current bullish wave count. The RSI on the 1-hour chart is showing a slight bearish divergence, suggesting a cooling-off period before the next rally.

Toncoin’s breakout suggests a potential trend shift, but resistance at key Fibonacci levels needs to be cleared for sustained upside. Monitoring the Wave (iv) pullback will confirm the next bullish move.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $4.12 (Wave (v) target).
• Major Resistance: $4.72 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $3.14 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Support: $2.99 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $2.84 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target: Above $4.12 if Wave (v) extends.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $2.68, signaling further downside risk.