Will Toncoin Break Down Below $5? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Toncoin (TON) fell after its yearly high of $8.28 in June.
The Toncoin price has created its first lower high this cycle.
Is the TON correction over, or does more downside await?
The Toncoin (TON) price has decreased since its yearly high of $8.28 in June. While TON bounced in November, breaking out from a descending resistance trend line, it fell again this week, putting the breakdown at risk.
The drop happened despite positive Toncoin news on Dec. 18, when the team announced it had released the FinTax Telegram Mini App.
TON has returned to its long-term support at $5, which is key in determining the future trend. Will TON bounce or break down? Let’s find out.
The weekly time frame chart shows that TON has fallen since reaching a yearly high of $8.29 in June. The decrease took the price back to the $5 horizontal support area, which has existed since March and caused several bounces (white icons).
In November, TON broke out from a descending resistance trend line that has existed since the yearly high. This was a sign that the upward movement was over.
However, TON created a lower high in December (black icon) and returned to the horizontal support area this week, making the breakout doubtless.
The decline also confirmed the $7 horizontal resistance, creating a trading range between $5 and 7.
Similarly to the price action, technical indicators are undetermined. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are at 50 and 0, respectively, showing undetermined trends.
The daily time frame of the TON price chart is bearish. This is because the price trades inside an ascending parallel channel, which often contains corrective movements, and because TON broke down from an ascending support trend line (white).
Additionally, the daily RSI is decreasing and is below 50. So, the weekly time frame price action and wave count lean bearish, suggesting that a local top is in place.
TON Price Correction Over?
Unlike the price action and indicator readings, the TON wave count is bullish. The most likely count suggests that TON started the fifth and final wave of an upward movement in June 2022.
According to the count, the correction ended in September with a bounce (white icon) at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement support level of $4.63.
While this would make wave four longer, it is still valid. In this possibility, Toncoin’s price would decline to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level, giving waves A and C the same length.
Because of the mixed signs, the trend is undetermined. In case of a breakdown below $5, Toncoin’s price could fall to $3.76.
On the other hand, a breakout can lead to a price of $10.70. The target is found by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four.
Undetermined Trend
The future TON price prediction is undetermined. While the price action and indicator readings are bearish, the wave count is bullish.
Whether TON breaks out or down from its long-term support at $5 can help determine the future trend’s direction.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
