Toncoin (TON) Recovers 7% as Price Maintains Crucial Support Zone

Key Takeaways

• Descending wedge nearing potential breakout point.
• Key resistance at $4.72, with 0.618 Fib at $3.88.
• RSI is showing signs of early bullish divergence.
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Toncoin (TON) has been in a prolonged downtrend, forming a descending channel since reaching its peak.

However, the price action suggests it may be approaching a key turning point, with signs of a breakout or further decline.

We can evaluate potential price trajectories by analyzing the 4-hour chart for broader trends and the 1-hour chart for short-term movements.

TON Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart of TON reveals a significant downtrend that has been in place since the peak at $8.28 on Jun. 15.

The price has been moving in a corrective structure, following a clear W-X-Y pattern. The Y-wave recently completed around $3.00.

The price is currently sitting near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $3.88, a historically significant level for trend reversals.

Additionally, the descending wedge pattern visible in the chart suggests a potential breakout, which would confirm a shift in market momentum.

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Despite the long-term downtrend, early bullish signals are emerging. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly diverges, weakening the selling pressure. 

If TON successfully breaks above $3.88, the next key level to watch will be the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $4.72, which aligns with previous structural resistance.

However, failure to break out could mean another leg lower toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $2.68, marking critical last-stand support before further downside ensues.

TON Price Prediction

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, TON is at a crossroads. The price remains inside a falling wedge formation, which historically acts as a bullish reversal pattern.

The critical decision point will be the resistance at $3.88 (0.618 Fib level), where the price needs to establish support for further upside momentum.

Bullish Scenario:

A breakout above $3.88 would confirm a bullish reversal, likely leading to a test of the $4.72 resistance (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).

If this level is cleared, the next logical target is $5.56, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and prior consolidation zones. 

Momentum confirmation via RSI and volume spikes would be crucial in validating this scenario.

Bearish Scenario:

If TON fails to sustain above $3.88 and instead faces rejection, it could revisit the previous low around $3.00 or even extend losses to the $2.68 support (0.786 Fib level). A breakdown below $3.00 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest continued bearish control.

The RSI remains neutral, hovering around 40-50, meaning there is room for either direction. Volume confirmation is key, as a breakout without volume would likely be a false signal.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
• Key Resistance: $4.72 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Major Resistance: $5.56 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
• Immediate Support: $3.00 (recent low).
• Critical Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
• Short-Term Target: Above $4.72 if breakout confirms.
• Invalidation Zone: Below $3.00, signaling further downside.