Cardano price might continue to drop | Credit: Hameem Sarwae
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Key Takeaways
Cardano’s price is yet to breach a key resistance after a 25% 30-day decline.
The extreme fear in the market has not triggered buying pressure for ADA.
This technical analysis reveals the cryptocurrency’s short-term targets.
Cardano (ADA) is still on unstable ground after a 25% slide from its mid-January high near $0.44.
While dip buyers are scanning for a rebound, both technical structure and on-chain data suggest the altcoin hasn’t completed its reset.
As such, Cardano’s price might struggle to break out in the short term.
Cardano Is Under Pressure
The first red flag is structural. The $0.30 area, which previously acted as support, has flipped into resistance.
As seen below, ADA’s price recently attempted to reclaim the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $0.29.
However, it faced rejection, slipping almost 5% in the aftermath. At the same time, Cardano’s price remains pinned below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs.
When a crypto trades beneath all major moving averages, rallies tend to be sold rather than extended.
The inability to reclaim that resistance confirms that bulls are still failing at key levels.
Meanwhile, the green support zone near $0.25 remains the critical demand area. Price has already woken up in that region once and reacted.
If this level holds again and forms a higher low, ADA’s price could attempt another move toward $0.29.
However, a breakdown below $0.25 would likely accelerate downside continuation toward new local lows.
No Improvement Anytime Soon
Therefore, as long as Cardano’s price respects the upper descending trendline, the broader bias remains to the downside.
A breakout above the channel and a reclaim of $0.29 would be the first sign of structural improvement.
But as it stands, macro conditions aren’t helping. The broader crypto market is deep in an Extreme Fear phase, with sentiment collapsing amid geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns.
In this condition, altcoins like ADA typically underperform as capital rotates into Bitcoin or stablecoins.
Price has repeatedly been rejected from the upper channel boundary and continues to trade below the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $0.33.
The broader retracement structure shows that ADA’s price has failed to reclaim even shallow pullback levels, which confirms weak bullish momentum. The recent bounce from the $0.22 region has also been corrective
Supertrend remains bearish and positioned above the price near 0.32, acting as key resistance.
Until ADA closes above that level and flips Supertrend support, the primary trend bias remains to the downside.
In addition, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains negative, though the histogram has been contracting. That signals downside momentum is slowing, but not reversing.
There is no confirmed higher high or higher low on the daily structure yet, so this remains a consolidation within a bearish channel.
The key level to watch is the lower boundary near 0.$22. A breakdown below that region would confirm continuation toward deeper support zones.
On the upside, ADA would need to reclaim $0.33 first, then break the descending channel and push above 0.40 to signal a meaningful structural shift.
There is, however, a longer-term counterpoint. Large wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have reportedly accumulated over 240 million tokens since mid-February.
That suggests strategic positioning beneath the surface, even as retail sentiment deteriorates.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
