Key Takeaways
- ADA has fallen to $0.25, where buyers are defending, but momentum remains bearish.
- Short-term indicators show easing selling pressure, yet Cardano bulls lack strength.
- Failure to reclaim the Fib resistance keeps downside risk alive, with $0.20 as the support
Cardano (ADA) has struggled to find a floor after its recent drop to $0.25.
This happened as selling pressure dominated most of the past week.
Despite buyers’ attempts to stabilize the token, momentum remains tilted toward the downside. As a result, traders are uncertain whether a true bottom has been reached.
The broader crypto market has intensified ADA’s challenges. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which often set the tone for altcoins, have shown persistent weakness, failing to hold key support levels.
While ADA appears to be holding at a crucial level around $0.25, market participants remain cautious. Here is what lies ahead for ADA.
Cardano Buyers Struggle to Sustain Momentum
The 4-hour chart shows ADA’s price trying to gain traction, though it struggles to print sustained green candles. Short-term momentum indicators suggest the battle between buyers and sellers is far from over.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) remains in negative territory, signaling continued downside pressure, even as histogram bars gradually shorten, hinting at a potential easing of selling strength.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed out of the oversold region to 33.82, showing that while bearish pressure dominates, a short-term bounce could appear if buyers step in more aggressively.
ADA/USD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView
Immediate resistance sits at $0.29, with a stronger barrier at $0.30, while support holds around $0.26.
If ADA’s price fails to surpass key resistance, it could test lower levels in the coming days.
Altcoin Still in Trouble
Meanwhile, Cardano’s MVRV ratio has now moved deeply into negative territory, aligning with the sharp drawdown in price.
An MVRV this depressed means that, on average, holders are sitting on unrealized losses.
Historically, this zone has reflected capitulation rather than exuberance, with market participants who bought higher either underwater or already exited.
This position typically reduces sell pressure over time, as fewer holders remain incentivized to sell at a loss.
From a behavioral perspective, prolonged periods of negative MVRV have often coincided with late-stage downtrends.
This does not imply an immediate reversal. However, it suggests that downside risk is beginning to compress relative to upside potential, especially if broader market conditions stabilize.
Price action still reflects weakness, with ADA’s price maintaining a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
However, the gap between price decline and the already heavily negative MVRV indicates that much of the damage may already be priced in.
ADA MVRV Ratio | Credit: Santiment
In past cycles, similar conditions preceded extended consolidation ranges before any meaningful recovery took shape.
While short-term volatility remains a risk, the negative MVRV further supports the view that Cardano’s price is closer to a structural bottom than to the start of a fresh impulsive sell-off.
ADA Price Outlook: Dead Cat Bounce
On the daily chart, ADA continues its downward movement, breaking past key support zones and carving out fresh lows.
At press time, the token rests at a critical support level of $0.26, where buyers have so far held the line.
Declining momentum indicators, however, reveal that sellers still control ADA’s price action.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces this outlook, forming multiple red histogram bars in negative territory, though the bars have faded slightly as buyers attempt to defend the $0.25 zone.
The 26-day EMA has crossed above the 12-day EMA, signaling that the short-term trend remains bearish despite temporary stabilization efforts.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) also remains deep in negative territory, with long histogram bars pointing to persistent bearish momentum.
While selling pressure shows early signs of slowing, the overall trend remains favorable to downside risk.
ADA’s price, which previously touched the 0 Fib level at $0.22, has partially recovered and is testing the $0.26 support level again.
Trading volumes remain thin, down 8% over the past 24 hours, suggesting buyers are cautious and a decisive reversal has yet to materialize.
ADA/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
Key resistance now sits at the 0.236 Fib level of $0.41, where a sustained break could trigger a corrective rally.
Until this barrier is breached, ADA’s price is likely to remain under pressure. If that is the case, then Cardano’s price might decline to $0.20.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
