Tom Lee remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Tom Lee says Bitcoin’s yearly returns are concentrated in just 10 days.
Lee believes August to October could be a key window.
Despite recent price weakness, Lee remains bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin’s biggest annual gains typically occur over just 10 trading days, according to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who argued that investors trying to time the market risk missing nearly all of crypto’s long-term returns.
His comments come as Bitcoin remains under pressure amid persistent spot ETF outflows and broader uncertainty, trading near $59,200 after another daily decline.
Lee added that this has not been the “summer of crypto” despite a string of previous calls of mega price hikes, but remains extremely bullish on long-term Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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“We also know that crypto makes most of its gains in 10 days, so the 10 best days drive almost all the returns in a year,” the Bitmine Chairman said.
Lee said that creates a major challenge for investors attempting to perfectly time entries and exits.
While he noted that investors with a “great model” to analyze Bitcoin moves can “serve them very well,” he said it was important to keep in mind that growth happens in short time frames.
“Bitcoin has the best compounded annual return of any asset over the past 10 years, or even the past 15 years,” he said.
But added that taking out these strongest sessions dramatically changes Bitcoin’s long-term performance.
“If you exclude the 10 best days for each year in Bitcoin, you’d actually be down 27% per year.
“So all the gains in Bitcoin basically come down to 10 days.”
When Could Those 10 Days Arrive This Year?
While Lee did not identify the specific days when Bitcoin’s strongest returns could occur, he did suggest investors typically focus on the latter part of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
“They may not want to actually be even thinking about buying crypto until we get towards that early window of the four-year cycle, so that’s really August to October,” he said.
If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin’s outsized gains could again arrive suddenly during periods of improving sentiment or positive catalysts.
This makes them difficult for investors on the sidelines to capture.
The firm said higher interest rates have weakened the “debasement trade” that previously supported both Bitcoin and gold.
It warned the crypto could “fall moderately further” if the Fed is forced to tighten policy.
Grayscale also identified the progress of the CLARITY Act in the US Senate, Strategy’s balance sheet, and quantum computing concerns as key variables that could influence Bitcoin’s next major move.
The asset manager said passage of the CLARITY Act and a strengthening of Strategy’s balance sheet could help improve market sentiment and support Bitcoin’s recovery.
Conversely, if the legislation stalls, corporate Bitcoin holders continue deleveraging and the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish stance, the crypto could face further downside before establishing a cyclical bottom.
He pointed to continued institutional adoption of blockchain infrastructure despite capital flowing toward artificial intelligence.
“Wall Street has an outdated tech stack that they want to upgrade, and that is going to be built on crypto rails. That story hasn’t changed.”
Looking further ahead, Lee remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
“I’m confident Bitcoin’s price will recover because Bitcoin still remains one of the most pristine ways to transfer and store value,” he said.
Adding: “It is a blockchain that has never been exploited, and it’s supported by a community that wants to ossify and protect that chain.”
Lee also suggested investor sentiment has reached extremely depressed levels.
“These are dark days… sentiment is as bad as it can get right now.”
Bitcoin Extends Decline as ETF Outflows Continue
Bitcoin’s price was trading at $59,216 at the time of reporting, down roughly 20% over the past month.
The latest weakness comes as US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain on course for their largest monthly outflow on record, with more than $4.1 billion leaving funds during June, according to CoinMarketCap.
The sustained institutional selling has added pressure to Bitcoin alongside uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and global regulation.
Analysts are now closely watching the $58,100-$58,500 support zone.
Holding that level could allow Bitcoin’s price to rebound toward $61,000, while a decisive break below it could expose the crypto to a move toward $55,000-$56,000 if ETF outflows persist.
Lee Backs Ethereum Fundamentals Despite Price Weakness
Lee also argued again that Ethereum’s weak price performance has diverged from its strengthening fundamentals, citing growing tokenization activity and ongoing network upgrades.
“It’s not the outcome that anybody wants,” Lee said, adding that “Ethereum can’t escape the fact that we’re in a period where price is lagging fundamentals.”
He said more real-world assets continue to be tokenized on Ethereum, while the Ethereum Foundation is working to make the blockchain “quantum proof.”
Lee also argued that Wall Street’s shift toward tokenized finance remains intact.
“Most of the major funds and stocks that are being tokenized are being tokenized on Ethereum because it is the most widely used blockchain,” he said.
Looking further ahead, Lee said the future of AI further strengthens the case for Ethereum.
“There is no change to the idea that at the center of why you want to be involved in crypto is both the future of AI and Wall Street’s updating their tech stacks,” Lee said.
He warned that relying solely on centralized infrastructure could create risks, saying decentralized networks would become increasingly important “to protect humans against AI becoming too powerful.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
