Key Takeaways
- Galaxy Research lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%.
- The research firm cited a shrinking Senate calendar rather than weakening bipartisan support.
- Around 4,000 community banks have launched a campaign warning the CLARITY Act’s stablecoin provisions could drain $1.3 trillion in deposits.
The revised forecast reflects growing concerns that competing legislative priorities are consuming the limited floor time available before Congress breaks for summer.
Senate Calendar Becomes the Biggest Obstacle
The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14 and has remained on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1.
However, lawmakers have yet to release a unified version reconciling the Banking and Agriculture committees’ proposals, and Senate leadership has not announced when the bill will reach the floor.
Thorn argues that the downgrade is driven almost entirely by scheduling pressures rather than any deterioration in bipartisan support.
“The absence of news is itself the news,” he wrote in Galaxy Research’s latest policy update, noting that a bill of this size still requires a merged legislative text, a motion to proceed, floor debate, amendments, Senate approval, and eventual House action before it can reach President Donald Trump‘s desk.
Galaxy believes Senate Majority Leader John Thune must commit to floor consideration by early July if lawmakers hope to complete the process before the August recess.
Without that commitment, the legislation could slip into September, when the approaching midterm elections are expected to make politically sensitive votes significantly harder to schedule.
While staff-level negotiations reportedly remain constructive, Thorn stressed that private discussions are no substitute for an official legislative timetable.
Ethics Disputes and Competing Priorities Slow Momentum
Beyond procedural delays, several policy disputes remain unresolved.
Democratic lawmakers continue pushing for stronger ethics provisions following the defeat of Senator Chris Van Hollen‘s conflict-of-interest amendment in committee.
Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have both indicated that enforceable ethics standards remain essential to securing their support.
Meanwhile, lawmakers focused on anti-money laundering and national security continue seeking changes to the developer protections included in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), one of the more controversial components incorporated into the broader crypto market structure package.
At the same time, the Senate’s agenda has become increasingly crowded.
Trump recently threatened to withhold his signature from a bipartisan housing package until Congress passes the SAVE Act, adding another politically contentious issue to an already packed legislative calendar.
Combined with the need to advance the NDAA and restore expired FISA surveillance authorities, those priorities are consuming leadership attention at a critical moment for the crypto bill.
According to Galaxy, floor time, not bipartisan support, is now the scarcest resource.
Community Banks Launch Campaign Against Stablecoin Provisions
The CLARITY Act is also facing mounting opposition outside Capitol Hill.
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), representing roughly 4,000 community banks, has launched a six-figure advertising campaign warning that the legislation’s stablecoin provisions could accelerate deposit flight from local lenders.
The trade group argues that allowing crypto firms to offer rewards or incentives tied to stablecoin use would encourage consumers to move funds away from community banks and onto digital asset platforms.
ICBA estimates such migration could ultimately drain as much as $1.3 trillion in deposits, reducing lending capacity by approximately $850 billion for small businesses, farmers, and local communities.
Community banks currently provide more than 60% of all small-business loans and roughly 80% of agricultural lending in the United States, according to the organization.
Crypto industry representatives reject those concerns. Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone argued that the campaign reflects incumbent banks attempting to shield themselves from competition rather than legitimate consumer protection issues, saying clear federal rules would provide regulatory certainty while expanding financial innovation.
Despite lowering its forecast, Galaxy Research emphasized that the legislation still has a realistic chance of passing this year. Thorn said the committee approval, continued staff negotiations, and bipartisan engagement remain encouraging signs.
However, he warned that unless Senate leadership commits to floor action within the next two weeks, the probability of enactment could fall even further as the legislative calendar continues to tighten.
Top Trending Crypto Articles
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
