Ethereum ETF: Issuers Flood S-1 Filings But Approval Odds Bleak  

Key Takeaways

• The odds of an Ethereum ETF approval by May continue to be low as per analysts.
• Over $2.4 million in bets have been placed on Polymarket on the approval outcome.
• Deadlines for ETF applications range from May to November with recent filings from Bitwise and Fidelity.

Bitwise filed 19b-4 and S-1 documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) after Fidelity. Despite the deadline looming for heavy-weight applicants, the odds of approval remain grim. Polymarket bets reveal a 19% chance of a ‘yes’ decision.

Rush for Ethereum ETF Filings

Potential Ethereum ETF issuers like Bitwise and Fidelity filed their S-1 and 19b-4 forms with the SEC. An S-1 form is a registration statement filed before issuing new securities to the public for the first time. 19b-4 forms propose rule changes.

For all the applicants, the final deadlines of these ETF applications stretch from May to November 2024. Applications from VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Hashdex, and Grayscale Ethereum Futures Trust are due by May 2024, with the Grayscale conversion deadline in June, Invesco Galaxy deadline in July, Fidelity and iShares coming up in August and Franklin in November.

Market Predict Low Approval Odds

Despite the interest, the optimism for a timely approval of these ETFs seems unlikely as per experts and market observers. Bloomberg analysts have pegged the chances of an approval by May at a dismal 25%, with sentiments echoed across the board. Polymarket traders are even more pessimistic, with approval odds at 19% following a 75% drop. The bleak outlook covers $2.4m in bets, with 81% betting on ‘No’ before the first deadline.

Recently, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in a podcast with Blockworks that “the probability is probably going down” for Ethereum ETF approval. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has publicly stated  doubts about the SEC’s approval in the near term. Meanwhile, the market is debating if Ethereum would be considered a security as per the SEC with a potential impact on the approval timeline.

Eye on Ethereum’s Status

The approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in the United States is more uncertain than previously seen with Bitcoin ETF. Analysts and betting market trends indicate low expectations for a breakthrough by the May deadlines.

The market will have to keep an eye on regulatory and SEC commentary regarding Ethereum’s status as a security.

About the Author

Shraddha Sharma

Shraddha has around five years of experience as a financial journalist, focusing largely on the Asian markets. Starting her career in Mumbai, India, as a news trainee and producer, she quickly found her niche in crypto. She is keen on learning how emerging technologies affect the broader markets and enjoys explaining complex financial ideas in a way that's easy to understand.

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