Ethereum ETF Deadline Looms, Can ETH Start Catching Up with Bitcoin?

Key Takeaways

• The final deadline for the approval of the first Ethereum ETF is on May 23.
• The ETH price has decreased since reaching its yearly high on March 11.
• Will the ETH price movement before the ETF be similar to that of BTC?

After the approval of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) on January 11, Ethereum is next in line for its own ETF approval, which has, however, garnered much more skepticism than its predecessor.

The ETH price is also struggling compared to Bitcoin, and is at risk of losing a long-term horizontal support area. If the sentiment around the ETF turns positive, can the ETH price start to catch up with BTC until the deadline on May 23?

When Is the Deadline for the Ethereum ETF?

The final deadlines for the first three Ethereum ETF applications are on May 23, 24 and 30, respectively. The first one was filed by VanECK, followed by ARK 21 and Hashdex. So, there are less than two months until the SEC gives the final word on whether the first ETF will be approved.

Even though the Bitcoin ETF was approved on January 11, there is more skepticism surrounding the Ethereum ETF compared to it. One of the main reasons is the inclusion of staking in some of the ETF applications, more specifically by Fidelity and Grayscale.

The Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) has already filed lawsuits against Kraken and Coinbase, partially because of their staking-as-a-service programs. This has caused doubt amongst analysts on the approval chances of the ETF. Bloomberg analysts predict the possibility for approval is only 25%. The Ethereum foundation  is also under scrutiny by the SEC.

However, some analysts, such as Jim Cramer, believe that Ethereum ETF will be successful, similar to the Bitcoin ETF.

Despite the deadline approaching, the ETH price fell over 25% after reaching a new yearly high on March 11. In contrast, the BTC price had increased significantly preceding the ETF approval and only fell afterward.

How Does Ethereum Compare With Bitcoin?

The BTC price started its upward trend on October 12, exactly 90 days before the ETF was approved. During this time, it increased by nearly 75%. If the ETH price were to increase by the same amount, it would reach a high of $5,100 by May 23.

There are only 56 days left until the deadline. In the 56 days before the approval of its ETF, the BTC price increased by 28%. A similar increase will take the ETH price to $4,600.

So, the ETH movement before the ETF has not been that different to BTC. If this similarity continues, the ETH price will reach a high between $4,600 – $5,100 by the end of May.

ETH Price Prediction: Has ETH/BTC Bottomed?

The ETH/BTC chart shows a downward trend ongoing since September 2022. The price has followed a descending resistance trend line during this time.

In the past five months, ETH has traded between the ₿0.052 horizontal area and the descending resistance trend line, validating both numerous times. Currently, it is in the process of breaking down from the horizontal support area.

However, the weekly RSI is bullish, since it has been generating bullish divergence since October 2023. A bullish divergence in such long-term time frames is rare and often leads to bullish trend reversals.

Since the price action and RSI readings do not align with each other, whether the ETH price breaks down below the ₿0.052 horizontal area or bounces and breaks out from the descending resistance trend line instead will be critical in determining the future trend.

A breakdown can trigger a 30% drop to ₿0.036 while a breakout from the trend line will likely cause a 50% increase to ₿0.078.

Approval of ETH Can Take ETH to $5,000

The ETH price movement has been similar to that of Bitcoin before the approval of its ETF. If the fractal continues, ETH can reach a high between $4,600 – $5,100 by the end of May.

However, the ETH price will continue underperforming BTC if ETH/BTC breaks down from its long-term horizontal support area at ₿0.052

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

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