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Bitcoin Demand: 90 Day Post-Halving Technical Forecast

Last Updated May 14, 2024 11:57 AM
Andrew Kamsky
Last Updated May 14, 2024 11:57 AM
By Andrew Kamsky
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • The first BTC 90 day post-halving saw a 269% increase in Bitcoin’s price.
  • The second BTC 90 day post-halving saw a 5% decrease in Bitcoin’s price.
  • The third BTC 90 day post-halving saw a 30% increase in Bitcoin’s price.
  • With new all-time highs being hit pre-halving, a first for BTC, price projections for 90 days post-halving range between $72,000, $89,000 and $125,000, anticipating interesting growth opportunities for investors and traders.

A Bitcoin halving happens every four years within the Bitcoin blockchain protocol, and cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half. This reduction in block rewards effectively slows down the rate at which new Bitcoin is generated, serving as the mechanism that ensures the total BTC supply will cap at 21 million by the year 2140.

The objective of the below analysis is to examine the price of Bitcoin 90 days following each halving event. We will use historical data to project potential future price trends. 

Bitcoin Post-Halving Price Analysis

Bitcoin Halving 2012

In 2012, the first Bitcoin halving took place and this was the very first time the Bitcoin reward was cut in half, from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block mined.

At the time of the 2012 halving the price of Bitcoin , shown by the vertical dashed line in the chart below, was approximately $11. Following the halving, the price rose 269% over the following 90 days peaking at around $49. The chart below illustrates this rise with a series of predominantly green candlesticks, suggesting consistent buying pressure and increased investor confidence.

90 Days BTC Post-Halving 2012
90 Days BTC Post-Halving 2012

Throughout these 90 days, the price movement of Bitcoin was mostly sideways then upwards, with minor retracements yet quickly reacting with bullish activity. This trend reflected a strong market response to the halving.

By the end of this 90 day period, Bitcoin closed at around $36. This rise not only highlights the impact of the first halving event on Bitcoin but also marked the long-term value growth potential Bitcoin might hold in future halving periods. A narrative that has helped BTC increase in value from $36 to $74K.

Bitcoin Halving 2016

In the aftermath of the 2016 Bitcoin halving, the price trajectory of BTC underwent notable fluctuations, unlike the previous halving. Between 10 and 50 days post-halving, Bitcoin’s price was extremely volatile. It moved from $665 to $482, reflecting market uncertainty and speculative plays made by traders responding to the new supply rate.

The chart then illustrates a series of upward moves. These pushed the price upwards to an average of around $585 between 40 and 50 days after the halving. 

90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2016
90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2016

From day 50 to day 90 post-halving, the price entered a consolidation phase. The chart shows smaller candlesticks, both red and green, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. 

This phase of consolidation suggests the market was balancing out the initial reactions to the halving, finding equilibrium between supply expectations and investor sentiment. This meant price changes were less dramatic, leading to a slight overall decline by the end of the 90-day period, finishing off in a 5% overall. 

Having said this, 14 days after, the price was above $665 as it began its ascent to $19,000 in 2017.

Bitcoin Halving 2020

The 2020 Bitcoin halving saw an increase in the price of BTC by 30%, a contrast to the post-halving performance in 2016. In the first 50 days following the halving, the chart shows a phase of volatility and consolidation as the market digested the implications of the reduced mining reward.

Despite some mostly positive fluctuations, the price remained relatively stable at around $9,200, hovering at pre-halving levels without significant gains. 

90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2020
90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2020

However, from day 50 to day 90 post-halving, Bitcoin’s price trajectory began to increase. 

The chart from this period features a large green candlestick, indicating a sudden upward movement in price. This increase began around the mid-point of the 90-day window and continued to rise, resulting in a 30% increase by the end of the 90-day period post-halving. 

Bitcoin Halving 2024: Current Projection And Forecast

The 2024 and fourth Bitcoin halving has been extremely interesting. This time, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs at $74,000 35 days before the halving, a market behavior never previously observed in past cycles. 

90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2024
90 Day BTC Post-Halving 2024

This unusual rise may have been a speculative trading move around anticipated ETF approvals

Current Projection for the 2024 Halving

Data Interpretation

Taking an average of all the past outcomes suggests a potential price increases ranging from 40% to 97% post-halving. If the first halving was a potential one-off, and is excluded, a more conservative estimate based on the last two cycles suggests a potential rise of about 12%.

Significance of Pre-Halving All-Time High

The recent increase to new all-time highs before the halving introduced a new behaviour into the Bitcoin post-halving analysis. The increase in price, which was likely influenced by the ETF approval, added a layer of new bullish sentiment around Bitcoin in 2024, that was absent in the earlier cycles. 

This factor may suggest stronger market confidence as we move into the new cycle and may potentially suggest a more sustained price increase rally if the bullish sentiment persists, post-halving.

Initial 30 days Post-Halving

The chart for the initial 30 days in 2024 indicates a cautious approach as Bitcoin has corrected from $74K down to $56K and is currently at $62K, with this correction similar to 2016,  less volatility is now expected, if Bitcoin is to follow in a similar manner to the past 3 cycles. 

The current price pattern reflects a market that is tentatively optimistic, possibly consolidating gains from the pre-halving increase in price, while anticipating future gains.

Potential Price Points

After factoring the historical behaviour in price, and the pre-halving all-time high, projections for Bitcoin’s price 90 days post-halving are difficult to predict, however, BTC may reach $72K, $89K, and even as high as $125K. 

The low-end projection considers a scenario with limited external influence, whereas the higher-end projection assumes an aggressive expansion in market adoption and investor enthusiasm, echoing a similar move to the 2012 and 2020 rally with a touch of 2016 in the first 30 days.

One thing for certain though is the trend seems to have a strong possibility to continue moving upwards. However, having said this Bitcoin does like to surprise.

Conclusion

The 2024 Bitcoin halving stands as an interesting moment in time, notably due to fact that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $74,000 as early as 35 days before the halving, a first in its halving history. Based on the analysis of historical BTC data, the  BTC price following the halving is projected to increase by anywhere from 12% to 97%.

The unique circumstances of the 2024 cycle, coupled with historical data, suggest a possibility for price growth. Indeed, it forecasts potential targets of $72,000, $89,000, and $125,000 within 90 days post-halving. 

Disclaimer

​​The information provided herein is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and high risk in nature, do not invest more than you can afford to lose.

FAQs

What is a Bitcoin halving?

The Bitcoin halving is an event that halves the reward for mining new blocks, affecting the supply and potentially increasing Bitcoin’s price over time due to the asset becoming more scarce in nature and its creation.

How often does Bitcoin halving occur?

Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years, or after every 210,000 blocks mined.

What impact does a Bitcoin halving have on Bitcoin's price?

Historically, halvings tend to lead to increased Bitcoin prices due to reduced supply and heightened demand.

Can external factors influence Bitcoin's price post-halving?

External factors like regulatory changes or macroeconomic events can significantly affect Bitcoin’s price.

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