While Bailey’s bullish stance reflects the growing confidence in Bitcoin, not everyone is convinced the good times will last. | Credit: Getty Images.
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Key Takeaways
Donald Trump’s Bitcoin advisor David Bailey says a crypto bear market won’t hit for years, but a CCN analyst warns it could come in months.
CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju warns the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator suggests Bitcoin could be near the late stages of a cycle.
Bitcoin fell from $116,885 to $110,180 over four days, partly due to a long-term holder liquidating billions in BTC.
Donald Trump’s Bitcoin advisor, David Bailey, recently claimed there will not be another BTC bear market for several years, but CCN analysts argue that data and historical patterns tell a different story.
Bailey’s optimism is centered around the increased institutional investments in the digital asset, which he believes will continue to drive the price higher.
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On Sunday, Aug. 24, Bailey, founder of Bitcoin Magazine, took to X to share his thoughts on the future of Bitcoin’s price.
“There’s not going to be another Bitcoin bear market for several years,” he wrote.
“Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin,” he added, claiming BTC had not even captured 0.01% of the total addressable market yet.
There’s not going to be another Bitcoin bear market for several years.
Every Sovereign, Bank, Insurer, Corporate, Pension, and more will own Bitcoin. The process has already begun in earnest, yet we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the TAM.
We’re going so much higher. Dream big
— David Bailey🇵🇷 $1.0mm/btc is the floor (@DavidFBailey) August 23, 2025
Bailey added that this was the “first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy-in,” claiming past firm buy-ins were “outliers with marginal bets.”
“They’re now flowing in with size. Eternal September of institutional adoption,” he wrote.
Analysts Disagree
While Bailey’s bullish stance reflects the growing confidence in institutional adoption, not everyone is convinced the good times will last.
Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, argues that historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could be closer to the next downturn than Bailey implies.
“While Bailey may have a point that the Bitcoin bull market isn’t over, historical data paints a different picture,” Olanrewaju said.
He points to the Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator, which currently shows BTC edging into the “overheated bull” zone — a level that has historically marked the late stages of previous cycles.
In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin entered this overheated territory just months before sharp corrections triggered prolonged bear markets, Olanrewaju explained.
In each case, euphoria and aggressive buying drove prices to new highs, but the momentum eventually flipped and led to steep declines.
“If the same pattern plays out, Bitcoin may only have a few months of upside left before the next bear market sets in,” Olanrewaju explained.
Bitcoin Price Plummets
Over the past few days, Bitcoin’s price has suffered a significant decline after spending so long seemingly climbing to new highs.
BTC has dropped from $116,885 to $110,180 over the past four days.
Analysis from CCN found that one of the reasons for the substantial drop was a massive sell-off by a long-term holder.
Data from Lookonchain shows that a trader who had held 100,784 BTC for over seven years, worth about $642 million at the time of acquisition moved to liquidate a large portion of the stash.
Now valued at over $11 billion, the trader purchased 472,920 Ethereum ($2.22 billion) spot and opened a 135,265 ETH long position ($577 million).
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
