Key Takeaways
- $4.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options exhibit a 1.12 put/call ratio, signaling expectations of a price decline.
- Call options are bets that the price will go up (bullish); put options are bets that the price will go down (bearish).
- Historical trends indicate short-term market drops post-expiry, but Uptober could soften the bearish lean.
A massive $5.3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options will expire tonight, and it may be a turbulent period as a majority of these contracts are betting on a downturn for BTC’s price.
Billions in Bitcoin
According to the world’s leading crypto derivatives exchange, Deribit, a sizeable $5.3 billion in options is set to expire on its platform.
Historically, these huge expiry events have rocked the markets, sparking price volatility as well as establishing bullish (call options) or bearish (put options) sentiment.
Bitcoin dominates this round with $4.3 billion in notional value. This expiry leans mildly bearish with a 1.12 put/call ratio, revealing traders expect a little more downside for BTC.
Ethereum accounts for $940 million with a bullish 0.9 put/call ratio.
What Happens Next?
Options contracts, bets on whether BTC and ETH will rise or fall, will get triggered at midnight.
Traders will then have to decide to either roll over positions (close old bets and open new ones), exercise winners (cash in profits), or lapse (the option becomes worthless, and the premium is lost).
In this instance, Deribit posits a max pain of $117,000 for BTC, and $4,400 for ETH, which could pin market prices below recent highs in the short-to-medium term.
Note, “max pain” is a concept that refers to the price at which the greatest number of options contracts would expire worthless. It does not reflect the worst-case scenario for an asset’s price.
Historical Trends
Looking to December 2024, when markets were running red hot, a massive $11.8 billion worth of options contracts were set to expire on Dec. 27. This would be around ten days after BTC hit an ATH of $106,000.
BTC floated between $94,000-$96,000 on Dec. 27, and bottomed out at just under $92,000. Briefly after, BTC scraped above $106,000 for a moment.
Bitcoin then traded below its Dec. 2024 high until May 2025.
In late August 2025, $11.7 billion in Bitcoin options expired, and the max pain price was set at $116,000. Ethereum also faced a $3.2 billion expiry event.
At this time, a confluence of factors, including bearish apprehension of the event and a Binance outage, saw BTC sink below that max pain level, briefly driving it under $110,000.
On Sept. 19, 2025, a $4.3 billion BTC and ETH expiry on Deribit triggered short-term volatility, sending markets downwards in the weeks that followed.
By Sept. 27, BTC had slumped to around $109,500; Ethereum fell to under $3,900.
Notably, September is crypto’s worst-performing month, which has earned it the name “Redtember.” Fortunately, it’s often preceded by a bullish October, affectionately referred to as “Uptober”.
However, with tonight’s $5.3 expirery leaning bearish for Bitcoin, bullish sentiment may not be enough to stop a notable downward spiral if the $117,000 max pain theory is reached.
Eddie is a gaming and crypto writer at CCN. Covering the often weird and wonderful world of Web3 with an adoring, but skeptical eye.
Prior to CCN, Eddie has spent the past seven years working his way through the crypto, finance, and technology industry. He began with PR and journalism with Bitcoin PR Buzz and BitcoinNews.com, eventually working his way to become a copywriter with a dozen firms, including the likes of Polkadot before returning to journalism in 2023.
Having studied Radio production and journalism at University in the UK, Eddie spent a few years making podcasts and presenting on a local London radio station as he built up his writing chops.
A lifelong skateboarder, Eddie can often be found at the skatepark or touring the streets looking for something new to try. That, or kicking back playing JRPGs on his original PSP.
